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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What exactly is the Euro control? I see it and people always get excited about, but it always seems jacked up

It's an ensemble member. There is really nothing that special about it. It's basically just the main ensemble member that all the other ones are run off of. 

Anywys, the EPS look a bit better than the OP to me. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's an ensemble member. There is really nothing that special about it. It's basically just the main ensemble member that all the other ones are run off of. 

Anywys, the EPS look a bit better than the OP to me. 

Scary thought. You start there and either perturb the initial conditions or the number of perturbations introduced. ;)

It's not so much that it's a weenie model, but it is just a coarse version of the op. You'll get some bombs as it tries to resolve the dynamics in play.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Scary thought. You start there and either perturb the initial conditions or the number of perturbations introduced. ;)

It's not so much that it's a weenie model, but it is just a coarse version of the op. You'll get some bombs as it tries to resolve the dynamics in play.

Yeah I never understand the looking at the control run.

Its a lower resolution version of the ECMWF.  It would be like hey here's what the GFS says, and here's what it's coarse lower resolution version says.

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Hm.

It may end up right ... but the overwhelming characteristic during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm.

It may end up right ... but the overwhelming characteristic during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

We hope you’re doing well but that last paragraph is troubling. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm.

It may end up right .levelt the overwhelming characteristic  during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

Thanks for the post.

Bob mentioned the trough orientation but ummm ya i want to know why its not

Phasing.

Ryan mentioned Southern stream was sort of separate and Instead tremendous UpperLevels forcing was responsible For our snow.

What do we need for a phase and capture. Is the lead southern energy ahead of the main S. Stream shortwave Messing the phase up?

 

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