January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

[Cobalt]

9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Looks like he's not the one eating his words now does it ? 

 

Need some salt ? 

Nope. He was correct in this situation. DT on the other hand, was miles off. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Nope. He was correct in this situation. DT on the other hand, was miles off. 

DT hugged the Euro which busted as bad as I have seen it 

The mesoscale models schooled the globals just like they did last Jan 

[Cobalt]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

DT hugged the Euro which busted as bad as I have seen it 

The mesoscale models schooled the globals just like they did last Jan 

Also the Canadian model was pretty good too. Much better than Euro/GFS, that's for sure. 

[doncat]

8 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Hmmmmm , ya think 

Its the usual cast of characters with their Debbie downer posts...happens all the time, we know who they are. Nice work with this storm PB.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Also the Canadian model was pretty good too. Much better than Euro/GFS, that's for sure. 

The Canadian was great , but the NAM resolved the latent heat release and painted the coastal front correctly 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

10 minutes ago, doncat said:

Its the usual cast of characters with their Debbie downer posts...happens all the time, we know who they are. Nice work with this storm PB.

 

Thank you , it's the same people spiking the ball days out over operational output without any understanding what was going on at 500 and why this was going to end up at the BM which made for unwanted participation.

When we look at models we sometimes look for why the are wrong when there are bigger anomalies present.

When you see a huge ridge and its axis that far west and something deepening that 960 where should the height falls be , for us it was a matter of time that it would correct there

The rest comes dowh to its natural expansion of its precipitation field 

 

The kicker idea was hard to swallow as it was some very poorly sampled vort in a sparse data region and didn't dissuade us from looking at the bigger picture 

[snow1]

PB, great job with the storm. You nailed it! Is there any new potential storms in our future? 

[L.I.Pete]

31 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Hmmmmm , ya think 

Some things never change. Great call.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

there were a few guys on twitter that nailed it DAYS out too, earthlight being on of em

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Rgem is some icing potential, small period of mod snow north and west, sharp cut/rain south

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I got 15 , should I give it back ? 

The storm ended up further west than expected several days ago, however; we're talking about maybe a 50 mile further westward expansion with higher amounts, less so further NW. 

I got less than 7". 

Congrats on the call but there's no need to gloat about it, the naysayers silence should be enough. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

30 minutes ago, snow1 said:

PB, great job with the storm. You nailed it! Is there any new potential storms in our future? 

Yes Monday there's a weak low going off to our south so WAA is possible and by day 9 there will be a Low in the SE and the EPS drives a ridge into W Canada and believes there's an east based block 

its a great look , if the heights in W Canada don't break down it should not cut 

I would focus on the Mon / Tues possibility as there will be enough cold air around

 

Day 9 is an great look / it's 9 days out and to far 

[MJO812]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Yes Monday there's a weak low going off to our south so WAA is possible and by day 9 there will be a Low in the SE and the EPS drives a ridge into W Canada and believes there's an east based block 

its a great look , if the heights in W Canada don't break down it should not cut 

I would focus on the Mon / Tues possibility as there will be enough cold air around

 

Day 9 is an great look / it's 9 days out and to far 

Every model shows the potential

[NortheastPAWx]

I'll take just 0.1" Monday, get over that 20" mark.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The storm ended up further west than expected several days ago, however; we're talking about maybe a 50 mile further westward expansion with higher amounts, less so further NW. 

I got less than 7". 

Congrats on the call but there's no need to gloat about it, the naysayers silence should be enough. 

No my man , that's where the storm was always suppose to be 

You keep thinking numerical models predict snowstorms , they dont 

You swing with every model run and never look outside of a thinly vieled run

if it shows rain ,you yell rain . If it shows a whiff , you yell whiff 

As far as today's storm it didn't just magically appear " 50 mile closer "  it was forecast 350 miles east of the BM 5 days ago and we knew it was wrong 

You keep thinking the model is going to give you the answer , you should look at a model as to why it should be right or wrong and not always take it verbatim 

There was a negative diving off the WC all week further and further west which was pulling the ridge back , when the model didn't reposition the height falls into the Arctic boundary on the east coast  we knew it was wrong 

we didn't care what the models said 

A sub 960 Low with that ridge axis was always going to the BM 

And the mesos painted the drive N perfectly 

I posted that 4 days ago and at that time only the Caanadian got it / but that's not what I did it 

You guys keep making the same mistakes and same declarative statements in here 

 

You also posted the next 2 events were rain events , we don't know that yet 

Monday looks frozen and the cold dome of air in place should led you to at the very least question that too 

 

Its not gloating bud , it's a reminder as to not swallow every model output or it will make you sick 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

42 minutes ago, L.I.Pete said:

Some things never change. Great call.

Thank you sir 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

33 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

there were a few guys on twitter that nailed it DAYS out too, earthlight being on of em

Away from here there were about 10 of us that had this , John was a very big part of it 

There are places that put these events together like puzzles 

And bending guidance towards a non event bias isn't tolerated

 

Either is blatant weeniesm 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Away from here there were about 10 of us that had this , John was a very big part of it 

There are places that put these events together like puzzles 

And bending guidance towards a non event bias isn't tolerated

 

Either is blatant weeniesm 

Bernie always say, you should look at a model or model run and instead of figuring out if its right, figure out why it isnt, he was all over the expanded precip and better track whole time

[weatherfreeeeak]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Also the Canadian model was pretty good too. Much better than Euro/GFS, that's for sure. 

The Hi-res RGEM, the HRDPS, I also think did very well with this storm. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Thanks again to all you guys that are a wealth of information and a big help to guys like me who are trying to understand the science and for answering all the questions its appreciated ! This was a fun storm to learn from !

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The Canadian was great , but the NAM resolved the latent heat release and painted the coastal front correctly 

I thought the Canadian was almost bad as the other globals. Sure it had us getting snow but the QPF output was laughable. Less than 24 hours before it started to snow around here it had Long Island and Boston getting 3 inches. I thought all globals were bad and were embarrassed by King NAM. I would like to say RGEM did well but again QPF was liight up until event. BTW you did a great job with the forecast. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

Canadian is the new best model in my opinion

[Wetbulbs88]

41 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Bernie always say, you should look at a model or model run and instead of figuring out if its right, figure out why it isnt, he was all over the expanded precip and better track whole time

Love Bernie, and love that he just earnestly comes out with what he failed at with each storm. I wish he gave a little more analysis and took it a little less personally (then again, what do I know about being a celeb met who's decision affect many), but I deeply respect that. He called 3-6 for NYC and could've easily taken the bait from the complete bs JFK/LGA reports of 5-6 inches, but he owned up to the 9-10+ NYC accums because he made a great forecast overall and that's what matters. He was way ahead of this storm compared to model-huggers. FWIW I was a deep believer in this one too. Once you remove your emotions from the outcome you see it a lot better. 

[Mophstymeo]

41 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Bernie always say, you should look at a model or model run and instead of figuring out if its right, figure out why it isnt, he was all over the expanded precip and better track whole time

I thought you were pretty good yourself. I watched from the shadows as the battle royale raged -- it was informational and entertaining -- and you only really wavered last night with the questions of the dryness in the air up by you. Plus, I knew something was afoot when I'd see that you had posted. All in all, good job to a lot posters here. And to RJay for his naming of the storm thread. (I'm convinced my keeping the shovel in my garage until I needed to use it helped with the storm, too.)

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I thought the Canadian was almost bad as the other globals. Sure it had us getting snow but the QPF output was laughable. Less than 24 hours before it started to snow around here it had Long Island and Boston getting 3 inches. I thought all globals were bad and were embarrassed by King NAM. I would like to say RGEM did well but again QPF was liight up until event. BTW you did a great job with the forecast. 

It had it early then lost it ,  the high res NAM  did well , like it did last January 

[Morris]

1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

It had it early then lost it ,  the high res NAM  did well , like it did last January 

The RGEM itself wasn't so good this time.

This is why we have so many models. No model is perfect and every model scores a coup here and there against all others.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

No my man , that's where the storm was always suppose to be 

You keep thinking numerical models predict snowstorms , they dont 

You swing with every model run and never look outside of a thinly vieled run

if it shows rain ,you yell rain . If it shows a whiff , you yell whiff 

As far as today's storm it didn't just magically appear " 50 mile closer "  it was forecast 350 miles east of the BM 5 days ago and we knew it was wrong 

You keep thinking the model is going to give you the answer , you should look at a model as to why it should be right or wrong and not always take it verbatim 

There was a negative diving off the WC all week further and further west which was pulling the ridge back , when the model didn't reposition the height falls into the Arctic boundary on the east coast  we knew it was wrong 

we didn't care what the models said 

A sub 960 Low with that ridge axis was always going to the BM 

And the mesos painted the drive N perfectly 

I posted that 4 days ago and at that time only the Caanadian got it / but that's not what I did it 

You guys keep making the same mistakes and same declarative statements in here 

 

You also posted the next 2 events were rain events , we don't know that yet 

Monday looks frozen and the cold dome of air in place should led you to at the very least question that too 

 

Its not gloating bud , it's a reminder as to not swallow every model output or it will make you sick 

There was also the no precip for the rest of the forecast period crap.

The west trend has won every time so far this season. I’ll keep running with it for a reason. Both good and bad. It may mean a coastal hugger down the road similar to last March.

[SnoSki14]

This storm was also an unusual situation, like Forky said these systems typically stay far away from us. 9 out of 10 times this would've been a miss. DT felt that way too.

I don't hug the models, once it was obvious the storm would have an impact I even favored a more western track despite models shifting east. But whatever fits your narrative and makes you sound better.

The pettiness doesn't bother me, I'm just here to learn because I love this stuff.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I thought the Canadian was almost bad as the other globals. Sure it had us getting snow but the QPF output was laughable. Less than 24 hours before it started to snow around here it had Long Island and Boston getting 3 inches. I thought all globals were bad and were embarrassed by King NAM. I would like to say RGEM did well but again QPF was liight up until event. BTW you did a great job with the forecast. 

U have to work top down....no surface map....no qpf...

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This storm was also an unusual situation, like Forky said these systems typically stay far away from us. 9 out of 10 times this would've been a miss. DT felt that way too.

I don't hug the models, once it was obvious the storm would have an impact I even favored a more western track despite models shifting east. But whatever fits your narrative and makes you sound better.

The pettiness doesn't bother me, I'm just here to learn because I love this stuff.

He did a great job with a very difficult setup and deserves to gloat. So many people on this board were mesmerized by the often misguided globals and refused to look at why they may be wrong and why the mesos may be right. I don't know how many times smug posters stated with complete certainty days before the actual event that this was always going to be a New England storm and that anybody from nassau county west would get very little. I was laughed out by a poster for even bringing up the hi-res nam and other meso's when it appeared that they may be on to something. PB was absolutely spot on.