Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah it has that post-occlusion look to the precip distribution to me on the hourly panels. Not sure that's right but wouldn't be totally surprised if it is more of a "shredded radar" vs. uniform precip shield kind of storm. 

I mean...almost every model has the seclusion. It's not tropical. All of the hires models are sub 950 and the globals are 950s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah it has that post-occlusion look to the precip distribution to me on the hourly panels. Not sure that's right but wouldn't be totally surprised if it is more of a "shredded radar" vs. uniform precip shield kind of storm. 

Perhaps I'm misreading this but the only way I understand that early "cut-off" at H5 is for the models to be seeing a bonafide TC at those hours, which makes no sense to me. How else is this "cut off" while being so disconnected from the cold air behind it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean...almost every model has the seclusion. It's not tropical. All of the hires models are sub 950 and the globals are 950s.

Agreed that the warm seclusion is right, just not sure what the radar presentation is going to look like tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if it's shredded and we have weenie meltdowns, potentially including myself. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxBlue said:

Yes. It's been a long day at work.

 

No worries!

 I’m not getting much of a handle on this from models, NWS or anywhere else for that matter.  It just seems like it’s a very difficult storm to forecast and right now it’s a big, hot mess!  I reckon I’m confused and have data overload from this thing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Agreed that the warm seclusion is right, just not sure what the radar presentation is going to look like tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if it's shredded and we have weenie meltdowns, potentially including myself. 

Yeah...it's tough man. You know how it goes. Every once in awhile you get a system that seems to have a consensus and then you get some surprises. Mega convection and a 950mb low doesn't leave me with confidence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

 

No worries!

 I’m not getting much of a handle on this from models, NWS or anywhere else for that matter.  It just seems like it’s a very difficult storm to forecast and right now it’s a big, hot mess!  I reckon I’m confused and have data overload from this thing!

Plan on 10-14" with some wind, Unless we can sit under a band, Your a little further NE then me and i'm thinking 12" here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...it's tough man. You know how it goes. Every once in awhile you get a system that seems to have a consensus and then you get some surprises. Mega convection and a 950mb low doesn't leave me with confidence.

Yep, agreed. There will definitely be some funky things to track tomorrow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...