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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Would be funny if the NAM verifies, textbook scenario when the biggest snow totals occur in a completely different location than forecasted

I’m looking south on that map, places like inside the OBX.  I just don’t see a foot and a half of snow there.  Could verify, but I think many spots are ridiculous.  They would be completely immobilized!

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1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

I think the Nam will certainly correct itself a bit but the meso models have been all over this thing much better in my opinion. Think the global s have been struggling to deal with all the convection down south

 

 

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Since the euro is also a meso of sorts it should be the go to and that’s why it almost always is.   I think you’ll be able to seal the 12z output today and mail it in.

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20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

03z SREFs are pretty "juiced" NE DIPA style.

f12s45.thumb.gif.ff76ac025aecea651b11220fe912d245.giff60.thumb.gif.0886a2e05d4c0b56ed5cf9f83839490a.gif

A lot of those members seem to suggest that the northern stream impinges the height field out west. Even the ARW members that usually give Pfreak his fantasy feet. A flag, but not sure it's one I can take seriously.

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19 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Wasn’t there a storm in January 2011, maybe 11-12th timeframe, where the nam led the way up to the event and ended up the winner? Blind squirrel type moment 

I think that one was pretty well done on the globals. Maybe the 27th storm? I recall the globals struggling with that one.

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6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is top analog for a storm coming out of bahamas and railing us @such a low pressure?

Hurricane Carol (1954)!?

Was wondering the same.

Part of why I was rubbing my eyes at first. It's not often we get a miller A originating in Bahamas that seems to occlude by NC/VA yet continues to deepen and jackpots SNE.

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