Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is -4.7degs.  Should be just  -0.80degs. by the 29th. at this rate.  Last 3 days of month would still need to be +7.3degs to get to NORMAL for month.

Just think---we were -11.4degs.  after the first 10 days of the month, but may end less than one degree below normal---and like a Marathon runner ready for the ALS Ambulance after 26+ miles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nice disco. The hope of any SSW looks nil through mid-February, at least. By then, we will be down to 2 weeks of met winter left. The NAO just does not want to play ball at all, hasn’t for the last several winters in a row actually. Whether this is AMO related, geomag, a combo of both or something else at play, I don’t know 

The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB.

Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven.

2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you.

I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB.

Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven.

2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you.

I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break.

I like that look on the EPS. You see the dateline ridge get replaced with a trough, so that pushes the EPO neg. That happens by day 10. The trough looks more amplified by day 15, should amplify the western ridging if you roll that forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Monthly Dep thru 1/20

NYC: -4.8  (lowest 5 / warmest 61)
EWR: -4.8 (Lowest 4 / warmest 64) 
LGA: -5.7  (lowest 6 / warmest 60)
JFK: -6.3  (lowest 4  / warmest 54)
ISP: -4.1 (lowest 2 / wamrest 58)
TTN:  -4.4  (lowest -2 / warmest 65 )
PHL: -4.3  (lowest 4 / warmest 64)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The January thaw continues. Yesterday saw readings rising into the 50s across much of the area. New York City experienced its third 50° or warmer temperature this month.

With the currently negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), there can still be some transient cold shots. One appears likely later this week.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/20: 27.8° (4.7° below normal; 1/20 estimate: 27.6°-27.9°)
1/25: 30.3°-31.3° (1/20 estimate: 30.0°-31.2°)
1/31: 31.4°-33.4° (1/20 estimate: 31.5°-33.7°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 52% (1/20 estimate: 50%)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I like that look on the EPS. You see the dateline ridge get replaced with a trough, so that pushes the EPO neg. That happens by day 10. The trough looks more amplified by day 15, should amplify the western ridging if you roll that forward.

Everything was more amplified around day 15 including the MJO. Things can get really interesting with such a strong push into 7 and perhaps 8 shortly after.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif.80d387a30d9733049ccbccfde6cf9601.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB.

Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven.

2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you.

I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break.

I am not worried about a SSW. Despite Social Media predictions that seemingly have forecast six of the last one SSW events, they remain poorly understood and poorly modeled. Last winter was a great case in point where there were at least three such modeled events. None occurred. They occur about once every two winters.

I agree with your emphasis on the MJO and fully expect the return of the colder pattern that took hold beginning in late December. I continue to look forward to a very good February.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Everything was more amplified around day 15 including the MJO. Things can get really interesting with such a strong push into 7 and perhaps 8 shortly after.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif.80d387a30d9733049ccbccfde6cf9601.gif

 

It's nice to see that amplification as we get into more favorable phases. Thanks for posting that. Probably ,at the very least partially, explains the amplifying look @ 500mb out towards the end of last nights EPS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB.

Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven.

2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you.

I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break.

Just going by living around here for decades, it would be unusual ( but not unheard of ) for winter to just crap out and stay that way until spring. 2011 was an example, though we'd had an epic winter by that time already. Even 2007 and 2008 brought some snow or ice in Feb ( though 2007's sleetfests were a disappointment but were modeled to be IIRC ) so I can buy into the idea that it will get cold and possibly snowy again. Even in 1994 we had some warm temps IIRC in late Jan and thought we were in the clear ( we hadn't had snowy winter before then in ten years or so ) before Feb and March delivered. It's been my experience that mild winters tend to start out that way and stay that way. Just my unscientific two cents.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

It's nice to see that amplification as we get into more favorable phases. Thanks for posting that. Probably ,at the very least partially, explains the amplifying look @ 500mb out towards the end of last nights EPS.

Yeah, the stronger push into MJO 7 explains the EPS faster return to -EPO than what the most recent weekly run was showing. MJO 7 will enhance the winter background -EPO state . A move into 8 after would let the -EPO block expand eastward into +PNA.
 

New run 2/1 -EPO

ecmwf_eps_epo_2018012100.png.e6d0610e9eb42ab36c9505da33d430c2.png

Old run 2/6 -EPO

ecmwf_meps_epo_2018011800.png.2b3787203d710987da80d688d28069fa.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the stronger push into MJO 7 explains the EPS faster return to -EPO than what the most recent weekly run was showing. MJO 7 will enhance the winter background -EPO state . A move into 8 after would let the -EPO block expand eastward into +PNA. 

Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic to slow the flow down a bit. These 8-12 hour storms are intense and all, but it would be great to have one of those 24 to 36 hour blockbusters from pre 2014. Trough orientation and cold air is one thing, but some traffic to our NE would be alot more fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, doncat said:

UHI at work this am with 28° low here and 42° at NYC and LGA...Monthly departure here of -5.9° thru yesterday.

Yeah the last 2 nights have turned out milder than forecast, even when taking the UHI into account. I dunno if places still had snow cover and if thats playing into the divide too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic to slow the flow down a bit. These 8-12 hour storms are intense and all, but it would be great to have one of those 24 to 36 hour blockbusters from pre 2014. Trough orientation and cold air is one thing, but some traffic to our NE would be alot more fun.

It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2.

It doesn’t look like it would reach 8 til the 6th-8th of the month.  I don’t see it getting out of the cold phases at that point before the month is over 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic to slow the flow down a bit. These 8-12 hour storms are intense and all, but it would be great to have one of those 24 to 36 hour blockbusters from pre 2014. Trough orientation and cold air is one thing, but some traffic to our NE would be alot more fun.

Jan 4 would have been an all time great if it were moving slower. 14” in less then 12 hours is a pretty big deal regardless.

I would be willing bet the farm we see an above normal snow February on the island. We tend to do really well mid feb to mid March when water temps are already below normal. Throw in even modest cold and you get several snow events. I’m not sure we see another blockbuster but several advisory events (or more) apear likely 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2.

@bluewave Do you think that the more amped MJO we are seeing ( both previously and forecasted as well ) have any relationship to what JB refers to in a recent post, to which he states he feels that there is a connection between the low solar background and a East QBO to which continues to desend ? Thanks as always.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America.  So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America.  So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced.

you don't want the vortex overwhelming the pattern - need the southern stream getting involved also - we need  the precip to get back to at least normal - we have been stuck in a dry pattern since the second half of last summer - since Dec 1 NYC has had 3.76 inches liquid normal is 6.41

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, frd said:

@bluewave Do you think that thee more amped MJO we are seeing ( both previously and forecasted as well ) have any relationship to what JB refers to in a recent post, to which he states he feels that there is a connection between the low solar background and a East QBO to which continues to desend ? Thanks as always.  

It looks like there has been some research into this, so it looks like that idea has some support.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/full

Quote

Abstract

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America.  So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced.

Yeah, the WPO block opens a cross polar Siberian channel into Canada during the next few weeks. 

 

gblav_c850nv_h000.thumb.gif.e8572f995ea19c8c5623f692e4cd86a5.gif

gblav_c850nv_h168.thumb.gif.bfb99128763ee2d9904f6c0a2d5f19a2.gif

gblav_c850nv_h384.thumb.gif.b29d1c412686ecc820baaf6393ac3933.gif

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...