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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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4 hours ago, masomenos said:

If we had another week of this cold we'd probably start seeing major disruptions to shipping in the NY harbor. Pretty good icing just started reaching NY Bay this morning.

Today is the most extensive ice coverage on our local waterways since Feb 15.

 

5a527c4030af9_Screenshot2018-01-07at12_03_51PM.png.ee76ff4f62732b49616a5c41903bcd78.png

 

 

 

 

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What a warm freak show in here.

A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall  to date.

February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ?

LOL / 

No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year.

The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February.

Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys.

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53 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

What a warm freak show in here.

A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall  to date.

February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ?

LOL / 

No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year.

The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February.

Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys.

of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it

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1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

What a warm freak show in here.

A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall  to date.

February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ?

LOL / 

No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year.

The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February.

Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys.

I agree with your thinking concerning February. Moreover, I believe we’re only at the half-way point in terms of seasonal snowfall for this winter.

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2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground.

That’s correct. Let’s see how things work out.

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16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground.

The models are also showing a direct tropical moisture plume into the area with potentially record PWATS for January above +1.60".  We could be looking at quite a bit of snowmelt from fog, temps above 50, and rain. Probably something to monitor if you have a flood prone basement.

 

ecmwf_pwat_slp_conus2_21.thumb.png.9b4a0a6b80020a78295aea0d98118f4f.png

 

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34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it

Just already seeing signs by day 15 on the EPS around Alaska showing the attempt to reconnect the heights over the pole

If the negative retrogrades from the west coast back under that ridging and establishes a new -EPO then you are going to put the trough back in the east between day 15 to 20

Thats only a 10 to 15 day break , so the break is small.

60 plus during a few cutters is always an option , but so is a freak event in any warm up in the middle of January if you shorten a wavelength.

That's why this upcoming break doesn't impress me.

 

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15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM still showing pretty much nothing, but RGEM just came in with around 1 inch of snow for tomorrow.

The new GFS is in the NAM camp, basically nothing at all. It completely breaks the band apart and dries it out as it crosses over the Appalachians. Looks like flurries 

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45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

question for anyone who's surprised: where have you been the past few years?

70+ would be even more impressive given what's transpired these past 12 days, but it's definitely not surprising to see.

How quickly people forget how warm temps can get when a two week deep winter pattern sets in. 

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