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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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56 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It looks like there has been some research into this, so it looks like that idea has some support.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/full

 

Thank you, it would appear going into Feb. based on this research,  and the MJO phase progression,  that some extreme and even long lasting cold is on the table. Would be interesting to have that happen this time with an even greater snow cover and depth extent for areas further South.   

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

Thank you, it would appear going into Feb. based on this research,  and the MJO phase progression,  that some extreme and even long lasting cold is on the table. Would be interesting to have that happen this time with an even greater snow cover and depth extent for areas further South.   

Yeah, I'm pretty interested in how it all plays out. Being that Feb is the climo snowiest month, it's sure looking intriguing on paper.

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2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

It looks like there has been some research into this, so it looks like that idea has some support.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/full

 

 

Great paper elucidating these mechanisms. Thanks for sharing. I would posit that the MJO circulation has been one of the most significant variables influencing this winter's pattern.

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10 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America.  So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced.

That airmass over Eastern Siberia is brutal...the 00z ECM initialized with small areas of -44C 850s. Strong PV there.

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Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is -3.8degs. and at this rate we will be just  -0.30degs. by the 30th.  Last 2 days would need to be just +4degs. to end month at NORMAL.

My guess is we finish @ -0.5degs., since last 2 days may be BN.

We still have to Feb. 06 for real thing.

This would mean the first 10 days were -11.4, and the next 3 weeks +4.6.   Would you really call this a BN month?

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On 1/18/2018 at 10:58 AM, JetsPens87 said:

In NYC metro a wall to wall winter with cold and snow has for the most part never really been possible, not just “anymore”.

We don’t live in Barrow.

That’s true. But let’s not pretend a bookend cold winter with a 3 week thaw is “normal.” A thaw used to last a few days to a week.

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During the February 1-10, 1981-2010 base period, the monthly Arctic Oscillation (AO) average was negative in 11/12 (92%) cases when the February 1-10 average was -0.500 or below. The latest ensemble guidance suggests that such an average is possible during the first 10 days of February, even if the AO starts off with positive values. An AO- increases prospects for above normal monthly snowfall. Since 1950, 8/11 (73%) of NYC’s 12” or greater snowstorms and 22/30 (73%) of NYC’s 6” or greater snowstorms occurred with an AO-.

In the near-term, even as the January thaw continues, the current AO- will allow for some transient cold shots. One appears likely later this week. It will likely be that cold shot that helps assure that January 2018 will have a colder than normal monthly temperature anomaly.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/21: 28.6° (3.8° below normal)
1/25: 30.6°-31.3° (1/21 estimate: 30.3°-31.3°)
1/31: 31.5°-33.3° (1/21 estimate: 31.4°-33.4°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 52% (1/21 estimate: 52%)

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While we have this extended thaw going, might as well throw in some heavy thunderstorms for good measure around the region on Tuesday. Looks like another winter event that has better midlevel lapse rates than we get during the recent summers. Some locally gusty winds in the stronger cells.

SREF_prob_cptp_1__f033.gif.bea10ceac63a87986202ea9ef99f21d6.gif

5a65f2acd3bb4_2018012212_NAM_030_40.77-73.53_severe_ml.thumb.png.b06f726728eb6f8d2a1b03faf5a8925c.png

 

 

 

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yeah, really impressed by the lapse rates i saw on modeling yesterday. the ~150kt sub-tropical jet will also give that 400-500j of cape a nice boost.

rdps.300wh.us_ma.2018012206-loop.gif.5a625cd5270af6c836c5bb9709998b94.gif

will be another rough day for the ny airports, especially jfk. looks like another fog and wind shear event with 60-75kt modeled at 2000' ahead of the pre-frontal squall.

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8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s true. But let’s not pretend a bookend cold winter with a 3 week thaw is “normal.” A thaw used to last a few days to a week.

This isn't even true - not even in the little ice age.  There are newspaper articles from the late-colonial / early US era exclaiming about the unusual winters that allowed for uninterrupted weeks of sleighing.

NYC has a borderline subtropical climate.  The only reason it's even this cold is because of the semi-permanent eastern trough during the DJFM period.  Otherwise our climate would look much more like a Tokyo or Istanbul, and snow would be a once-or-twice-a-winter rarity.

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3 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

This isn't even true - not even in the little ice age.  There are newspaper articles from the late-colonial / early US era exclaiming about the unusual winters that allowed for uninterrupted weeks of sleighing.

NYC has a borderline subtropical climate.  The only reason it's even this cold is because of the semi-permanent eastern trough during the DJFM period.  Otherwise our climate would look much more like a Tokyo or Istanbul, and snow would be a once-or-twice-a-winter rarity.

Some decades it really was a once or twice a winter rarity......a lot of the 80's and early 90's were putrid....I remember sitting in the faculty room reading the Star ledger and an article entitled whatever happened to winter? That was 1991...

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3 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

NYC has a borderline subtropical climate. 

I've seen this absurd description before and a shoehorned Koppen class but the algorithm comes up short.  It isn't borderline.  And picking a UHI hotpoint where frost doesn't form on subway grates doesn't cut it.

3 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

The only reason it's even this cold is because of the semi-permanent eastern trough during the DJFM period.  Otherwise our climate would look much more like a Tokyo or Istanbul, and snow would be a once-or-twice-a-winter rarity.

The only reason Mt Washington is cold is because of it's elevation and location.  Otherwise it's climate would look more like Bordeaux, France and snow would be rare.

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Apparently at your house as you're above freezing...as am I at 39 :whistle:

Wise ass lol..  Down to 37°

45 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Not cold here...afternoon walk along a park on the Arthur Kill at 4pm, no overcoat, hat or gloves needed....just a windbreaker.

Never got above 38°..  Still have about 80% snow cover here. 

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Crazy stuff.  I am 10 miles from ISP and the high temperature here was 44.  Maybe the government shutdown includes the aspirator fan for the ISP sensor?

 

It's 42 now

 

The North Shore had a light NE breeze off the Sound today keeping those areas cooler. JFK made it to 52 while LGA only 45. I got into the low 50's here near the GSB with a period of sunshine .

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20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Weeklies have a good pattern from the 5th through March

Right back to the -EPO/+PNA pattern which we had before the thaw. Looking like our first cold departure February during a La Nina since the late 60's and early 70's.

 

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