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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, jbenedet said:

It was west at hr 39, with the H5 capture. The qpf had precip out to philly. It did trend slightly east of 12z run after that.

The run was unusual after hr 39 imo...Still having some issues with this warm core/warm occlusion in my view, but less so than the previous run.

Agree....I think there are gonna be a few more of these wobble runs

 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

So what about us Central Peeps...we see any love from this run??

Yeah, best banding on this NAM run probably gets out to about ORH and then heads back east but widespread light/moderate snows west of there.  Probably advisory level. 

It's not the gang-busters run of the 12z though.

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With the high winds looks like power outages and cold will probably lead to some fatalities and a lot of damage that will cost hundreds of millions to replace... not good.  I worry about the elderly and low income people who once they lose power could succumb to the below zero temps Saturday.  Scary stuff to consider when frothing at the mouth over the opportunity to shovel. 

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2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

we are gonna watch another 2 footer in some of the eastern zones...i will not live long enough to see regression

just mindboggling

if there was a way to give you my few inches i would

It's their climate.  Less events but bigger totals when they happen.

The further inland you get the number of events increases but the accumulations per event go down. 

I don't think its ever going to regress to CEF getting their annual average in 1-2 foot storms.

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1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

we are gonna watch another 2 footer in some of the eastern zones...i will not live long enough to see regression

just mindboggling

 

if there was a way to give you my few inches i would

Ha, I'm going to have to put you and MPM on ignore by tomorrow so I don't spiral into depression.  

This looks like it will be a wound up bomb far enough East that I refuse to get sucked into false hopes.  You should still be a lock for 4" there but this was never an I-91 storm.  Be happy with the refresh is the best advice. 

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