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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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I want you all to know I am digging my patio furniture out of storage specifically for snow photographs.  I’m very surprised I haven’t been issued a Blizzard Warning yet, considering I can almost see Eastern Long Island from the shore here in Westerly.  This is such a fascinating storm.  Thanks for all the good information folks!

Clarification:  A Blizzard warning would help my case calling off some masonry I’m supposed to do tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't know why some on here are so obsessed about having or not having blizzard warnings, Its not like your getting more snow, Just more wind with blowing and drifting.

It's just the whole idea of the thing....you know...A Blizzard Warning Man...doesn't happen too often so it makes a Weenie feel good.

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Summary as we enter the 18z suite:

Decent consensus of 12z Euro / 18z NAM / 12z GFS

18z 3k NAM / 6z 12k NAM seem to be most western outliers

0z / 6z / 12z RGEM / CMC consistently drier and eastern outliers, 0z + 12z RGEM most similar

While steadiness of Euro makes me favor 12z Euro / 18z NAM / 12z GFS blend, I'm still nervous that chasing convection is confusing guidance and we go apesh*t 3k NAM-style on the one hand or Messenger-style shredded dry RGEM on the other.

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean...almost every model has the seclusion. It's not tropical. All of the hires models are sub 950 and the globals are 950s.

I'm not questioning the pressures. I don't understand the warm seclusion physics leading to rapid intensification. This clearly isn't going through normal mid latitude cyclone/TC development. I did some quick reading up on it; but there doesn't seem to be any text book universal "model" for how these systems strengthen...

Additionally this system continues to intensify long after H5 occlusion....What's driving that? 

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well my area went from 3-6 inches to 10-14 inches by the NWS...guess they feel the storm is going to push the snow more west than previously thought.  WE take.  

Who knows? My take is if this doesn't remain a warm secluded (convoluted) beast, the SLP track should theoretically be 100+ miles further west--where the cold front and warm front intersects....But none of the current guidance is maintaining this look. Instead, guidance appears to be bouncing back and forth, from a warm seclusion to an amplifying wave that packs the thickness gradient....

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It's just the whole idea of the thing....you know...A Blizzard Warning Man...doesn't happen too often so it makes a Weenie feel good.

Ya.....it was fun last year walking around downtown Boston by TD Garden in the blizzard last February......IIRC they hoisted the blizzy warning some time that morning as the thing really started cranking.......great scene......

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