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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

That weird mini-cutoff to NE of the primary coastal low probably caused a slight pull to east, but it still rallied to throw the snow slightly more west.

If that southern stream s/w would have been better organized, This would have been a big hit for many as that northern stream s/w was much better then 18z.

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Worse yet ... there's so much instability with all this cold transport heading out over the warm west Atlantic that (I suspect) the fast nature of the flow overtop is contributing to prematurely spinning up and then ejecting the low - i.e. Perhaps too much model sensitivity. 

Another problem is we don't have much downstream blocking here ... that really would help quite a bit

Hi Tip what would it take for it to be all snow for Nova Scotia more of a east track?. Just trying to learn. This system dynamics are very different and the rain/snow can be tricky. 

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Big difference in my eyes this run was the location of the trough axis over Ontario. It was definitively shifted west by a noticeable margin, which reduced the confluence over the NW Atlantic allowing heights to rise and the s/w to tilt negative faster.

if we got a combination the 00z NAM's depiction of that northern branch and the 18z's better southern branch we'd have something big... at least I'd think

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