dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I haven't seen any model bring much "warming" into the area above 925mb. Seems to restricted to below that level, so unless there is some wonky warm layer, I see precip rates overcoming that. We'll see lower ratios than the MLs (10:1 vs say 20:1) but will see a solid thumping. Would be nice to see this area get the fronto band followed by the ML deformation. Doesn't sound like your asking for much.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any thoughts on ratios based on current soundings? 15:1 in the new haven area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I haven't seen any model bring much "warming" into the area above 925mb. Seems to restricted to below that level, so unless there is some wonky warm layer, I see precip rates overcoming that. We'll see lower ratios than the MLs (10:1 vs say 20:1) but will see a solid thumping. Would be nice to see this area get the fronto band followed by the ML deformation. The only concern I have is that it gets borderline at like 950-925. That could make it dicey, but I think that it more for canal east. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hoping for the Hail Mary with the 00z runs. Ain't happening though--I've seen this way too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, ajisai said: Pete bhttps://i.imgur.com/seb6F9Z.jpg That looks low... I'd think you can put 12"+ along the coastal counties and then 6-12" from TOL-ORH-CON eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Doesn't sound like your asking for much.............. Gotta make up for all the lost snows this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Hoping for the Hail Mary with the 00z runs. Ain't happening though--I've seen this way too many times. Just isn't that type of storm. We've known this for days, not sure why you keep torturing yourself, haha. Going to be a fun one to watch for the BOS folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 52 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea I think we’ll eventually lose the “kick” altogether. We’ve lost the warm core look on most guidance through hr 42 or so, but it seems to come back after that point to some degree, resulting in the further east movement (away from the cold air) which is counter to mid latitude cyclone development. It should be losing the warm core characteristics with latitude, not gaining them. Remember, the very cold air and progressive nature of the upper air flow is what is stoping this from just simply coming due north up the coast and crashing into the Rhode Island Conn boarder. If your in eastern MAss, you don't want that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Gotta make up for all the lost snows this year. Well your in a good spot so you could pull it off as long as this doesn't keep going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 BOX's 10% likelihood is pretty anemic for the eastern areas--I'd expect they'd be much higher. I'm still thinking 2-4" for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: BOX's 10% likelihood is pretty anemic for the eastern areas--I'd expect they'd be much higher. I'm still thinking 2-4" for my hood. Quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just able to see the GFS ensembles and holy crap...just a pounding back west into CT...total pounding. Would have to think like a good strip of 12-18'' somewhere back through CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Just able to see the GFS ensembles and holy crap...just a pounding back west into CT...total pounding. Would have to think like a good strip of 12-18'' somewhere back through CT Where can I find the 18GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I know this was probably already picked up, but Heard hurricane hunters recon is going into the storm dubbed "Grayson", because you can get recon missions with hurricane force winter storms right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Where can I find the 18GFS ensembles? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html There are other places but these are the two I have in my bookmarks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: BOX's 10% likelihood is pretty anemic for the eastern areas--I'd expect they'd be much higher. I'm still thinking 2-4" for my hood. This could have the type of gradient where you have 2-4" and 20 mi E of you a place like Shutesbury has 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll take Rays snowfall map in a heartbeat! had me in the 8-14 inch zone..we take. also nice write up Ray. Ya loved that write up.....I believe it was Ray who has said all along wagons west.....that map would reflect that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html There are other places but these are the two I have in my bookmarks Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I'm working on a blog post/snow map and I almost don't even want to do a snow map right now lol...there's just too many unknowns and the range potential is just too high. There is zero way to really know where the CCB will setup and that doesn't only influence where the jackpot zones are but it also influences who sucks on subsidence for a good amount of time. I'm even uncertain how expansive the precip shield will be...although this point is more due to lack of knowledge. I want to feel like that since this thing is going to be insanely deep that two things will happen; 1) The core of the precip shield is confined closer to the center of the storm and 2) Will precip end up being more bandy...like what happened in Boxing Day in 2009...that too could also introduce areas of subsidence. Can’t wait to read it.....every storm different....and Fuk Boxing Day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just isn't that type of storm. We've known this for days, not sure why you keep torturing yourself, haha. Going to be a fun one to watch for the BOS folks. it really only is 100 miles or so though so i think it is reasonable to have hope....I don't understand why this cannot track to just south of Montauk with the right airmass in place....it is like orh to bos become as far away as California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This could have the type of gradient where you have 2-4" and 20 mi E of you a place like Shutesbury has 4-8". So he can have 4" and so can a place 20 miles away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I wonder how much this storm can wobble west with this really cold air in place and progressive flow. Maybe a few nautical miles but not the 50-100 mile struts we have seen. I think the goal post are pretty much in place as it looks now unles something huge happens atmosphericaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Ya loved that write up.....I believe it was Ray who has said all along wagons west.....that map would reflect that..... To bad the wagon's wheels fell off at Hubb's house. 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Busiest dead zone in quite awhile. Agreed--boring. How were Dr. Mel's maps? He seemed like a weenie at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: it really only is 100 miles or so though so i think it is reasonable to have hope....I don't understand why this cannot track to just south of Montauk with the right airmass in place....it is like orh to bos become as far away as California The potential for a surprise is certainly there, I am just very reserved based on what's currently modeled. There will even be screw zones near the CP I'm sure. You know, 5" differences across town in a place like Taunton or Bridgewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just pure crushage for parts of NE MA. Nothing better than being into the black shadings on these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Greg said: Take a look at what was on the ground and tell me it was like '78 with just about 30" on the ground from the storm alone. Both had just about 3" to start with yet there was only 19" on ground left for the 2003 storm. So what happened? Harvey Leonard and Todd Gross verified that it was measured every hour. Simliar to what some mid-Atlantic people do but shouldn't. They were getting OES combined with CF stuff for awhile in addition to synoptic stuff. Very high ratio too. BOX radar went out, but WCVB kept showing some pretty heavy bands. I never heard of the measuring every hour, but I know what I had and it was a solid 2'. Have some nice pics too. I agree the 78 reference is over the top, but it was a solid 2' storm in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: The potential for a surprise is certainly there, I am just very reserved based on what's currently modeled. There will even be screw zones near the CP I'm sure. You know, 5" differences across town in a place like Taunton or Bridgewater. With the mature low pressure at our latitude...I think the western half of New England will be shredded bands. So the potential for surprise is there but it will be in narrow bands. Like one town gets 6-7" (and everyone is like see we said it would snow out west, lol), where some cyclonic band rotates through for hours on end, but the majority is within 2-5" larger scale advisory snows. Still 36 hours to see changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 In case anyone was wondering about lowest surface pressures in the area, this site breaks it down by month and has another map to show the dates. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html Lowest January pressures were associated with teh Cleveland bomb of Jan 78. Maine had a 957 in Feb 76 and 954 in Dec 42, LI had a 951.6 in 1914. Obviously it only shows the onland surfacce pressures so not the most applicable here. White Juan hit 959 http://www.novaweather.net/Blizzard_2004/Blizzard_summary.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Just pure crushage for parts of NE MA. Nothing better than being into the black shadings on these There is, and it’s called being into the grey shadings (which part of MA appears to be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Midnight models will be very interesting to disect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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