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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Can attest to the copious amount of rain. I'm in the yellow stripe of Morris County. Continual down pours. Just got soaked taking out the dogs. 

All of the local PWS's are approaching 2.00" here.  Remarkable deluge and warmth.  It actually felt hot and humid today.

Newest version:

WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=1&d

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16 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Well since we've hit 70 in the entire month of January maybe three times? in 150 years, Thank God there's no sun. Those are records I'd rather not break.

 

6 hours ago, Snowshack said:

63f at Albany / 24f buffalo this hour.  

If only the front waited a couple more hours.  Albany had a 63/50 split on the day until between 9 and 10pm when the temp dropped from 58 to 44.

They also spent 8 hours in the 60s today.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KALB.html

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Next 8 days back to 3degs.BN, at 29degs.  Used 50/22 for today.

GFS Weeklies look colder for last 5 days of Jan. than they did, but Feb. still looks warm.

Month to date now -6.7degs.  Should be -5.2degs. by the 21st.  Last 11 days of Jan. are still going to have to be >+9degs., to get to NOR. for the month.

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Temperature roller coaster ride continues. Rapidly falling temperatures today with colder temperatures again this week. Another warm up begins next weekend. This was one of the only times Newark had a -22 and a +22 temperature departure in the same week during January.

 

eps_t2m_anom_eastcoastus_36.thumb.png.425b3b12fcf9b80b3f767ba75756cca9.png

eps_t2m_anom_eastcoastus_228.thumb.png.73cd6a9c0f6046008585ee3ea68a994f.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Yesterday, the region rode the temperature roller coaster to the low 60s. Today, the roller coaster will be plunging into the 20s and even teens by day’s end. Already, the temperature has fallen sharply in New York City and Newark. From 6 am to 7 am, the temperature fell from 57° to 44° at Central Park and from 61° to 43° at Newark. 

Numerous cities set or tied record high temperatures yesterday. Those cities included: 

Albany: 63° (old record: 57°, 1885)

Bangor: 51° (tied record from 1980)

Binghamton: 60° (old record: 51°, 2017)

Bridgeport: 55° (tied record from 2017)

Burlington: 61° (old record: 55°, 1980)

Caribou: 51° (old record: 47°, 1980)

Danbury: 61° (tied record from 2017)

Hartford: 60° (old record: 57°, 1913)

Islip: 58° (tied record from 1995)

New Haven: 54° (old record: 52°, 2017)

Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 58°, 1980)

Providence: 62° (old record: 60°, 2017)

Rochester: 60° (old record: 58°, 2013)

Syracuse: 61° (old record: 57°, 1932)

Worcester: 59°, (old record: 57°, 2017) 

New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 

1/12: 26.0° (6.7° below normal)
1/15: 26.0°-26.8° (1/12 estimate: 25.9°-27.1°)
1/20: 26.3°-28.4° (1/12 estimate: 26.6°-29.0°)
1/25: 28.6°-31.4° (1/12 estimate: 28.1°-31.2°) 

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/12 estimate: 61%) 

The pattern continues to look favorable for a measurable snow event during the January 14-18 period, with the guidance suggesting a possible candidate system for the January 16-18 timeframe. However, at present, the guidance generally suggests that both the AO and PNA will be negative. Such an outcome favors smaller snowfall amounts in and around New York City. Larger amounts are possible in interior sections north and eastward across New England. 

Since 1950, the largest AO-/PNA- January snowfall in New York City was 9.1" (January 11-13, 2011). During January 1950-2017, 83% of AO-/PNA- storms brought measurable snowfall, 60% brought 1" or more snow, and 47% brought 2" or more, and 20% brought 4" or more. The statistically-implied percentages are 79%, 67%, 52%, and 23% respectively. Therefore, at least for New York City, the pattern favors a light accumulation. There remains some chance of a moderate accumulation of snow. Were the PNA to remain positive, prospects for a larger event along the coast would increase.

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11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, the region rode the temperature roller coaster to the low 60s. Today, the roller coaster will be plunging into the 20s and even teens by day’s end. Already, the temperature has fallen sharply in New York City and Newark. From 6 am to 7 am, the temperature fell from 57° to 44° at Central Park and from 61° to 43° at Newark. 

Numerous cities set or tied record high temperatures yesterday. Those cities included: 

Albany: 63° (old record: 57°, 1885)

Bangor: 51° (tied record from 1980)

Binghamton: 60° (old record: 51°, 2017)

Bridgeport: 55° (tied record from 2017)

Burlington: 61° (old record: 55°, 1980)

Caribou: 51° (old record: 47°, 1980)

Danbury: 61° (tied record from 2017)

Hartford: 60° (old record: 57°, 1913)

Islip: 58° (tied record from 1995)

New Haven: 54° (old record: 52°, 2017)

Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 58°, 1980)

Providence: 62° (old record: 60°, 2017)

Rochester: 60° (old record: 58°, 2013)

Syracuse: 61° (old record: 57°, 1932)

Worcester: 59°, (old record: 57°, 2017) 

New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 

1/12: 26.0° (6.7° below normal)
1/15: 26.0°-26.8° (1/12 estimate: 25.9°-27.1°)
1/20: 26.3°-28.4° (1/12 estimate: 26.6°-29.0°)
1/25: 28.6°-31.4° (1/12 estimate: 28.1°-31.2°) 

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/12 estimate: 61%) 

The pattern continues to look favorable for a measurable snow event during the January 14-18 period, with the guidance suggesting a possible candidate system for the January 16-18 timeframe. However, at present, the guidance generally suggests that both the AO and PNA will be negative. Such an outcome favors smaller snowfall amounts in and around New York City. Larger amounts are possible in interior sections north and eastward across New England. 

Since 1950, the largest AO-/PNA- January snowfall in New York City was 9.1" (January 11-13, 2011). During January 1950-2017, 83% of AO-/PNA- storms brought measurable snowfall, 60% brought 1" or more snow, and 47% brought 2" or more, and 20% brought 4" or more. The statistically-implied percentages are 79%, 67%, 52%, and 23% respectively. Therefore, at least for New York City, the pattern favors a light accumulation. There remains some chance of a moderate accumulation of snow. Were the PNA to remain positive, prospects for a larger event along the coast would increase.

The lighter to moderate snowfall in the  immediate NYC Metro is currently being modeled by the 0Z EURO - so that should be used as guidance right now since it matches the pattern as discussed above..............

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Yup snowing pretty hard out there right now. Went from tiny flakes just a few minutes ago to quite large now. Everything is still soaked from the torrential rains and snowmelt yesterday and overnight and it's just hitting 32* now and everything is starting to freeze up from the ground up because it's still frozen under the surface layer of mud. Ooooh gonna be a fun day of driving and college dorm shopping then packing the car to move the kids into the dorm tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, the region rode the temperature roller coaster to the low 60s. Today, the roller coaster will be plunging into the 20s and even teens by day’s end. Already, the temperature has fallen sharply in New York City and Newark. From 6 am to 7 am, the temperature fell from 57° to 44° at Central Park and from 61° to 43° at Newark. 

Numerous cities set or tied record high temperatures yesterday. Those cities included: 

Albany: 63° (old record: 57°, 1885)

Bangor: 51° (tied record from 1980)

Binghamton: 60° (old record: 51°, 2017)

Bridgeport: 55° (tied record from 2017)

Burlington: 61° (old record: 55°, 1980)

Caribou: 51° (old record: 47°, 1980)

Danbury: 61° (tied record from 2017)

Hartford: 60° (old record: 57°, 1913)

Islip: 58° (tied record from 1995)

New Haven: 54° (old record: 52°, 2017)

Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 58°, 1980)

Providence: 62° (old record: 60°, 2017)

Rochester: 60° (old record: 58°, 2013)

Syracuse: 61° (old record: 57°, 1932)

Worcester: 59°, (old record: 57°, 2017) 

New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 

1/12: 26.0° (6.7° below normal)
1/15: 26.0°-26.8° (1/12 estimate: 25.9°-27.1°)
1/20: 26.3°-28.4° (1/12 estimate: 26.6°-29.0°)
1/25: 28.6°-31.4° (1/12 estimate: 28.1°-31.2°) 

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/12 estimate: 61%) 

The pattern continues to look favorable for a measurable snow event during the January 14-18 period, with the guidance suggesting a possible candidate system for the January 16-18 timeframe. However, at present, the guidance generally suggests that both the AO and PNA will be negative. Such an outcome favors smaller snowfall amounts in and around New York City. Larger amounts are possible in interior sections north and eastward across New England. 

Since 1950, the largest AO-/PNA- January snowfall in New York City was 9.1" (January 11-13, 2011). During January 1950-2017, 83% of AO-/PNA- storms brought measurable snowfall, 60% brought 1" or more snow, and 47% brought 2" or more, and 20% brought 4" or more. The statistically-implied percentages are 79%, 67%, 52%, and 23% respectively. Therefore, at least for New York City, the pattern favors a light accumulation. There remains some chance of a moderate accumulation of snow. Were the PNA to remain positive, prospects for a larger event along the coast would increase.

Transition period for the PNA

Storms usually happen during those times

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