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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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4 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said:

Oh, also GEFS clowns: QX1qdfm.gif

That GEFS mean must be reflecting a lot of taint for E MA areas, since the total qpf for those areas is 1-1.25".  Yet we only get 6-7 inches of snow from that.  The 42 hour depiction shows much of that area above freezing at the surface.  I'm not buying this GEFS.  Either that, or these clown maps are worse than I thought.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They were getting OES combined with CF stuff for awhile in addition to synoptic stuff. Very high ratio too. BOX radar went out, but WCVB kept showing some pretty heavy bands. I never heard of the measuring every hour, but I know what I had and it was a solid 2'. Have some nice pics too. I agree the 78 reference is over the top, but it was a solid 2' storm in BOS.

For the record, you could measure every hour but you only get to report the highest amount in the 6 hour window. :weenie:

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The GEFS's are SO far west, I get 12" in none of them, but half of them have 12"....... to my NW.  While the main scare here for days has been IS this going to come West enough.  Why are models so vaied THIS close in?  Jeez.  Government: PLEASE put more money in weather models.  Sign, everyone.  

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1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

The GEFS's are SO far west, I get 12" in none of them, but half of them have 12"....... to my NW.  While the main scare here for days has been IS this going to come West enough.  Why are models so vaied THIS close in?  Jeez.  Government: PLEASE put more money in weather models.  Sign, everyone.  

Look at my first call map...no suprise.

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For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low.

WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast.

Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England.

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1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

We're also within 24 hours.......that has to mean something....

True. The gefs gave me some optimism but I feel like I’ve had that same feeling 5 times already with this storm just to be let done. I have to imagine we will finally have some clarity by 12z tomorrow.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low.

WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast.

Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England.

This low is forming s of the keys? Jesus...got moisture?

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Euro looks like it may go slightly east....but it's not doing the weird micro-cane thing that 12z did, so we will see by the time it reaches out latitude, It could make up some ground late since 12z took a pretty decent turn right at the last second.

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