moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Heartened by the 06z runs. Do or die at 12z. If can continue the shift west, I'm all in. I wonder if I can finagle getting up to Pit2 for this. They look to be demolished--I'd love to have an anemometer there! .5 off a -2.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NWS BOX: Generally the 00z model guidance is in agreement with this system. However the 00z GFS appears to be on the eastern end of the envelope with both wind and QPF. Thus trended the forecast toward WPC/EPS/GEFS and UKMET to account for latest trends in this system, which is a bit more wet than 12z. This resulted in a bit more QPF and stronger winds for this forecast. Latest 06z NAM has trended a bit farther west and push the 850mb low right over the benchmark. Hopefully this is not a trend or else will need to expand all watches farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hideous snow hole over Kevin's head that run. We are starting to see the model war I speculated on last night. The non-hydrostatics are taking this west. Still a bit too early to be using those models too seriously but by tonight's runs they will be inside 48 hours. That’s the 2” an hour rate monster band that will be setting up over our heads!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Down East, ftw. http://www.weather.gov/car/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: NWS BOX: Generally the 00z model guidance is in agreement with this system. However the 00z GFS appears to be on the eastern end of the envelope with both wind and QPF. Thus trended the forecast toward WPC/EPS/GEFS and UKMET to account for latest trends in this system, which is a bit more wet than 12z. This resulted in a bit more QPF and stronger winds for this forecast. Latest 06z NAM has trended a bit farther west and push the 850mb low right over the benchmark. Hopefully this is not a trend or else will need to expand all watches farther west. Oh how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great to see the non stop trends overnight. Big snows back past Berks! 6z RGEM gives you two inches, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, qg_omega said: 6z RGEM gives you two inches, congrats Learn some things dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is a 940smb Winter storm lol! Who can I stay with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 6z RGEM crushes the coastline. That subby hole in the CTRV has been showing up on a few of these runs. Do we think that may be a legit feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What is the general thought on the winds for the coast areas, or is it a bit early for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is a 940smb Winter storm lol! Who can I stay with? get a hotel in Portland. Great town, lots to do, great walks, restaurants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Learn some things dude I still think this is one of those deals that corrects west up until game time. Possibly such that the Cape runs into type probs. Gonna be a lot of latent heat release down south pumping heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: That subby hole in the CTRV has been showing up on a few of these runs. Do we think that may be a legit feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: I still think this is one of those deals that corrects west up until game time. Possibly such that the Cape runs into type probs. Gonna be a lot of latent heat release down south pumping heights. NAM looks to already have ptype issues Cape and Plymouth County. Warm air overdone there? I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: NAM looks to already have ptype issues Cape and Plymouth County. Warm air overdone there? I hope. I hope so too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: NAM looks to already have ptype issues Cape and Plymouth County. Warm air overdone there? I hope. With the current look I wouldn't be too concerned, at least in Plymouth. I was referring more to a scenario kind of like last March where the heights pump and the low keeps correcting west right to the event. There's prob a ceiling as far as how west this can get, but a low crossing the elbow has shown up a few times. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Felling pretty good right now with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Environment Canada starting to honk. A major winter storm is expected to affect Nova Scotia on Thursday.Long range models are coming into agreement with the track of this storm. Current guidance shows it approaching from the south and passing over central Nova Scotia Thursday night. Potential impacts from this storm include possible power outages, deteriorating travel conditions or delays, and potential school disruptions.Precipitation: Snow will develop Thursday morning and spread northward across the province with a changeover to rain for some parts of the province later in the day or night. Early snowfall estimates of 20 to 30 cm for most of the province. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 mm for southwest Nova Scotia are possible.Wind: Easterly winds will strengthen with gusts near 90 km/h along coastal areas Thursday afternoon. The winds will shift Thursday night and southwesterly gusts possibly reaching 120 km/h are possible along the Atlantic coastal areas of the province. Strong winds combined with snow will give poor visibilities in blowing snow during the storm.Storm Surge: Potential for storm surge along coastal areas west of Halifax down to Baccaro Point as high tide will coincide with the strongest winds and high seas Thursday evening. Large waves and elevated water levels will persist into Friday morning.Environment Canada continues to closely monitor the development of this storm and will provide updates as the storm nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: With the current look I wouldn't be too concerned, at least in Plymouth. I was referring more to a scenario kind of like last March where the heights pump and the low keeps correcting west right to the event. There's prob a ceiling as far as how west this can get, but a low crossing the elbow has shown up a few times. We'll see. Oh how I pray.... My gut says the western goalpost is between 25-50 miles West of the 06NAM and the eastern one is 50 miles east of the EC. We wait for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Environment Canada starting to honk. A major winter storm is expected to affect Nova Scotia on Thursday. Long range models are coming into agreement with the track of this storm. Current guidance shows it approaching from the south and passing over central Nova Scotia Thursday night. Potential impacts from this storm include possible power outages, deteriorating travel conditions or delays, and potential school disruptions. Precipitation: Snow will develop Thursday morning and spread northward across the province with a changeover to rain for some parts of the province later in the day or night. Early snowfall estimates of 20 to 30 cm for most of the province. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 mm for southwest Nova Scotia are possible. Wind: Easterly winds will strengthen with gusts near 90 km/h along coastal areas Thursday afternoon. The winds will shift Thursday night and southwesterly gusts possibly reaching 120 km/h are possible along the Atlantic coastal areas of the province. Strong winds combined with snow will give poor visibilities in blowing snow during the storm. Storm Surge: Potential for storm surge along coastal areas west of Halifax down to Baccaro Point as high tide will coincide with the strongest winds and high seas Thursday evening. Large waves and elevated water levels will persist into Friday morning. Environment Canada continues to closely monitor the development of this storm and will provide updates as the storm nears. If only I could convert metric.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Oh how I pray.... My gut says the western goalpost is between 25-50 miles West of the 06NAM and the eastern one is 50 miles east of the EC. We wait for 12z. 12z will be riveting to be sure. That's when NWS discussions were saying we should have a really good handle on all the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: NAM looks to already have ptype issues Cape and Plymouth County. Warm air overdone there? I hope. Large circulation. Big fetch off the Atlantic, before the winds back. A faster development would help to mitigate this...Regardless, the good news for all areas is the warmth is very shallow...Deep convection would likely keep many areas near the western “mix” margin mostly snow. Difficult forecast for BOX to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Large circulation. Big fetch off the Atlantic, before the winds back. A faster development would help to mitigate this...Regardless, the good news for all areas is the warmth is very shallow...Deep convection would likely keep many areas near the western margin mostly snow. Difficult forecast for BOX to say the least... Do you think this is a situation where warm air noses in for a while and then cold pushes back toward the coast (changeover) as the storm gains latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If only I could convert metric....There is an app for that...lol8"-12"55 - 75mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 BOX limits the cape and islands from significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Do you think this is a situation where warm air noses in for a while and then cold pushes back toward the coast (changeover) as the storm gains latitude? You’re good for 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: You’re good for 6-12. Jerry going big.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: Do you think this is a situation where warm air noses in for a while and then cold pushes back toward the coast (changeover) as the storm gains latitude? Yes. Although there will likely be a narrow area where rates can overcome the low level warming for much of the event. On the flip side, for those into wind; anyone having ptype issues will also be the ones with the big wind threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is a 940smb Winter storm lol! Who can I stay with? Yeah, from a pressure perspective at least this is a BECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Think WxBlue is gonna get his first foot with interest, to go with his days and days of negative lows. Welcome to New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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