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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

They will do better then that up there.

Sure hope so!  GYX precip map has us in the 7" range, but any wiggle west will help us!!  I don't know how to access all the fancy products you guys have so I was hoping someone could have a look!  Typically anything west of Crawford Notch gets shafted with these coast huggers but Wildcat/Sunday River/Sugarloaf do well.  7" seems low for my intuition, just wondering what the actual science is hinting towards.  

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

This is looking like one hell of a storm.  Boston area to just southwest to immediate north shore  looks to get burried in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now.

This will be big in eastern New England.  You could take it to the bank days ago.  Going to be fun to watch.

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2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

We see the gfs driving hurricanes through ridges and we know thats impossible so its solutions are discounted regularly...as long as the 3k nam has a big hit it will have friends the in this thread, lol

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

lol, The snowiest models get hugged, And the rest are tossed, In all seriousness, The RGEM/Euro have been a good combo up here with some weight on the GFS with its known bias.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have never seen anything like this...at the risk of hyperbole, I was really trying to articulate that in my blog....I mean, 94mb pressure gradient? Yikes....like, and then James woke up and washed his sheets.

I would have been ashamed to suggest that as possible.

This could do some strange, Dec 23, 1997 like things that are going to just violate a lot of forecasts.

Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west.

Probably like green mountains I’m thinking 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. 

I dropped a 20-bomb on my first call and and thinking long and hard about where I go from here.

You don't need a lot of time to get stupid in a system of this ilk.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sometimes when I see these really intense solutions I'll step back and try to figure out if it's completely garbage or if it's trying to suggest something. In this case I think this is trying to tell us something and what the NAM is saying that there will be a great deal of moisture getting thrown into this system and a tremendous amount of warm/moist air (+10C at 850) getting thrown into air that is like -5C at 850mb. There is just so much lift that there will be exceptional moisture being lifted into the SGZ which in the 12-18K range with -15C isotherm going right through it. Now...winds are likely going to rip dendrites apart but this band will have 3-5'' per hour rates and that band is going to persist and sit somewhere for upwards of several hours. To get 2''+ QPF you need many factors...we have those factors here. 

Great post. I believe Scott has mentioned the whole shredded dendrites in wind issue is often overblown.

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