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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be.

Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient.  In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite.

 

Given the upper levels early on, I'd expect the QPF queens to be pretty happy in another run or two. It's going to reflect the ground truth better as we get closer. Euro tries to open it up late and slide east, but that probably is not going to happen based on the progression of all other guidance so far. It's like it can handle the convection until about 36-42 hours and then it runs it east...

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I could be wrong, but HFD-CEF on west will do better than 2". Just my two pennies. Probably you as well. 

Yeah I agree to some extent.  I think we'll get some cyclonic backside flow that should keep snows going up here so that we piecemeal together a whole bunch of 6-hour measurements of like 1.2" lol and maybe J.Spin ends up with 5".

I will say, I am worried about ratios and I don't think this is a slam dunk "out west will have better ratios" because of how cold the air mass is.  I'm not just assuming 20:1 or 30:1 fluff like a lot of folks will just toss out there.  The snow growth zone is at the surface and mid-level lift is above that.  Bullets and columns and all that fun arctic stuff.

Though if you do get into a band, its probably a few streaks of better ratios amid a larger shield of arctic sand.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Given the upper levels early on, I'd expect the QPF queens to be pretty happy in another run or two. It's going to reflect the ground truth better as we get closer. Euro tries to open it up late and slide east, but that probably is not going to happen based on the progression of all other guidance so far. It's like it can handle the convection until about 36-42 hours and then it runs it east...

Yeah I agree with that... something funky happened between hour 42/48 and like 60/66.

It looked like it was priming to track over the Cape or something early on.

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The changes on the OP 12z EURO aloft were absurd for this time frame. The 250mb jet is misplaced like 500 miles. 

I'm feeling majorly confident E NE is going to see an all-timer honestly. This is going to keep improving I have no doubt. 

I wish I could afford a road trip right now, anyone want to let me stay with them for a few days? lol

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The "whole region" does not really mean the whole region.  :)

The QPF as depicted is probably wrong of course because all 60+ hour QPF forecasts are, but I was expecting much brighter colors with the excitement in here lol, and we are all queens to some extent, especially when watching a run come out. 

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15 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Hi Tip what would it take for it to be all snow for Nova Scotia more of a east track?. Just trying to learn. This system dynamics are very different and the rain/snow can be tricky. 

I'm not very precisely privy to the nuances of NS' storm behavior wrt to how the ocean impacts... In one regard, you're pretty much a peninsula-island hybrid, which means you are essentially a heavily marine climate influenced in the minimum, but, you are also surrounding by some very cold water...  So "direct" taint by means of ocean influence, ...it isn't the same as down our way.  Nick would probably have a better idea there... 

As far as stand cyclone model stuff... yeah, you want them underneath as a general rule of thumb.  That means the N wall of the cyclone is in a the cool sector.. 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

And look at the 850 mb winds at hr 48 on the 12z euro. That looks a lot more like a TC than a mid latitude cyclone; that's for sure...

Maybe it will be an invest soon...lol.  Anyway I'm looking forward to being in the eastern eyewall. should be a tad breezy.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In my rough anecdotal observations, the best mid-level banding is often just to the west of where the models think the greatest QPF gradient will be.

Find that QPF gradient and the mid-level magic finds itself right on the lower side of that gradient.  In the EURO run it's probably like ORH to Dendrite.

 

Absolutely. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I agree to some extent.  I think we'll get some cyclonic backside flow that should keep snows going up here so that we piecemeal together a whole bunch of 6-hour measurements of like 1.2" lol and maybe J.Spin ends up with 5".

I will say, I am worried about ratios and I don't think this is a slam dunk "out west will have better ratios" because of how cold the air mass is.  I'm not just assuming 20:1 or 30:1 fluff like a lot of folks will just toss out there.  The snow growth zone is at the surface and mid-level lift is above that.  Bullets and columns and all that fun arctic stuff.

Though if you do get into a band, its probably a few streaks of better ratios amid a larger shield of arctic sand.

H7 temps are near -16 even to the Berks, so that will help. Some lift is shown there. The euro did some weird stuff as Will and the Pope explained. Almost looked like a hurricane when looking at H5. I'm just going by some instincts here and model bias. I think HFD-CEF and probably a bit west are going to get some good snows. 

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That looks beautiful at 42 and 48 hours... H5 is much cleaner phase but then its almost like it opens up again and pushes east a bit.

If that kept its trajectory from 36 to 48 hours it's passing right off the upper Cape but it kicks hard east at the last minute to pretty much exactly where it was at 00z.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I agree with that... something funky happened between hour 42/48 and like 60/66.

It looked like it was priming to track over the Cape or something early on.

 

Yeah...and I think as the critical hours reach our latitude, you will see the track correct west. There's obviously a limit to it without much downstream blocking...this sucker's gonna want to move....but that convection seems to cause the models to correct west further and further up the coast everytime that 36-42 hour window reaches them....like right now, it's near NC/VA...you saw a big jump west down there this run. Like literally 100+ miles...that's a big move by the Euro for inside of 48 hours.

 

There's obviously other factors than can try and offset the movement west too...like the southern stream trends a little weaker or northern stream a little faster...stuff like that. But all else equal, I expect another bump or two west. Euro has already made a pretty big concession to the non-hydrostatic models. They are winning the model war right now.

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