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Rtd208

January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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IMO the cool down from Saturday onward has also gotten less impressive too, so it’s a bit of a double edged sword.   After Day 10-11 is the real question mark.  Is it a 2 week thaw, 5 days, 10 days or 2 months?  We really don’t know yet 

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4 hours ago, masomenos said:

If we had another week of this cold we'd probably start seeing major disruptions to shipping in the NY harbor. Pretty good icing just started reaching NY Bay this morning.

Today is the most extensive ice coverage on our local waterways since Feb 15.

 

5a527c4030af9_Screenshot2018-01-07at12_03_51PM.png.ee76ff4f62732b49616a5c41903bcd78.png

 

 

 

 

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What a warm freak show in here.

A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall  to date.

February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ?

LOL / 

No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year.

The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February.

Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys.

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60-65F day or two, the warm-ups often over perform. Snow cover will be gone by next weekend. 

Once again you are speaking in certainties a week away. 

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam shows about an hour of precip tomorrow afternoon with just a coating

Coating to an  half inch

Nothing big

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Coating to an  half inch

Nothing big

It’s going to be in an out fast too. Should be over and done by 6:00. Maybe a dusting? Honestly, it’s just a FROPA

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It’s going to be in an out fast too. Should be over and done by 6:00. Maybe a dusting? Honestly, it’s just a FROPA

I wouldn't be surprised if most saw nothing. A couple hundredths that the nam has can easily end up being 0. The Euro and rgem are a bit wetter though

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53 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

What a warm freak show in here.

A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall  to date.

February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ?

LOL / 

No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year.

The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February.

Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys.

of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it

Potential record breaking ?

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1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

What a warm freak show in here.

A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall  to date.

February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ?

LOL / 

No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year.

The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February.

Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys.

I agree with your thinking concerning February. Moreover, I believe we’re only at the half-way point in terms of seasonal snowfall for this winter.

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The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground.

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2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground.

That’s correct. Let’s see how things work out.

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16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground.

The models are also showing a direct tropical moisture plume into the area with potentially record PWATS for January above +1.60".  We could be looking at quite a bit of snowmelt from fog, temps above 50, and rain. Probably something to monitor if you have a flood prone basement.

 

ecmwf_pwat_slp_conus2_21.thumb.png.9b4a0a6b80020a78295aea0d98118f4f.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today is the most extensive ice coverage on our local waterways since Feb 15.

That ice covering a good chunk of the Raritan Bay is very impressive. Pretty sure that didn't happen during Feb 15 or Jan 04.

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34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it

Just already seeing signs by day 15 on the EPS around Alaska showing the attempt to reconnect the heights over the pole

If the negative retrogrades from the west coast back under that ridging and establishes a new -EPO then you are going to put the trough back in the east between day 15 to 20

Thats only a 10 to 15 day break , so the break is small.

60 plus during a few cutters is always an option , but so is a freak event in any warm up in the middle of January if you shorten a wavelength.

That's why this upcoming break doesn't impress me.

 

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17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM still showing pretty much nothing, but RGEM just came in with around 1 inch of snow for tomorrow.

The ground is frozen so it only takes . 1 or .2 to cause really slick conditions 

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15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM still showing pretty much nothing, but RGEM just came in with around 1 inch of snow for tomorrow.

The new GFS is in the NAM camp, basically nothing at all. It completely breaks the band apart and dries it out as it crosses over the Appalachians. Looks like flurries 

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5 minutes ago, masomenos said:

That ice covering a good chunk of the Raritan Bay is very impressive. Pretty sure that didn't happen during Feb 15 or Jan 04.

It was similar in Feb 15th but don't know if it was as extensive.

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new GFS is in the NAM camp, basically nothing at all. It completely breaks the band apart and dries it out as it crosses over the Appalachians. Looks like flurries 

Probably why there's a WWA.

IMG_0735.thumb.PNG.fedd419ce4bb4b9ac6173f2bdf6e150a.PNG

eps_snow_m_nyc_8.png

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1 minute ago, doncat said:

Nice way to start off a month...first 7 days here averaged 14.6 degrees, a -17 degree departure!

We'll need to average close to +5 the remainder of the month to make up the deficit

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45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

question for anyone who's surprised: where have you been the past few years?

70+ would be even more impressive given what's transpired these past 12 days, but it's definitely not surprising to see.

How quickly people forget how warm temps can get when a two week deep winter pattern sets in. 

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