40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, tunafish said: Good point, thank you. Things may end up east a bit, which would benefit us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sound reasoning. Thoughts on totals? I actually liked the look and distribution of the 06z hi-res RGEM. Picks up on the fronto band as well as the deformation band. The red stripe is 40mm. Orange is 30-40mm so an so forth. I'd cut back on the western and northern edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I actually liked the look and distribution of the 06z hi-res RGEM. Picks up on the fronto band as well as the deformation band. The red stripe is 40mm. Orange is 30-40mm so an so forth. I'd cut back on the western and northern edges. I'd gladly take that here..that works just fine for Central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree its less likely...but I don't trust this system..the dynamics and power on display here is difficult for any model to harness...spoken from someone who wants nothing to do with a Berkshire bonanza. I agree, though..if modeling is correct, that outcome is pretty unlinlkely. Never say never, but I'm pretty much tossing them until I see a reason to give them more than an extreme goalpost scenario type weighting. This is like those nam runs before the Jan '15 blizzard that were jackpotting NNJ over to MPM. Meanwhile, the RGEM was pretty consistently saying there would be a pretty sharp cutoff near ORH. Our mid-level center is tracking outside of ACK...even on the 06z NAM it did. It is pretty hard to get those types of solutions with the synoptics the way they are...and especially true when we take into account that we are in a progressive pattern. If there was more blocking downstream it would be easier to turn this left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 gfs looking closer to the coast thru 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Should be a little better 12z GFS run from the 6z one, Looks a tic or two west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can still see GFS at hr 18 struggling with the multiple SLP's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Full steam burial on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 yea, its west some thru 36. mid levels much better. ema crushed, obviosuly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs is def snowier..esp west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looked a bit W-NW, but was definitely stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah, it didn't really go west as much as it has better looking qpf and a bit more symmetrical circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS still catching up, This is probably going to end up with a track like the 12z NAM had or somewhere close to that in the end i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Im still trying to figure out how we start off as several hours of rain. Is 950mb torched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: yea, its west some thru 36. mid levels much better. ema crushed, obviosuly. It's West?......toss it! lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GFS has a real nice H7-H5 band into CT and central MA to srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough to argue with that attm. I did write in the blog that I thought someone was going to end up with 18-20". I just couldn't figure out if its the rte 24 area of northern Worcester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A definite improvement for CT with this run, 6+ for BDR on east. Hopefully we can get one more trend west to make all of CT happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The track is pretty much locking in imo, its the subtle dofferences with convection and dual lows that we are still in the dark with. I guess that affects banding and how far west the inflow gets but the surface low wont hug over ELI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Im still trying to figure out how we start off as several hours of rain. Is 950mb torched? 18z Thursday has 925mb at ~2C from a Hull to Newport line. That's the warmest it gets and I thinks it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Who's going to the Bay of Fundy? 100' waves anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z Thursday has 925mb at ~2C from a Hull to Newport line. That's the warmest it gets and I thinks it's overdone. It is. GFS can not handle low levels well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM and GFS now look broadly in agreement, I mean, less the NAM juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I guess it's now 18z or bust for me to get another push westward. I think the 3-5" I had at this time yesterday is where NW Mass lands. Can we say congrats Maine, again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: It is. GFS can not handle low levels well. Just way too much northerly drain to warm anything more than 10mi off the Canal in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not looking good for coastal peeps...this has damage on the water written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GFS has a real nice H7-H5 band into CT and central MA to srn NH. You think it’s git right idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The track is pretty much locking in imo, its the subtle dofferences with convection and dual lows that we are still in the dark with. I guess that affects banding and how far west the inflow gets but the surface low wont hug over ELI. How much affect could latent heat release from extreme convection have on downstream ridging and ultimate track? It seems like this piece of the puzzle might be tough to handle with such a rapidly deepening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 That's a great look for E MA to verify Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just way too much northerly drain to warm anything more than 10mi off the Canal in this setup. Track SE of the benchmark and an arctic airmass in place. Tough to get mixing that far inland, i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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