Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said: There is, and it’s called being into the grey shadings (which part of MA appears to be). I wonder what the snowfall rates would be in that if you can get that to go over you? Maybe 2-3" per Hour rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Shamelessly purloined from Bluewave. Dude's digging up gold. Uncertainty.... As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance. Nah sbox says sampling don't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Nah sbox says sampling don't matter You miss my point. I said weenies use it as a crutch often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Recon flights are a totally different animal. Means the storm means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Greg said: I wonder what the snowfall rates would be in that if you can get that to go over you? Maybe 2-3" per Hour rates? Try 4 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I've been following the uncertainty in the track of this storm via the NWS forecast discussion updates for GYX. I've generally been a pessimist, but the afternoon update provided a ray of hope that the Whites and Western Maine could get some snow out of this one. And by "some" I mean a foot+. I'll take whatever we can get! Though I imagine most of it will be scoured off the trails with the intense wind setting up behind it. With forecasted highs on Sat topping out @ -5ºF (and that's for like the town of North Conway), it won't make for very enjoyable skiing/riding a lift. I hiked the Sherb today just to stay warm and get some skiing in. Christmas week was brutal! I've read a few pages back in this thread - seems there are some reasons to feel as though we could see a few more ticks to the west? GYX calling for a 7" event in my area at this point. Should I cross my fingers for good news tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, klw said: In case anyone was wondering about lowest surface pressures in the area, this site breaks it down by month and has another map to show the dates. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html Lowest January pressures were associated with teh Cleveland bomb of Jan 78. Maine had a 957 in Feb 76 and 954 in Dec 42, LI had a 951.6 in 1914. Obviously it only shows the onland surfacce pressures so not the most applicable here. Really random factoid, but that 951 storm in 1914 storm washed away the old golf house on Fishers Island, which had been foolishly built over a beach, and forced the membership to set it back much farther from the water's edge. Anyway, apologies for the digression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Try 4 to 5 Now that's some heavey rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: You miss my point. I said weenies use it as a crutch often. It's a very real phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, bboughton said: Not sure if this was posted: Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this pushed up further for ORH and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Should the Ne ocean enhancement combine with best lift over SE mass, is the RI (snow-hole)watch in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z NAM is rollin' in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 21z SREF "12hr mean snowfall". That orange zone is 10-11". Impressive signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can we get back to this system? NAM out to 14 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can we get back to this system? NAM out to 14 hours... 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Should the Ne ocean enhancement combine with best lift over SE mass, is the RI (snow-hole)watch in effect The ocean enhancement should get Cape Ann down through Boston, Weymouth, Middleboro to New Bedford. At least the way it looks right now unless future changes occure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Can we get back to this system? NAM out to 14 hours... Yeah, Enough about the tv mets, I think i already like the 0z Nam, Looks like northern stream is digging further south and the trough a tic west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 More tucked at 15 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: 12 hrs 19 for me. Not a discernible change vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So when you live in Florida.... you get a Winter Storm Warning... for this? That's Real Weenies in it's true definition. "Mixed Precipitation" / "One Inch" ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: With the mature low pressure at our latitude...I think the western half of New England will be shredded bands. So the potential for surprise is there but it will be in narrow bands. Like one town gets 6-7" (and everyone is like see we said it would snow out west, lol), where some cyclonic band rotates through for hours on end, but the majority is within 2-5" larger scale advisory snows. Still 36 hours to see changes though. hoping for bands after bands of 2-3" / hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WintersComing said: 12 hrs Lol come on man. At least go to IWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Definitely more tucked in the early panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Lol come on man. At least go to IWM Haha....I know I was just teasin and trying to get everyone back on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely more tucked in the early panels Yip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah, Northern stream better, Southern stream better more tucked in, Through sharper, I would be shocked if this doesn't end up west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thru 21hrs looks like slightly better stream interaction, slightly deeper and more tilted trough... would expect this to bring it more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Really dug this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely more tucked in the early panels It's looking good Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Much more tucked down near SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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