Chris78 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 19 minutes ago, stormy said: Hey! I'm trying to be positive here. The 18z GFS gives me .30" qpf, 220 - 240 along with a possible couple inches of snow. That is almost as much qp as the entire month of Dec... 10-15 day also looks juicy. I'll take it! I hear ya. I was just saying that the theme of the winter has been for possible events to trend east and south this winter. Less amped as we get closer to the event actually happening. Showing a further west track this far out might be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hear ya. I was just saying that the theme of the winter has been for possible events to trend east and south this winter. Less amped as we get closer to the event actually happening. Showing a further west track this far out might be a good thing. As I have said several times in recent days. I am not interested in fighting the arctic express with phantom dreams of how we might beat it. I am only interested in what 50 years of observation has revealed. More than 90% of the time in our region, a strong polar blast must relax to get moisture back into the equation. An exception would be January 29 of 1966. This time around, I find hope in what I'm seeing on the GFS/ECM/GEM today that indicates the tristate area may see interesting weather- wise between January 8 - 15. We can only hope that tomorrow looks as promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not to worry. The moisture signal will be gone in 24-48 hours, but you can be sure it's because cold air is pushing south. So the good news is, we're still cold enough to snow. Yea thinking the same thing. The good thing is by the time the d10 deal goes poof there will be a new d10 precip bomb showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 P010 has the euro day 11 storm. We mix with sleet but it's still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Haven’t looked at those analogs yet, but the basic pattern looks like one that could produce and would be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, Amped said: P010 has the euro day 11 storm. We mix with sleet but it's still pretty good. It's actually a pretty good run from d10+. Certainly higher chances of precip. Some nice looks mixed in with uncomplicated setups too. Some straight rainers in there but there's a nasty west track/CAD storm in the mix too. Gefs doesn't have the resolution to show CAD well but p003 would be a fun mixed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Anomalous pattern setting up on long range models. 3 ridges on this side of the hemisphere, +field south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Haven’t looked at those analogs yet, but the basic pattern looks like one that could produce and would be cold. 1/82 I'll take in a second, 1/84 if I have to, and I'd prefer to cancel winter than withstand living through 1/01 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 There are only two months colder than Jan 1982 was for this area; Jan 1977 and Jan 1940. The coldest day ever in the eastern panhandle, by mean temp and the lowest high, happened that month with a high of 2 and a low of -13. Double-digit snow that month also. 1984 had a great cold snap with back to back nights of -13 and -16 at MRB. Frequent small snowfalls. 2001 was meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Close enough to me to stay interested for now. If I lived at the beaches I'd keep 2 eyes on this for sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea thinking the same thing. The good thing is by the time the d10 deal goes poof there will be a new d10 precip bomb showing up Bob, you're a party pooper. A week ago tomorrow, a few on this board thought I was one. A frustrating pattern gets the best of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1/82 I'll take in a second, 1/84 if I have to, and I'd prefer to cancel winter than withstand living through 1/01 again.What happened in 1/01? I'm guessing cold and very dry, but any details?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, stormy said: Bob, you're a party pooper. A week ago tomorrow, a few on this board thought I was one. A frustrating pattern gets the best of us. Nah, I'm just having fun. Jan is the beginning of prime snow climo. I'd be very surprised if we don't get some events in Jan. Cold is cooperating and it won't stay dry forever. We actually don't want this type of cold pattern anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What happened in 1/01? I'm guessing cold and very dry, but any details? . 40N winter all the way. Phl on north had AN snowfall. Bwi was just under 10" and DCA was worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, I'm just having fun. Jan is the beginning of prime snow climo. I'd be very surprised if we don't get some events in Jan. Cold is cooperating and it won't stay dry forever. We actually don't want this type of cold pattern anyways. Yea, this type of cold is tough on the heating bill! Thank you for the knowledge that you contribute to this board. I am always impressed with your expertise regarding the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GFS has a faster phase than 12z. Not fast enough to prevent a fish storm, but it's better, I guess. It's came West of Bermuda this run so we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Some pretty interesting tweets going on from Al Marinaro and Anthony Masiello. Two pretty respectable sources...Throwing around the idea of a limited/brief or even nonexistent relax in Jan. I wont junk up the thread with tweets but if you follow them you should check some the conversations going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The upper Midwest and southern plains vorts look closer together this run at 90 hours. Maybe we can get some better interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I would be lying if I said I wasn't at least watching the trend of less and less spacing between shortwaves over the last 4 gfs runs. Clear as day here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The upper Midwest and southern plains vorts look closer together this run at 90 hours. Maybe we can get some better interaction. Yep...I have no idea if it makes a dif but I noted the same change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Yep...I have no idea if it makes a dif but I noted the same change.. Yeah the surface low still forms off Florida but maybe we can get the trough negative and suck it back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah the surface low still forms off Florida but maybe we can get the trough negative and suck it back in. Maybe a stretch but certainly could happen. Having the low form even 50 or 100 miles West could make a big difference as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Maybe a stretch but certainly could happen. Having the low form even 50 or 100 miles West could make a big difference as well. Still a swing and a miss but trended a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Still a swing and a miss but trended a little better. Yeah, certainly better. Manages to get some precip into extreme SE New England this time. Couple more improvements like we've seen and there could certainly be potential Edit: Canadian is better too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Still a swing and a miss but trended a little better. Eventually lost that GL low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The @Cobalt storm! With better spacing the only thing we can try to hope for is a dig further west with the n/s energy. It's a loooong shot but I bet everyone on this board will at least look out of curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Still a swing and a miss but trended a little better. Yeah better vort interaction but continued improvement needed. Western edge of precip shield ends up closer to the coast, but still quite a ways to go. Still time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Panel 198 is pretty close to 204 on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We need the trends to continue but getting closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 17 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: We need the trends to continue but getting closer... 999mb seems pretty weak. GFS is 20mb deeper at that latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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