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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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0z Euro not as amped as 12z. EPS actually more impressive and shows a SECS for most posters in this subforum. H5 looks great on EPS with surface just not as organized. GEFS H5 looks better also but still unimpressive at surface, much like GFS.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One of the analogs showing up down in the SE is the Jan 2014 snow...the one which shut Atlanta down.  I believe that system went on to miss us up this way passing SE of the benchmark

Yep. I could see coastal SE having SECS event and N MA missing out while NE gets hit as SLP heads just east of BM. Potency of H5 energy and wavelength of trough still need to be ironed out. Euro with shorter WL forces amplification and less progressiveness.

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8 hours ago, Enigma said:

Yep. I could see coastal SE having SECS event and N MA missing out while NE gets hit as SLP heads just east of BM. Potency of H5 energy and wavelength of trough still need to be ironed out. Euro with shorter WL forces amplification and less progressiveness.

What's with so many storms missing or giving the brunt SE and E of many of us? North Central NJ for example seems to struggle to be in the bullseye most of the with a few notable exceptions. I don't mind the 3-6 inch events, but we are way overdue for anything approaching a foot. 

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13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What's with so many storms missing or giving the brunt SE and E of many of us? North Central NJ for example seems to struggle to be in the bullseye most of the with a few notable exceptions. I don't mind the 3-6 inch events, but we are way overdue for anything approaching a foot. 

Overdue for a foot in CNJ? You should review your climo.

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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And the Euro caves to the other models again. Shocker. Way too overamped as usual yesterday. The beat goes on. Smh. Wtf happened to that model??

GFS is showing 1 to 2 inches with the clipper, and long range NAM looks like that as well. Hopefully we can pick up some light accumulations on tuesday.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The upgrade ruined this model

It’s been relatively lousy now for 5-6 years in regards to blowing up systems.  It’s been exacerbated by the fact we’ve had a few La Niñas in there where the GFS and Euro have generally always done better and worse respectively.  Even back in the early to middle 2000s the GFS tended to perform better in La Niñas

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45 minutes ago, North and West said:


We had a foot at MMU in mid-March. Are you nearby?


.

We had about 5-6, mostly sleet. Often we are too far north, too far south, or too far west for the best snows. But sometimes we get a big snow, we cashed in on Boxing Day by a few miles; we had the Jan 2011 event and the Jan 2016 events. Most other storms leave us shy of the bigger totals, not sure why. We were only a few miles from the best bands during the last storm, leaving the area with a general 6-8. 

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Things look pretty bleak for winter lovers for the next 2-3 weeks. 

Looks very torchy next weekend and beyond. I have a feeling we'll hit 70F this month, it would've been easily accomplished yesterday if we had some sun. 

I’ve seen worse patterns.  Nothing really locks in.  It seems to be fluid where it’ll be warm then cold then warm then cold 

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51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Things look pretty bleak for winter lovers for the next 2-3 weeks. 

Looks very torchy next weekend and beyond. I have a feeling we'll hit 70F this month, it would've been easily accomplished yesterday if we had some sun. 

You have been saying this since December .

It still can snow in terrible patterns

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40 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:
3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:
Not in my area for the last winter at least. Of course we did have the Jan 2016 storm....but that's over two feet. Don't expect to see that very often....

CNJ had ...offically...16.5" on 1/4 storm!!

CNJ is a big area.....you can go see where RU in Metuchen measured 6.5 and RT in Carteret measured 7....officially Elizabeth had 8.5 but most would consider it to be NNJ but I'm south of there near SI. I remember being in Jackson 29 years ago teaching on my first job and the director said it was a typical CNJ town ( which wasn't true back then ) but what floored me was they considered Jackson CNJ...we always considered it southern....its an hour south of me

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CNJ is a big area.....you can go see where RU in Metuchen measured 6.5 and RT in Carteret measured 7....officially Elizabeth had 8.5 but most would consider it to be NNJ but I'm south of there near SI. I remember being in Jackson 29 years ago teaching on my first job and the director said it was a typical CNJ town ( which wasn't true back then ) but what floored me was they considered Jackson CNJ...we always considered it southern....its an hour south of me

Those aforementioned towns are clearly part of the North jersey crowd! Monmouth, Mercer, Middlesex counties define Central Jersey. I'm in Freehold - center of Monmouth. See attached!d364766e476c307368d1f7efbc1a6c32.jpg&key=4394ad764a5d763da6cf6928ce443a7de9b47aa6a27256be68dcaf225fd15f57

 

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