Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Read over at the Philly. wx site the weeklies were better than last run and had the -epo most of the way. lol didnt philly wx say the euro weeklies ended winter last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: lol didnt philly wx say the euro weeklies ended winter last week? I've determined that week 3 is the only value with the weeklies more often than not and even that's a stretch. Beyond that they just jump around. Imho the -epo showed its hand in Nov and hasn't broken down for any length of time yet. Now week 3 keeps it going before going away for week 4 and 5. I'm not betting against it until it goes away in real time. A bunch of us have been saying that the -epo is the primary driver this winter. So collectively we've outperformed the weeklies since the beginning of met winter. I will say the first half of Feb looks decent once the epo comes back but that really doesn't mean jack this year. If you believe the weeklies then the last 10 days of Jan are pretty warm. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It will definitely be frustrating if next week goes down like the 0z GFS. Days and days of SUB freezing highs then 24 hours of above freezing temps with rain and then back into the ice box. I guess welcome to nina winter in the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hopefully next Monday's system trends less amped . Seems that has been the seasonal trend so far. Still a lot of cold just north of us Hopefully we can get better confluence and push the system further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It will definitely be frustrating if next week goes down like the 0z GFS. Days and days of SUB freezing highs then 24 hours of above freezing temps with rain and then back into the ice box. I guess welcome to nina winter in the mid atlantic. We just need to get back into regular precip cycles. Some will be rain of course but with what looks like another arctic high dropping in behind. We just need the pattern to go a little more zonal and bring precip chances every 3-4 days. That's what made 13/14 and 14/15 work. These N-S aligned upper level flow sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nothing to track but rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Interstate said: Nothing to track but rain? I'm also bord tracking another OC blizzard. Looks like we warm up for a couple days next week while we get some much needed rain, then back to cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, Interstate said: Nothing to track but rain? Still 6 days out, so we gotta hope that the storm is less amped and get maybe deliver Snow-rain. Setup is already bad though, and the GEFS has no snow solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lr guidance trying to converge on losing the -epo and going pac zonal for the 3rd week of the month. I say bring it at this point. Will probably morph into cold/dry again but I personally would welcome a break in this cold/snowless torture and flip to a torcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lr guidance trying to converge on losing the -epo and going pac zonal for the 3rd week of the month. I say bring it at this point. Will probably morph into cold/dry again but I personally would welcome a break in this cold/snowless torture and flip to a torcher. I would take a quick torcher and hopefully flip flop this pattern to something at least a bit more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lr guidance trying to converge on losing the -epo and going pac zonal for the 3rd week of the month. I say bring it at this point. Will probably morph into cold/dry again but I personally would welcome a break in this cold/snowless torture and flip to a torcher. sounds like you already gave up on the period which you thought would be exciting for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ji said: sounds like you already gave up on the period which you thought would be exciting for us I'm not sure I'd say I was excited. I said it looked like we would have more precip chances but ending up on the wrong side of the gradient could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I would take a quick torcher and hopefully flip flop this pattern to something at least a bit more favorable. But why are so many assuming it will be a "quick" torcher? I'm always hesitant to give up the cold because what if the warm pattern lasts as long as the cold one did. We would waste the rest of Jan and most of Feb then be in the same spot we always are it feels. Needing a late miracle to even salvage anything from winter. Not saying that's how I think it goes but it's possible. The mjo heading towards bad places right at our snow climo peak bothers me some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But why are so many assuming it will be a "quick" torcher? I'm always hesitant to give up the cold because what if the warm pattern lasts as long as the cold one did. We would waste the rest of Jan and most of Feb then be in the same spot we always are it feels. Needing a late miracle to even salvage anything from winter. Not saying that's how I think it goes but it's possible. The mjo heading towards bad places right at our snow climo peak bothers me some. Isn't the significance of phases 4,5,& 6 fairly low right now? I'm just thinking if it stays relatively weak (some outlooks show it heading towards COD), and its significance is fairly low that would leave the door open for something else to drive the pattern. I do agree though on being very hesitant on any excitement when seeing a "warm pattern", sure it could result in a slight re-shuffle / re-load yielding the east a better hand, or it could ruin the next 3 weeks while everyone analyzes day 14 hoping to see hints of a flip back to cold before winter is out. Best bet in my mind would be to continue this overall pattern, just lessen the intensity of the cold and maybe get some riding in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nice ice to rain to snow storm next week on the GFS. While we have had the cold over the past few weeks it has been wasted. I for one am ready for a reshuffle of the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But why are so many assuming it will be a "quick" torcher? I'm always hesitant to give up the cold because what if the warm pattern lasts as long as the cold one did. We would waste the rest of Jan and most of Feb then be in the same spot we always are it feels. Needing a late miracle to even salvage anything from winter. Not saying that's how I think it goes but it's possible. The mjo heading towards bad places right at our snow climo peak bothers me some. Well, the MJO ran the gauntlet and crapped on us so lets fluke our way instead. lol Both the GFS and CMC show how we can win a gradient storm coming up. GFS is earlier and CMC is later. Before we get hung up on a relax we should see how we fare in the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Well, the MJO ran the gauntlet and crapped on us so lets fluke our way instead. lol Both the GFS and CMC show how we can win a gradient storm coming up. GFS is earlier and CMC is later. Before we get hung up on a relax we should see how we fare in the next 10 days or so. Agreed. It's not like the MJO forecast has been close to accurate so far this winter. In fact it has been dreadful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nice ice to rain to snow storm next week on the GFS. While we have had the cold over the past few weeks it has been wasted. I for one am ready for a reshuffle of the deck. Hopefully we can score something before the relax period. I am in the same boat as you with being to far west so far the season. I'm at about 1.5 inches so far. My concern is we have a few weeks of relaxation and I have the same ugly snow total on February 1st. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I like the GFS look for next Monday/Tuesday much more than previous runs. As @Bob ChiII pointed out the other day, we want the front running northern stream low to get out of the way and let the southern stream stay south of us. This run doesn’t 100% get it done but close. Southern vort is stronger and farther south and gives us a rain to snow deal. Interested to see the ensembles and euro. GGEM is too strong and cuts the low well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 45 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Isn't the significance of phases 4,5,& 6 fairly low right now? I'm just thinking if it stays relatively weak (some outlooks show it heading towards COD), and its significance is fairly low that would leave the door open for something else to drive the pattern. I do agree though on being very hesitant on any excitement when seeing a "warm pattern", sure it could result in a slight re-shuffle / re-load yielding the east a better hand, or it could ruin the next 3 weeks while everyone analyzes day 14 hoping to see hints of a flip back to cold before winter is out. Best bet in my mind would be to continue this overall pattern, just lessen the intensity of the cold and maybe get some riding in the Atlantic. I am not an MJO expert. The correlation is lower then in other phases and months yes, but lower is not non existent. I was just playing devils advocate more then anything else. I do not know how much influence the MJO will have nor do I know how amplified the wave will be into phases 4-6. That is all TBD. But the assumption that we would just flip right out of a torch is unfounded optimism also. I have my doubts we ever actually go into such a pattern. But I never want to give up the cold and go into a crap pattern. A better bet IMO would be to simply adjust the location of the pattern drivers slightly to get a more favorable precip pattern without totally braking things down. People act like the only way to get adjustments is with a total pattern break down and reboot. That isnt true. We are about to (probably) miss a pretty major snowstorm by only 100 miles. That is minor in the grand scheme of things. Adjust the trough axis over the east west just a few degrees, or have a more shallow trough that places high pressure to our north instead of over and south of us, and suddenly we love the pattern. Those adjustments do not require a total breakdown and torch. That was my main point. As for the MJO, sometimes I wonder if one big peice of our snowfall is simply getting lucky to time up a favorable MJO (or other pattern driver) with our peak snowfall climo from Jan 15-Feb 15. It seems in years where we are fighting a negative factor timing up with that window we struggle, not shockingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Well, the MJO ran the gauntlet and crapped on us so lets fluke our way instead. lol Both the GFS and CMC show how we can win a gradient storm coming up. GFS is earlier and CMC is later. Before we get hung up on a relax we should see how we fare in the next 10 days or so. I still am skeptical that we see any prolonged huge pattern shift. Could, but this might just be a pretty cold winter wall to wall. Who knows. And I have not given up on anything in the coming 10 days. But as I said above I don't agree that we need a total pattern breakdown to get snow. That was the main thing I was trying to say but was unclear about obviously. I would rather hope for the less drastic shifts we would need to get the pattern better without totally losing the cold. Relaxing the cold sure, but going full torch like some seem to want, ehh that is unnecesary IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I still am skeptical that we see any prolonged huge pattern shift. Could, but this might just be a pretty cold winter wall to wall. Who knows. And I have not given up on anything in the coming 10 days. But as I said above I don't agree that we need a total pattern breakdown to get snow. That was the main thing I was trying to say but was unclear about obviously. I would rather hope for the less drastic shifts we would need to get the pattern better without totally losing the cold. Relaxing the cold sure, but going full torch like some seem to want, ehh that is unnecesary IMO. I totally agree. We can score with a -EPO and progressive pattern. Which we've been in for a while now but the amplitude SUCKS. 13-14/14-15 were different. Trough was more broad and the gradient remained over the united states and not central america. LOL. We need that w-e alignment to come back. And with it comes the risk of rain but at least it can precipitate right? Precip chances are going up exponentially starting next week. Zonal flow embedded in higher amplitude cold outbreaks. No block so rain versus frozen is more "likely". How much more likely is above my pay grade. And the MJO is overplayed imo. Yes, it's meaningful. But convection over the equatorial west pac does not drive a NA pattern 1:1. Influence? Yea, that seems to be the case. Drive the whole bus? Nope, no way from what I've seen through the years. Of course we want it in the favorable phases but plenty and I mean PLENTY of snow storms have happened with the MJO looking like crap on paper and we've totally blown MANY trips through 8-1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z gefs with a notable uptick in gradient storms d8-12. I don't like snowmaps as I've said many times but this is the best representation of the spread on the GEFS. Keep in mind, not all of the members that show snow are clean snow storms. Plenty of mixed events in there. However, it's hard to not like this panel. Hopefully we end up on the right side of something over the next couple weeks. No way to know right now. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 looks like a few of those jogged west. Atmospheric memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, H2O said: looks like a few of those jogged west. Atmospheric memory Don’t you mean a jog west, but with zero QPF? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I like the GFS look for next Monday/Tuesday much more than previous runs. As @Bob ChiII pointed out the other day, we want the front running northern stream low to get out of the way and let the southern stream stay south of us. This run doesn’t 100% get it done but close. Southern vort is stronger and farther south and gives us a rain to snow deal. Interested to see the ensembles and euro. GGEM is too strong and cuts the low well west. It's probably dumb of me to parse details this far out, but Monday morning would likely have significant icing potential, especially if the rain moves in early. This would be one of those events in which, even if the air temp is at 32/33, the surface temps will be far colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 eC is kind of amazing this like perfect diagonal pink stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, high risk said: It's probably dumb of me to parse details this far out, but Monday morning would likely have significant icing potential, especially if the rain moves in early. This would be one of those events in which, even if the air temp is at 32/33, the surface temps will be far colder. Yeah, could be a sneaky high impact event. Euro looks much different for this event. A bit more GFS like in some ways, but a stronger shortwave to the south torches the column. Still, I like the trend away from back to back cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z gefs with a notable uptick in gradient storms d8-12. I don't like snowmaps as I've said many times but this is the best representation of the spread on the GEFS. Keep in mind, not all of the members that show snow are clean snow storms. Plenty of mixed events in there. However, it's hard to not like this panel. Hopefully we end up on the right side of something over the next couple weeks. No way to know right now. That's for sure. euro looks like its about to give us a nice event day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Cold and dry is awful, BUT if we can do historic cold I'm in. If we can get rivers and the bay frozen over, sure, I'll go historic cold. Otherwise, I'd rather just sit in the 50's if we can't get snow. This period has been particularly difficult because there appeared at times to be ample opportunities for storms or even big storms only for them to disappear, and then this one Thursday is just going to be the icing on the cake in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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