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bluewave

January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

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15 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Spiking the football before it happens. Anyway, here is the SREF greatest probability of seeing 4 or more inches of snow, nowhere near the metro area as you can see and even there, it’s a low probability. :-) This is a very minor system 

 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Spiking the football before it happens. Anyway, here is the SREF greatest probability of seeing 4 or more inches of snow, nowhere near the metro area as you can see and even there, it’s a low probability. :-) This is a very minor system 

 

This is now 4 to 8 just away from NYC already and 1 to 3 on the coast. If 1 6 hour layer gets cleared up it`s 3 to 5 into NYC and into W Nassau County.

I have been on this since Jan 9 - it`s posted in every thread.

You posted it`s a fast flow clipper with nothing. Tell that to NNJ /Westchester/  HV / WCT/ EPA and just N of NYC 48 hours out. 

.5 - .7 now , the call was for a moderate snow event from 6 days ago. 

You whiffed again. 

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2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

This is now 4 to 8 just away from NYC already and 1 to 3 on the coast. If 1 6 hour layer gets cleared up it`s 3 to 5 into NYC and into W Nassau County.

I have been on this since Jan 9 - it`s posted in every thread.

You posted it`s a fast flow clipper with nothing. Tell that to NNJ /Westchester/  HV / WCT/ EPA and just N of NYC 48 hours out. 

.5 - .7 now , the call was for a moderate snow event from 6 days ago. 

You whiffed again. 

I whiffed before it even happened??? ROTFLMFAO!!! Did you look at the SREFs?? You know, the always JUICED SREFs?? They don’t even have the area reaching over 4 inches!!

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Just now, snowman19 said:

I whiffed before it even happened??? ROTFLMFAO!!! Did you look at the SREFs?? You know, the always JUICED SREFs?? They don’t even have the area reaching over 4 inches!!

Have you seen the SREFS 

 

5a5cffe91cf93.png

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10 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Have you seen the SREFS 

 

5a5cffe91cf93.png

I love it. I whiffed over 24 hours before the storm is going to hit. That’s great. Ratios will be 10:1, best case. That’s not impressive for the SREF and what if the models back off tonight?? Like that’s never happened just before a storm right??

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Hey snowman, beford you continue this back and forth, can you clear up the claims you made about people predicting snow last weekend? Its only appropriate to back up your claims here, thanks. 

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Next storm to watch is at the end of January

PNA and AO are going to be favorable

Euro shows a Miller b coastal which favored  inland areas on the 12z run.

Gfs and cmc show a cutter

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On 1/16/2018 at 2:23 PM, Snow88 said:

Next storm to watch is at the end of January

PNA and AO are going to be favorable

Euro shows a Miller b coastal which favored  inland areas on the 12z run.

Gfs and cmc show a cutter

Models are shifting east with the low

Have to watch this

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On 1/15/2018 at 2:25 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

This is now 4 to 8 just away from NYC already and 1 to 3 on the coast. If 1 6 hour layer gets cleared up it`s 3 to 5 into NYC and into W Nassau County.

I have been on this since Jan 9 - it`s posted in every thread.

You posted it`s a fast flow clipper with nothing. Tell that to NNJ /Westchester/  HV / WCT/ EPA and just N of NYC 48 hours out. 

.5 - .7 now , the call was for a moderate snow event from 6 days ago. 

You whiffed again. 

Ouch PB, ☃️ got you on this one

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Ouch PB, ☃️ got you on this one

There was 4 in Washington NJ 6 in Vernon NJ and 8 in the HV

So that 4 to 8 inch call was really good.

Westchester and WCT nothing they got precip starved so that busted.

I only had 1 to 3 in NYC into CNJ I got my 2 in Colts Neck and was not modeled anywhere.

The city only saw .19 so the precip missed them and the RGEM and Euros s .5 were wrong 

When you see something 9 days away and a lot of it verifies you take it

That miss in those 2 areas were because the precip never came east

Now get ready for winter to return between Feb 3rd - 5th.

 

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3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

There was 4 in Washington NJ 6 in Vernon NJ and 8 in the HV

So that 4 to 8 inch call was really good.

Westchester and WCT nothing they got precip starved so that busted.

I only had 1 to 3 in NYC into CNJ I got my 2 in Colts Neck and was not modeled anywhere.

The city only saw .19 so the precip missed them and the RGEM and Euros s .5 were wrong 

When you see something 9 days away and a lot of it verifies you take it

That miss in those 2 areas were because the precip never came east

Now get ready for winter to return between Feb 3rd - 5th.

 

Other than a few select areas, the widespread general concensus is that the storm was a bust for the area. Whether it be lack of QPF or warm temps, the fact remains it was a bust. NYC and LI saw nothing. Westchester and CT saw very little. Eastern Jersey maxed out at 1-2". Sure, some areas far to the NW saw a snowfall, but for a large portion of the area it was a bust. 

This is not even up for debate. The fact that you called for a snow event in the time frame was good, and hats off to you. But looking at the forecasts from before the storm and the result thereafter, the only reasonable conclusion is that for most of the area, it was a bust. Its not your fault and no reason to take it personally, it happens. 

The RGEM in particular was horrendous, as it repeatedly had CT and Westchester getting 6"+ of snow, and they got 1-2" at most. The models were awful, there isnt much any forecaster can do about that. 

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CMC has the 29-30storm

It develops another wave after the initial rainstorm

German is similiar but warmer

Looks good for the interior on both models

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Other than a few select areas, the widespread general concensus is that the storm was a bust for the area. Whether it be lack of QPF or warm temps, the fact remains it was a bust. NYC and LI saw nothing. Westchester and CT saw very little. Eastern Jersey maxed out at 1-2". Sure, some areas far to the NW saw a snowfall, but for a large portion of the area it was a bust. 

This is not even up for debate. The fact that you called for a snow event in the time frame was good, and hats off to you. But looking at the forecasts from before the storm and the result thereafter, the only reasonable conclusion is that for most of the area, it was a bust. Its not your fault and no reason to take it personally, it happens. 

The RGEM in particular was horrendous, as it repeatedly had CT and Westchester getting 6"+ of snow, and they got 1-2" at most. The models were awful, there isnt much any forecaster can do about that. 

Agree ,this busted completely along 95 and even just N of the city .

i was texting with Nor'easter the night of the event and said , the precip is not coming east , but that's too late.

Only NNJ to the LHV did well .

AG never liked it for NYC I thought he was going to do as well as Colts Neck , they didn't it all felll apart

 

Happy for the HV guys though , the last 2 favored us so we had one to give. 

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13 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Agree ,this busted completely along 95 and even just N of the city .

i was texting with Nor'easter the night of the event and said , the precip is not coming east , but that's too late.

Only NNJ to the LHV did well .

AG never liked it for NYC I thought he was going to do as well as Colts Neck , they didn't it all felll apart

 

Happy for the HV guys though , the last 2 favored us so we had one to give. 

How was your trip?

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2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Still here. 75 , so it's been good man. 

Get ready for winters return 

About the same temp up here today 

:whistle:

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