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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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12:27PM OKX Discussion:  

Based on SBU CSTAR
ensemble/wave packet analysis, sensitivity to this forecast
appears to be tied to nature of energy rounding an Aleutians low
tonight into Monday (modulated by wave packet energy emanating
from Central PAC), which will ultimately phase with and dig the
the polar jet mid week. Would think that models should have a
better handle on this energy 30-36 hrs from now when it is over
NOAM. Have stayed close to GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs of 30 to
50 percent for 1/10th inch QPF over the region Wed Night into
Thu Night. As noted yesterday, both a limited impact offshore
track or significant wind/precip impact closer to the coast
track are still equally possibly at this point.
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The look out west right now is very complex and modeling will have a very difficult time figuring out how each piece of the puzzle will develop.

There are four elements that will determine the fate of this threat. There is the Pacific ULL, the leading SW (which is in Canada right now), the trailing SW, and a lobe of the TPV that phases in last. 

C39DFB77-AFEE-4B24-8873-D897FFE64917.thumb.jpeg.be2b973013d8c529298300da3766ae75.jpeg

There is no way modeling will figure out both the momentum and interactions between the different pieces of energy at 100 hours out. I am encouraged by the trends today, as it appears that the seasonal theme of a more meridional  PNA ridge and stronger NS shortwaves is presenting itself again. I am certain that we will continue to see changes even up to gametime due to the complexity of the setup. Latent heat release due to convection can even provide enough of a spark to move the storm farther west. As I’ve said multiple times before, phasing situations are extremely touchy.

We’ve seen much more dramatic shifts inside of 48-72 hours for the better (BDB, Jan 2016) and for the worse (Jan 2015, Mar 2017). We will have to wait a few more days until making solid conclusions regarding the track and intensity of the storm. The distinct possibility of a double-barreled LP system makes the threat even harder to model effectively at range. In summation, I am content with the trends today, but we will have to wait to see if this storm will continue to trend for the better or pull the rug out from under us. 

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17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The look out west right now is very complex and modeling will have a very difficult time figuring out how each piece of the puzzle will develop.

There are four elements that will determine the fate of this threat. There is the Pacific ULL, the leading SW (which is in Canada right now), the trailing SW, and a lobe of the TPV that phases in last. 

C39DFB77-AFEE-4B24-8873-D897FFE64917.thumb.jpeg.be2b973013d8c529298300da3766ae75.jpeg

There is no way modeling will figure out both the momentum and interactions between the different pieces of energy at 100 hours out. I am encouraged by the trends today, as it appears that the seasonal theme of a more meridional  PNA ridge and stronger NS shortwaves is presenting itself again. I am certain that we will continue to see changes even up to gametime due to the complexity of the setup. Latent heat release due to convection can even provide enough of a spark to move the storm farther west. As I’ve said multiple times before, phasing situations are extremely touchy.

We’ve seen much more dramatic shifts inside of 48-72 hours for the better (BDB, Jan 2016) and for the worse (Jan 2015, Mar 2017). We will have to wait a few more days until making solid conclusions regarding the track and intensity of the storm. The distinct possibility of a double-barreled LP system makes the threat even harder to model effectively at range. In summation, I am content with the trends today, but we will have to wait to see if this storm will continue to trend for the better or pull the rug out from under us. 

 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That's what we have to watch for in later runs. Models are currently jumping the center further east than the 540 thickness line. In the March 93 phase the low developed right on the 540 thickness line. If models correct to that location in later runs, then the low will be more tucked in near the SE Coast.

f84.thumb.gif.6e725fed09f854713ddb3e4f7e131145.gif

031315.thumb.png.42eda4cb66b8e326c969e49a2c4335d3.png

 

 

These are outstanding posts. With so many moving parts and still 4 days to go, a lot of things are going to move around before we finalize a solution. 

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24 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

EPS wetter than the op out this way. Plus, whatever I would need to do to have E29 verify, I'd do it.

OP - 0.5"

EPS - 0.7"

I’m just not understanding the low precip amounts out there based on the overall evolution. I think precip is being under some done out there. Based on this coming up from a warm moisture laden area. I could easily see this having a feb 13 style deform band out there. 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m just not understanding the low precip amounts out there based on the overall evolution. I think precip is being under some done out there. Based on this coming up from a warm moisture laden area. I could easily see this having a feb 13 style deform band out there. 

QPF is the last indicator I'd consider right now. The 500mb evolution will hopefully continue to improve and precip will follow along with it. 

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