Roger Smith Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Snowstorms just don't form over warm subtropical waters so this pretty much has to try to hug the coast, and any depictions of coastal blizzards in SC will probably morph into heavy snow more than 30 miles inland and a cold rain near the coast, freezing rain is difficult to establish when there are strong surface winds. My guess is that the storm is already starting to form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, looks that way on satellite imagery and from ship reports. Would say the proto-low is around 27N 86W now and will ripple across n/c FL tomorrow setting off that bomb over the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Seeing a pretty decent shift with the shortwave over western canada at 30 hours, seems to be diving south a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Doesn’t seem like the GFS is going to show anything different...if anything it’s a little flatter than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 not seeing much of a difference between 18z and 00z gfs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 60 hrs 250mb better pna amplification and deeper trof in east. More backing along se coast. More potent sw in stj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 getting really annoyed that we are not seeing drastic turnarounds that are suddenly showing a 1-2 foot snowstorm for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs still not getting it done. May be time to accept this isnt going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hasn't been mentioned but the rgem at hour 84 brings some precip into dc/balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Time to stick a fork in this one and boy is this one gonna hurt. Glad I got reaped early on. This winter stinks more than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 the GFS is just a disaster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS still basically a non-event outside the beaches of NC and SNE...I know I’m not looking for a blizzard here and am just having fun tracking...but should be a beast on satellite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 getting a positive trend around here has become nearly impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The EURO is our best and last shot. GFS nasogood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 the GFS is bad for everyone including New England-especially if they are expecting the "big one" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS looks totally lost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Micro analyze h5 all you want, but there has been no significant changes wrt to our sensible weather for this event over the last 7 runs of the GFS. For whatever thats worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Micro analyze h5 all you want, but there has been no significant changes wrt to our sensible weather for this event over the last 7 runs of the GFS. For whatever thats worth. yep...there is a tick here and there on the GFS run...ticks dont help us one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS will sneak up at 6z then maybe trend at 12z. by 00z tomorrow it will have a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS is bad for everyone including New England-especially if they are expecting the "big one" Don’t worry the CMC hits New England real good....and does exactly what the GFS does for us, which is nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM took another step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 FWIW, CMC trended West with the precip shield in comparison to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM gets an inch of snow into extreme SE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 this is sickening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: FWIW, CMC trended West with the precip shield in comparison to the 12z. Depicted ground truth looks very similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: this is sickening.. How do these maps even come out? It's like the same thing 100x. It always shows this signature 4 days before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS and CMC not on the same page with how far south the second NS wave digs. CMC digs it a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM gives NYC 20” and the GFS gives NYC flurries. Still a decent amount of uncertainty. Euro and now GGEM give the eastern shore 1-4”. GFS nothing. Doesn’t mean much atm for areas west of the bay but still worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I could at least live with CMC. Verbatim, NYC and Boston do well but barely hit double digits, it appears. Either way, we still have a shot. Hopefully, NAM is on to something. GFS could be right but I tend to doubt it. I don't think any models have it figured out yet. If they did, they wouldn't keep jumping around and the solutions wouldn't keep changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: this is sickening.. Bahhahahahahahahahaha that’s great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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