wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think beginnings of our surface low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I think a more common sense reason why you get good QPF over areas of subsidence on model output is because those areas of subsidence fluctuate and move. Even the "RI snow hole" grows and shrinks over the duration of a storm. It also doesn't help that the GFS output is either 3 hours or 6 hours depending on time frame, and things are moving around between those output frames. This is why I like the simulated radar on the 3km NAM and the HRRR (once you get close enough) because it's much better at showing how that type of feature will show up at the surface, and it's hour-by-hour. I agree about the time intervals. On bufkit now you can do 1-hr intervals on the GFS out to 120 hours which is sick!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Juno was just ok here IIRC.....right? I remember it being mildly annoying the whole time..... Kind of a bummer for you. I had 20, Boston had like 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ice1972 said: Juno was just ok here IIRC.....right? I remember it being mildly annoying the whole time..... Probably gonna be nothing great here unfortunately....unless we get another tick West. But a few inches of snow is better than no inches of snow...so I’ll take it and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Chris, do you have that H7 banding map for the 12z euro? I do but can't reproduce those images. But I can say it is a bit west of the 18z GFS image I posted. Not by much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Kind of a bummer for you. I had 20, Boston had like 36. Ya.....Boxing Day was probably the worst.....what a terrible POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ray, i reluctantly put the pipe down. Do you believe hobbyists usually go too low or too high w accumulations. 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 500 mb is starting to get a little too high (cold) for significant banding. That 700 mb map I showed is sort of right in the sweet spot for dendritic growth. Thank you for the response How many hours are those areas on your shaded map looking like they could potentially see banding for. 2/4/6? Thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I do but can't reproduce those images. But I can say it is a bit west of the 18z GFS image I posted. Not by much though. That is what I expected. Thank...I like my spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ryan is the best at softening the blow of uncertainty....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Christian, if depends on the hobbyist...but some sports are def. getting over 12" imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ray, i reluctantly put the pipe down. Do you believe hobbyists usually go too low or too high w accumulations. Thank you for the response How many hours are those areas on your shaded map looking like they could potentially see banding for. 2/4/6? Thank you very much Looks like someone in NE MA/SE NH could get into it for more than 6 hours at the pivot point. Verbatim, a little east of ASH maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Have a hunch the EURO may tick east a hair tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Looks like someone in NE MA/SE NH could get into it for more than 6 hours at the pivot point. Verbatim, a little east of ASH maybe. Same page....my first call was predicated on a continued west trend, but should that not transpire, then I should be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Christian, if depends on the hobbyist...but some sports are df. getting over 12" imo. Christian? I thought his name was pickles. I had a poodle named pickles...called her picky for short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have a hunch the EURO may tick east a hair tonight. I tend to agree, but I will say the convection will be the wildcard. If we get that nascent low to form a little farther west down by Bimini, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The hard part for me won't be settling for 4" while someone 50 miles E gets 18", I get bummed by missing out on the opportunity to see +SN. No jackpot fetish here, I just like seeing whiteout conditions. The eastern folks can keep their 18-20", just let me get my 4-5" in an hour. LOL this has been my wish through these hundreds of events...let them have their waist deep snows but give me a foot with a few hours of +sn thrown in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 West west west east, they never fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm gonna say that 6" here in West Hartford and I'm good.......plenty of time left in the season to build that pack......season has rocked so far when you combine the cold and the little snow events we've had so far......better than the past two seasons for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well, GEFS nudged west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I tend to agree, but I will say the convection will be the wildcard. If we get that nascent low to form a little farther west down by Bimini, all bets are off. Having it end up west of the current consensus and tonight's 00z euro trend east aren't mutually exclusive. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Probably gonna be nothing great here unfortunately....unless we get another tick West. But a few inches of snow is better than no inches of snow...so I’ll take it and be happy. What about the idea that the banding could set up further west than shown.....thats been discussed with this storm and has shown up in other storms.....I think we're in a decent spot so lets see how we end up.....it won't be meh but it won't be the best ever.....thats fine...plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Another bump west on the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Call me a weenie but I'm actually expecting something more like the hi-res NAM below.. fast moving broad precip shield penetrating inland w/o the huge jackpot in in eastern Mass/RI. Widespread 8-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Another bump west on the GFS ensembles. What’s QPF for western CT into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Another bump west on the GFS ensembles. Damn near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What is top analog for a storm coming out of bahamas and railing us @such a low pressure? Hurricane Carol (1954)!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Man thats like a degree maybe two east of the BM......come on baby.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Christian, if depends on the hobbyist...but some sports are def. getting over 12" imo. Baseball? Football? Golf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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