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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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The January thaw has now moved into its third day. Later today, New York City will likely see its first 50° temperature since December 22, 2017. However, the guidance is in strong agreement that the thaw will be interrupted by another period of colder than normal readings beginning this weekend.

1/10: 21.2° (11.6° below normal; 1/10 estimate: 21.0°-21.4°)
1/15: 26.1°-27.7° (1/10 estimate: 26.5°-28.5°)
1/20: 27.3°-29.0° (1/10 estimate: 27.1°-30.1°)
1/25: 27.4°-30.7°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 63% (1/10 estimate: 61%)

With a mean temperature of 21.2°, New York City experienced its coldest first 10 days of January since 1981. January 1-10, 1981 had an average temperature of 20.3°. 

In addition, through January 10, snowfall across much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England region is running above to much above normal. Select snowfall totals and anomalies to date are provided below: 

Allentown: 10.9" (2.1" above normal)

Atlantic City: 24.2" (19.1" above normal)

Baltimore: 5.2" (0.2" above normal)

Boston: 22.6" (8.1" above normal)

Bridgeport: 18.0" (9.6" above normal)

Hartford: 20.0" (6.7" above normal)

Islip: 22.0" (13.8" above normal)

New York City:

…JFK: 14.7" (7.8" above normal)

…LGA: 15.4" (7.5" above normal)

…NYC: 17.5" (10.2" above normal)

Newark: 16.1" (7.8" above normal)

Philadelphia: 12.7" (7.3" above normal)

Portland: 33.6" (12.3" above normal)

Providence: 21.5" (8.3" above normal)

Sterling: 4.7" (1.1" below normal)

Washington, DC: 2.7" (1.4" below normal)

Wilmington, DE: 10.4" (5.2" above normal)

Worcester: 30.6" (7.9" above normal)

Even as the region is in the early stages of a thaw, the generally negative Arctic Oscillation should allow for periodic intrusions of cold air. Should storms be timed to coincide with the cold air, parts of the region could see snowfall. The currently forecast pattern for the January 14-18 period is unusually favorable for snow events (implied nearly 1.4 days of measurable snowfall). One such window of opportunity shown on the guidance falls toward the latter part of that period (January 16-18). The 1/10 12z ECMWF, 1/10 12z/1/11 0z GGEM, and 1/10 18z 1/11 0z/1/11 6z GFS all suggest that parts of the region could experience an accumulating snowfall. The 18z GFS suggested the possibility of a late-blooming potent Miller B-type system that could bring a light snowfall to the New York City region and possibly a significant snowfall to parts of New England. The 1/11 0z and 6z GFS favored a light to moderate snowfall in parts of New Jersey, southeastern New York State, and southwestern Connecticut. The 1/11 0z ECMWF suggested a wet snow changing to rain scenario for parts of the area, including New York City. For now, it’s an outlier. Given the pattern, the idea of a moderate snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, including the greater NYC area and Long Island, remains a distinct possibility. 

Beyond this period, the Arctic Oscillation could go positive for a time beginning somewhere between January 20 and January 25. This development will likely be temporary. But it indicates the a possibility that the back end of the January thaw could produce the warmest anomalies of the thaw and a below to much below climatological probability of snowfall. Such warmth will likely be insufficient to prevent 2017-18 from having the first colder than normal January following a colder than normal December since winter 2010-11.

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9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Certainly has been a battle between temps.  The question is, can February, which is our snowiest month, produce in the snow department?  Like you've said, it always seems to find a way to snow.

First, all the models agree that the MJO will shift to a classic La Nina signature for later in January. So after the 20th it probably means more of a Western trough/Eastern ridge pattern. The timing of any colder period with more snow chances in February will depend on how long it takes the MJO to clear the milder phases.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.28d159d2a1e4b9e54d5e7bd8b6b0ee51.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif.47db2e259f77fbb9eb5e76c6dc967101.gif

CANM_phase_20m_small.gif.c5b19fcd5910c2a587c3d413b6809438.gif

 

 

 

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This morning, the AO was -0.862. Now, as I had been concerned, a significant cluster of ensemble members take the AO positive beginning in the January 20-25 period. Previously, aside from looking at the evolution of the mean 500 mb anomalies, there had been little support for such a scenario on the ensembles (only a small number of members showed such a solution). In my opinion, this outcome reinforces the idea that the second half of the January thaw will likely feature the most sustained period of warm anomalies. Further, I expect the shift to a positive AO to be temporary.

AO01112018.jpg

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54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, the AO was -0.862. Now, as I had been concerned, a significant cluster of ensemble members take the AO positive beginning in the January 20-25 period. Previously, aside from looking at the evolution of the mean 500 mb anomalies, there had been little support for such a scenario on the ensembles (only a small number of members showed such a solution). In my opinion, this outcome reinforces the idea that the second half of the January thaw will likely feature the most sustained period of warm anomalies. Further, I expect the shift to a positive AO to be temporary.

AO01112018.jpg

Don , the ensembles keep it NEG throughout the period , the EPS is N by the 25th but both OP`s are strongly NEG 

 

gefs_ao_2018011106.png

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12 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Don , the ensembles keep it NEG throughout the period , the EPS is N by the 25th but both OP`s are strongly NEG 

 

gefs_ao_2018011106.png

Thanks for this updated chart.

It seems that the GEFS have shifted from 0z. In any case, I suspect any rise to positive would be temporary (perhaps no more than 2-3 days in length). All of this is still far in the future, so there's considerable uncertainty. In the larger scheme of things, it still seems that a pattern evolution that would lead to a potentially snowy February remains on course.

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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for this updated chart.

It seems that the GEFS have shifted from 0z. In any case, I suspect any rise to positive would be temporary (perhaps no more than 2-3 days in length). All of this is still far in the future, so there's considerable uncertainty. In the larger scheme of things, it still seems that a pattern evolution that would lead to a potentially snowy February remains on course.

 

I agree with you on Feb - I think the forcing will push the trough back into the east for a few weeks once again . I do like how we are probably going to sneak a snowstorm in here on Tuesday ( I like that feature ) and we stole another week of BN in the heart of what was suppose to be the thaw period.

 

Now I do think there will be a 10 day AN period and that should come the 10 days prior to when the models will start too see the trough coming back into the East in early Feb.

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Around this time in January 2005 a lot of us were saying something to the effect of "this is a hell of a way to run a thaw".  We kept sneaking in little snowfalls in a warm pattern.  December to mid January that winter were in a two weeks warm, two weeks cold pattern.  The first 2 weeks of January were very warm, but we kept sneaking in minor snowfalls.  Late Jan had very cold weather and the blizzard, February relaxed a little, then mid February through mid March was cold and snowy.  It was a 78" winter at OKX (the second snowiest).

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41 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs unloads the cold in the long range

Brief mild days

Sam Lillo just pointed this out on twitter, but look at where the all arctic air ends up 15 days from now...Siberia, on the other side of the globe. The true arctic cold gets completely flushed out of Canada, Alaska, and Greenland and ends up on the other side of the hemisphere instead of ours going into the tail end of January. Once that happens and gets established, you need strong and sustained cross-polar flow to move it back to our side of the globe come February if you are looking for arctic cold to return. Keep in mind that once the heart of the arctic air sets up shop in Siberia, a positive feedback loop is established and it wants to stay there, hard to dislodge....   

 

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sam Lillo just pointed this out on twitter, but look at where the all arctic air ends up 15 days from now...Siberia, on the other side of the globe. The true arctic cold gets completely flushed out of Canada, Alaska, and Greenland and ends up on the other side of the hemisphere instead of ours going into the tail end of January. Once that happens and gets established, you need strong and sustained cross-polar flow to move it back to our side of the globe come February if you are looking for arctic cold to return. Keep in mind that once the heart of the arctic air sets up shop in Siberia, a positive feedback loop is established and it wants to stay there, hard to dislodge....   

 

The cold gets flushed out of Canada? 

SMH...

Lol those are anomalies , these are the actual 2 M temps , does that look flushed to you ? 

So if it's - 35 N of 50 or 55 and not - 50 it shows up as plus 8c in a departure BUT ITS STILL -35

So if transported south , that's frigid for the CONUS

Days 10 thru 15 are below and  Canada never ever ever loses all of its cold air.

This post may be your worst post in 5 years in here , im serious man.

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_41 (1).png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_45 (1).png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_49.png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_58.png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_65 (1).png

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50 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The cold gets flushed out of Canada? 

SMH...

Lol those are anomalies , these are the actual 2 M temps , does that look flushed to you ? 

So if it's - 35 N of 50 or 55 and not - 50 it shows up as plus 8c in a departure BUT ITS STILL -35

So if transported south , that's frigid for the CONUS

Days 10 thru 15 are below and  Canada never ever ever loses all of its cold air.

This post may be your worst post in 5 years in here , im serious man.

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_41 (1).png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_45 (1).png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_49.png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_58.png

gfs-ens_T2m_namer_65 (1).png

You can’t possibly be serious. I said the true arctic, arctic, arctic air does. Not cold. Stop your nonsense

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Sam Lillo just pointed this out on twitter, but look at where the all arctic air ends up 15 days from now...Siberia, on the other side of the globe. The true arctic cold gets completely flushed out of Canada, Alaska, and Greenland and ends up on the other side of the hemisphere instead of ours going into the tail end of January. Once that happens and gets established, you need strong and sustained cross-polar flow to move it back to our side of the globe come February if you are looking for arctic cold to return. Keep in mind that once the heart of the arctic air sets up shop in Siberia, a positive feedback loop is established and it wants to stay there, hard to dislodge....   

 

We don't need arctic air for snow

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You can’t possibly be serious. I said the true arctic, arctic, arctic air does. Not cold. Stop your nonsense

lol what's true Arctic air ? 

-25 at 50 N isn't true Arctic air ?

Canada never warms ,you may want to take a look at the current day 3 to 8 which is well BN and the 8 to 12 which is now N 

 

Its a result of HP coming out of a cold region , I honesty haven't seen one forecast that doesn't think Feb isn't BN

You took red on a map to mean warm ( it's an anomaly ) over one of the coldest parts of the world during the coldest part of the year 

 

There is zero meteorology to your ideas , the analysis is just poor and at this point much of the board refuses to take you seriously or informative.

I am not sure why you bother.

 

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24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

lol what's true Arctic air ? 

-25 at 50 N isn't true Arctic air ?

Canada never warms ,you may want to take a look at the current day 3 to 8 which is well BN and the 8 to 12 which is now N 

 

Its a result of HP coming out of a cold region , I honesty haven't seen one forecast that doesn't think Feb isn't BN

You took red on a map to mean warm ( it's an anomaly ) over one of the coldest parts of the world during the coldest part of the year 

 

There is zero meteorology to your ideas , the analysis is just poor and at this point much of the board refuses to take you serious or informative.

I am not sure why you bother.

 

He just wants the attention and we fall for it every time.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Sam Lillo just pointed this out on twitter, but look at where the all arctic air ends up 15 days from now...Siberia, on the other side of the globe. The true arctic cold gets completely flushed out of Canada, Alaska, and Greenland and ends up on the other side of the hemisphere instead of ours going into the tail end of January. Once that happens and gets established, you need strong and sustained cross-polar flow to move it back to our side of the globe come February if you are looking for arctic cold to return. Keep in mind that once the heart of the arctic air sets up shop in Siberia, a positive feedback loop is established and it wants to stay there, hard to dislodge....   

 

While sound in theory... Because like I said to Anthony, the source region changes from the arctic to Canada...

An above normal airmass(for them) coming from Canada can still produce below normal temperatures here.

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2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

lol what's true Arctic air ? 

-25 at 50 N isn't true Arctic air ?

Canada never warms ,you may want to take a look at the current day 3 to 8 which is well BN and the 8 to 12 which is now N 

 

Its a result of HP coming out of a cold region , I honesty haven't seen one forecast that doesn't think Feb isn't BN

You took red on a map to mean warm ( it's an anomaly ) over one of the coldest parts of the world during the coldest part of the year 

 

There is zero meteorology to your ideas , the analysis is just poor and at this point much of the board refuses to take you seriously or informative.

I am not sure why you bother.

 

You are completely right. He's a joke and everyone knows it. There's a reason he's 5 posted. Everything that comes from him is just trolling. Remember how many times he was wrong last winter about all his warm rain ideas. Even the one time he agreed and called for an intense snowstorm he ended up being wrong on whatever it was he was tauting about it. We all know his agenda though

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31 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

While sound in theory... Because like I said to Anthony, the source region changes from the arctic to Canada...

An above normal airmass(for them) coming from Canada can still produce below normal temperatures here.

I’m agreeing with you. Thanks for not attacking me, at least you saw my point. I never, ever said it wasn’t going to be cold. Just that the true unmodified arctic was going to the other side of the hemisphere. PB GFI twisted my post around to fit his personal agenda and make my post into something it wasn’t. Where did I ever say no cold in Canada?? Typical for him. 

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55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m agreeing with you. Thanks for not attacking me, at least you saw my point. I never, ever said it wasn’t going to be cold. Just that the true unmodified arctic was going to the other side of the hemisphere. PB GFI twisted my post around to fit his personal agenda and make my post into something it wasn’t. Where did I ever say no cold in Canada?? Typical for him. 

I’m not here to attack anyone. I like to play devils advocate sometimes with any posts because it stokes provocative discussion. I find value in all arguments, whatever they may be because in the end it will make for good discussion and gained knowledge.

It is a beautiful science in my opinion and one of the only ones without a definitive answer to any question, in essence it is a science of trying to predict the future. It can be both fruitful and frustrating, but always entertaining and exciting. 

Whether we be on the conservative or aggressive side of the forecast spectrum, it is those differences of opinions on how to interpret the “future” that allows us all to gain knowledge on how to view something in a different light that we may not have seen it in otherwise.

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Yesterday, the temperature rose to 53°. That was the warmest reading in New York City since December 19, 2017 when the mercury topped out at 55°. At 6 am, the temperature in Central Park had risen further to 58°. Today could see the City’s first 60° temperature since December 5, 2017.

In addition to the rain that lies ahead, there many areas will be cloaked in thick fog. As Carl Sandburg wrote:

The fog comes

On little cat feet.

It sits looking

Over harbor and city

On silent haunches

And then moves on.

For many, when the fog finally "moves on," little will be left of the once majestic snow cover that stood as a glistening tribute to winter’s most unrelenting cold wave in more than 50 years. There will be puddles. Little streams of water will run along streets and down hills. A few dirty piles of snow will stand out among the pools of water. But winter’s glory will have been stripped from much of the landscape.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/11: 23.6° (9.2° below normal)
1/15: 25.9°-27.1° (1/11 estimate: 26.1°-27.7°)
1/20: 26.6°-29.0° (1/11 estimate: 27.3°-29.0°)
1/25: 28.1.4°-31.2° (1/11 estimate: 27.4°-30.7°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/11 estimate: 63%) 

Despite today’s warmth, the January spring preview will come to an abrupt end tomorrow. Hugh Moore’s "Old Winter is Coming!" likely provides a good description of the day ahead. Moore wrote: 

Old Winter is blowing his gusts along,

And merrily shaking the tree!

From morning till night he will sing his song—

Now moaning, and short—now howling and long—

His voice is loud, for his lungs are strong…

After having started in the 50s just after midnight, the temperature will wind up in the 20s by late tomorrow evening. If the guidance is right, the mercury will continue to descend until it falls into the teens Sunday morning.

Then, as has often been the case since December, the opportunistic winter of 2017-18 could produce another snowfall early next week. The large-scale pattern during the January 14-18 period remains favorable for a measurable snowfall. Such a snowfall seems likely given the latest guidance for the January 16-17 timeframe.

Beyond that, the interrupted January thaw will likely resume. But the thaw still appears to be of a temporary nature, not the onset of spring’s early arrival. Further, as long as the Arctic Oscillation remains negative, periodic intrusions of cold air could disrupt the thaw. Finally, a more sustained period of cold could develop starting in early February.

 

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