Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Given the last SREF they would have to put at least moderate potential for 8"+. That's solely off the SREFs. That would be a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Northern Vort digging better, should at least improve again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Again nam looks really good, see if it translates at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like our 3rd piece of energy diving out behind the northern stream that was our “kicker” is was out ahead this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Note how much faster than Midwest energy dives down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 48 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like our 3rd piece of energy diving out behind the northern stream that was our “kicker” is was out ahead this time Good thing or bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Some of this is sleet, but you definitely don't see this every decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Snowman86 said: Good thing or bad thing? That's good, shouldn't be pushed east as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 987 just off SC shore, about 150 west from previous run same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 987 just off SC shore, about 150 west from previous run same time Getting the better sampling in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like the 18z NAM is still going to kick the storm OTS. That last piece is still too slow to phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z nam is gonna go ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I thought 12z Monday this thing was suppose to be narrowed down and figured out? More questions then answers. Figured out - 12 hrs before ground zero...nailed - 4 hrs prior lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z has low same location as 12z but pushes snow further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: 18z has low same location as 12z but pushes snow further west It was stronger, need that energy to phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Precip shield better compared to 12z on this run. Still just a glance for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Precip shield better compared to 12z on this run. Still just a glance for most here. Much better solution than 12z. This run was more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nyc .07 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, snow1 said: 18z nam is gonna go ots. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3k Nam looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow that was pretty close for the 18Z Nam. Look at how the last piece of energy just dives in to almost save the day. We should watch this feature in future runs. More Northern Stream interaction is what led to a more expansive precipitation shield to the west for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nope By ots, I meant east of where we need it for big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Another big hit by the latest RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Still gets booted out, but NAM has less value after 54-60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The SREF Plumes for LGA are averaging 10", and ranging from 0" to 28". The mean is up from the last two outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: Still gets booted out, but NAM has less value after 54-60hrs. 3k Nam is further west and closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: 3k Nam is further west and closer to the coast 12k And 3k out to 60 noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Another big hit by the latest RPM That is rarely uselful beyond 24-36 hours if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That is rarely uselful beyond 24-36 hours if I'm not mistaken Every High Resolution model is now onto the idea of this coming to the BM. They are resolving the CFI that the globals are not. The N stream gets samples by 0z tonight and it's wave speed will determine this forecast , not the models everyone hugs. Keep in mind every model deepens this more than 20 mbs in 24 hours coming from Hatteras to the BM. So besides having a very cold 700/850 mb level tremendous upward motion is going to be present so ratios here are a true 15 to 1. This should come right up I 95 and the chance is increasing that this is a snowstorm from NC to NE. The Globals are not resolving this well , Miller As like to ride the Arctic boundary not east of the BM with the ridge axis so far West. I am close to pulling that trigger as the EPS got better again at 500 . Looking at its Hatteras latitude it has gone from 66 to 68 to 70 over its last 3 runs , I expect that to do the same near our latitude. This has a chance to do really well along I 95 and once the N stream is sampled all the models will be in place by 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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