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New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice writup Showme . There's no doubt that (A) has slowed down and (B) has really sped up....every model at 0z recognized this and more changes no doubt will occur ...hopefully for the better. 

Agree.

I went to bed early but I did see the 0z GFS and the timing differences and interaction between the vorts was clear. Nice to see the Euro and UK runs this morning.

I was seriously about to book a place in Canaan or Snowshoe last night for mid next week, but I am going to hold off now lol. In the end I might end up heading to Rehoboth, like last January.

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Posted
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Blurb from Mount Holly AFD this morning on the potential. I like that last line lol. 

Wednesday night and Thursday...The 00z UK and EC op cycles were
west with the ocean low and pops have been boosted slightly to
account for what may become a general probably light snow event.
This needs to be monitored as forecasts are developed from
model solutions later this weekend and early next week. I think
these pops are conservative. Confidence: below avg.

Friday and Saturday...probably down right wind driven nasty
very cold again.
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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Gefs west of 0z for the day 5/6 storm. Great trends overnight. At least 6 members get snow west of the bay .

This is why I never declare a threat dead that's still 5 ..6....or 7 days out..big shifts can occur esp past 100 hours . Been in this hobby a long time and seen this happen sooooo many times. Still ooddles of time...

Just saw that.  Nice tick west from 0z.  couple more ticks and we get out the shovels.  962 at our latitude is NICE.  We all need this one.  

Nut

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree.

I went to bed early but I did see the 0z GFS and the timing differences and interaction between the vorts was clear. Nice to see the Euro and UK runs this morning.

I was seriously about to book a place in Canaan or Snowshoe last night for mid next week, but I am going to hold off now lol. In the end I might end up heading to Rehoboth, like last January.

Rehoboth? Didn't we establish last year that that was cheating. :)

Not sure that would even be an option in this case here as the models are currently depicted. Playing it through my mind I think the setup argues that if they get snow, we get snow. If we don't get snow, they don't get snow (at least anything of consequence). Think we are talking an all or nothing deal with this.

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Posted
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7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie is an ENE crusher. Nothing for us. Gee, watching this come back west just to see it hit NE and still miss us sure will be exciting! :rolleyes:

The 0z Euro has the western side of the precip shield 100+ miles further west. A couple inches of snow for coastal NC, VA, MD, DE. Pretty nice jump in one model cycle. Of course it could just be a blip. 12z runs are gonna be- wait for it- YUGE!

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Rehoboth? Didn't we establish last year that that was cheating. :)

Not sure that would even be an option in this case here as the models are currently depicted. Playing it through my mind I think the setup argues that if they get snow, we get snow. If we don't get snow, they don't get snow (at least anything of consequence). Think we are talking an all or nothing deal with this.

Nah! Ya chase the snow! As it turned out, I still ended up with 6" imby from that storm, but is was a blast at the beach.

And yes it could play out that way. Either way I will hold off until tomorrow before deciding whether I am going to head out to the mountains for a few days. If there is a shot at a storm locally, I can put that trip off for a few days.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nah! Ya chase the snow! As it turned out, I still ended up with 6" imby from that storm, but is was a blast at the beach.

And yes it could play out that way. Either way I will hold off until tomorrow before deciding whether I am going to head out to the mountains for a few days. If there is a shot at a storm locally, I can put that trip off for a few days.

Was actually talking about Rehoboth in regards to snow, no snow. Not even sure the mountains are in play at this point for anything more then a small time event (from the NS energy) barring a much quicker phasing then currently depicted. If they do come into play on later runs it just means we are golden through the DC/Balt corridor as I see no way at this point that the storm would have the ability to cut through, let alone to the west of our region (famous last words :lol: ).

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mitchnick

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Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 0z Euro has the western side of the precip shield 100+ miles further west. A couple inches of snow for coastal NC, VA, MD, DE. Pretty nice jump in one model cycle. Of course it could just be a blip. 12z runs are gonna be- wait for it- YUGE!

That's great to hear, but looking at H5 and comparing it to the runs that hit us and it's got a long way to go. Not impossible, but not easy/likely. And coming close but not far enough results in another Boxing Day debacle. We'll see. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Was actually talking about Rehoboth in regards to snow, no snow. Not even sure the mountains are in play at this point for anything more then a small time event (from the NS energy) barring a much quicker phasing then currently depicted. If they do come into play on later runs it just means we are golden through the DC/Balt corridor as I see no way at this point that the storm would have the ability to cut through, let alone to the west of our region.

I got what you were saying. The mountain trip is something I was intending to do to get to where there is snow, versus experiencing just cold and dry here for the next week. Canaan already has snow on the ground and will pick up more in the coming days from orographic lift. Now, if this coastal storm does make a come back, then I would prefer to hang here, and head west at a later time.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

That's great to hear, but looking at H5 and comparing it to the runs that hit us and it's got a long way to go. Not impossible, but not easy/likely. And coming close but not far enough results in another Boxing Day debacle. We'll see. 

Hang tough man if I lived where you do my ears would be perked up...out here...meh 

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showmethesnow

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Posted
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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's great to hear, but looking at H5 and comparing it to the runs that hit us and it's got a long way to go. Not impossible, but not easy/likely. And coming close but not far enough results in another Boxing Day debacle. We'll see. 

Those runs that were hitting us previously were of the long shot variety as they had a very convoluted setup and evolution. Basically we were hoping the stars would align for them to work. The look at 500 mb now is much simpler and doable and to be honest it isn't that far off from being a very good look for our region. 

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mitchnick

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Posted
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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Those runs that were hitting us previously were of the long shot variety as they had a very convoluted setup and evolution. Basically we were hoping the stars would align for them to work. The look at 500 mb now is much simpler and doable and to be honest it isn't that far off from being a very good look for our region. 

Recalling how the SE ridge pushed hard enough run after run for the 12/9 event to produce tells me it's not impossible.  But how I'd hate to see another "so close, yet so far away." Iow, I always preferred a girl to say at the start "get away from me you ugly oaf" vs. talk to me for an hour and just laugh in my face when I asked her for a date.

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frd

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Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 0z Euro has the western side of the precip shield 100+ miles further west. A couple inches of snow for coastal NC, VA, MD, DE. Pretty nice jump in one model cycle. Of course it could just be a blip. 12z runs are gonna be- wait for it- YUGE!

I was surprised to look at the Western Atlantic SST this AM and see the waters are very warm . This might impact where things develop and track later in the week. Plus, I see the trends of a positive AO are looking less and less likely.  

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Like some on these boards I had pretty much written off the possible storm for this coming Thursday. Just a very complicated setup with timing issues galore and we don't do complicated well here in the Mid-Atlantic. But after seeing the overnight run of the Euro op I may have to rethink my position because there may still be some Woof left in this old dog. Though this year has been rough with op runs outside of 2/3 days I still begin placing more weight on what the op runs show (especially the Euro) within 5 days, of which we are now at with this possible storm. And what I saw with the overnight run has peaked my interest to say the least. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now for those that don't realize it, the map directly above was just 6-12 hours too late for a big ticket item for our region. In two areas no less. First off, if we see a 6-12 hour quicker phase of A+B we see a farther north solution with that feature which then puts C into play for phasing, Which probably results with a triple phase running up the coast as A+B is not able to escape to the east. Or even if we see C come in 6-12 hours quicker we see that phase with A+B again bringing a triple phased system up the coast, though it would probably be a little farther to the east then the first scenario would be.

 

Good discussion, showmethesnow.  I'm just catching up in here now this morning, so I know this is a couple or so hours old.  But in looking back a couple of pages, those trends last night on the Euro that you point out are clear...and oh-so-close, compared to yesterday.  From what I've read/seen, the 06Z GFS hinted at the same.  At least something to keep the interest heading into the New Year.

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

When this storm first appeared we all knew that even a good track/progression favors the you know who's by a mile so having it drift back just brings up the same discussion. 

I didn't declare it dead becuase I've realized that things need to be inside of 120 hours to have any accuracy on ops this year. I did think the chances of a shift back to possible was very unlikely though. Weather doesnt like when we think we know something way in advance. Lol

Like I said last night, trough was just about 150 miles too far east and the base needs about 5-10 degrees more tilt. This piece happens 24 hours before any storm approaches and is easy to track. On the outside looking in until we aren't. Lol. 

Looking further down the line things continue to improve for precip. I/we just got fooled a week ago but this time has some differences. We're moving out of the cold dry pattern instead of into it. I'm really liking what I see in the epo/ao domain. Pump up that area again and we can write off any extended shutout pattern.  Both the eps/gefs show increased snow chances starting d8-9. If we rain first before a legit snow chance then so be it 

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

A bump west in the mean 24H precip on the 6z GEFS.  0.4” to Ocean City and 0.5” right on the coast.  

Looping the last 4 GEFS runs shows a pretty nice trend with the 24 hour precip bumping west.  Obviously there's no guarantee it continues but it's nice to be trending in the right direction with some time left.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Scanned through the eps for d9-10. Not many clean snow storms but a lot of mixed events with zr being the most common. The eps can have a herd mentality inside of 10 days so part of that is because the op went west. Will be interesting to track and see if seasonal trend wins or opening the door for a west track marks the beginning of a new regime. 

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