• Member Statistics

    15,570
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    diviningweather
    Newest Member
    diviningweather
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

Recommended Posts

I’m beginning to think that this wall of dry air midways up the SC coast that has been eating all the precip all day has pretty much ruined our chances for snow in the NE SC area...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

3k NAM is not going to look very much better, precip-wise than the 12z, it looks like, from what I see so far.

it may still be reacting to that very dry air. Once the column is saturated, the radar returns should expand back out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Pack, the precip field back west looks much better though.  I guess that's good.  Let's see if the next frame can do what the NAM can't and show some snow back here.

LOL...There's a snow hole between you house and Packs.

 

aaaa.jpg

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

3k NAM is not going to look very much better, precip-wise than the 12z, it looks like, from what I see so far.

Yeah, it didn't look as good as I was hoping. I can't believe I'm going to say this but, it doesn't look right for that strength of LP and fairly close to the coast. Weenie!!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Never had good luck with the HRRR or RAP but it's all we got.  And they actually match up with the Euro/GFS too.

3M9xaKW.gif

Darn if it isn't trying...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't hang to much on each HRRR/Rap run they will fluctuate run to run but the overall trend is good, more expansive precip, and a good looking low bombing should really get things cranking in another 3-4 hrs......in the end the snow maps they are spitting out are more likely to bust low that high IMO.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the bigger thing to notice instead of models right now is the radar blowing up along the coast with those returns making steady progress inland.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

I think the bigger thing to notice instead of models right now is the radar blowing up along the coast with those returns making steady progress inland.

what radar do you use?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weenie post!  I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now.  Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, rduwx said:

Weenie post!  I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now.  Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick.

We're going to need all the precip we can get to overcome the dry air. But I am also very hopeful for an inch or two.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, rduwx said:

Weenie post!  I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now.  Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick.

NWS Raleigh not impressed updated AFD.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 333 PM Wednesday

...Winter Storm Warning in effect for counties along and east of I-
95. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for counties between U.S.
Highway 1 and I-95...

We did not change the Warning or Advisory areas. However, trends in
the observational data and the latest models  with the 12z/03
January run for the event, have been drier inland over central NC,
and faster in ending the snow over the Coastal Plain. The
observational data continues to support this idea as very dry air
continued to advect into central NC from the NNW. The winds have
backed to the NW in response to the deepening storm well off the SC
coast at mid-afternoon. Dew points were near zero in the NW and
Central Piedmont ranging to 10 or so around Clinton and Goldsboro.
Needless to say, this is a very dry air mass and it continued to dry
from the NW over inland areas. Light snow has been
developing/spreading northward into the southern part of the
Sandhills where some very light trace accumulations have been
reported around Rockingham and even Southern Pines as of 330 PM.
Temperatures have leveled off in the 29-34 range, with readings
expected to fall from here.

Light snow is expected to overspread the southern and eastern third
of our region by 00z/this evening, with a chance of light snow as
far NW as Wadesboro, Sanford, Raleigh, and Louisburg by that time. A
light dusting to 0.5 inch is expected, mainly south of Sanford to
Smithfield to Wilson by 00z/this evening. The very dry air in the
west and north will greatly limit the NW extent of the precipitation
shield, with plenty of evaporation and likely a few hours of virga,
even in the east.

The light snow is expected to spread north and northeast, with the
emphasis along the Interstate 95 corridor this evening into the
early morning hours of Thursday. This occurs as the low deepens and
tracks along or just east of the Gulf Stream off the SC/NC coast.

The trends from this morning continue to suggest the dry air will
win out over much of the eastern Piedmont where only a dusting is
expected. We will maintain the Advisory area but concede that this
most likely would be a worst case scenario.

The Coastal Plain is still expected to get 2-4 inches of snow (the 4
inches should be east of Interstate 95), with 2-3 inches on average
expected over the Warning area. This is 25 percent less than the
previous package due to the trends.

Snowfall amounts are expected to taper off rapidly from the
Intestate 95 corridor to the U.S. 1 corridor, with less than an inch
expected from Laurinburg to Raleigh to Warrenton.

Only a brief snow flake or two can be expected over the NW third of
central NC, with essentially nothing in the Triad region. Many of
the latest models suggest only a trace even in the Raleigh area, but
especially over the NW side of the Triangle area.

The snow is expected to taper off quickly from the southwest between
midnight and 400 am, with only some light snow showers lingering in
the NE zones after that time.

Clearing and breezy conditions expected later tonight to near
daybreak in the east. Lows in the upper teens to mid 20s NW to E.

Timing: Light snow developing through the late afternoon and early
evening in the south and east, spreading northward along the
Interstate 95 corridor, as far west as U.S. 1. Snow ending late
tonight.

Confidence: High confidence in the precipitation type, snow given
the super cold air mass and very low thicknesses. Temperatures may
stay 32 and below if the clouds continue to thicken, but even areas
that hit 32 will fall quickly by sunset (especially in the SE where
snow is expected to evaporatively cool the column into the 20s after
the snow onset).

High confidence in using a 10:1 or 15:1 snow ratio given the dry air
mass, and high confidence in a frozen ground and road temperatures
will lead to very efficient snow accumulations in areas that see
significant QPF.

We have high confidence in 2-4 inches of snow in the far eastern
Coastal Plain, but the confidence in getting 1 inch as far west as
the current advisory area is less certain. High confidence in no
accumulation in the NW Piedmont, including the Triad far removed
from the storm track and deep in the cold arctic air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

We're going to need all the precip we can get to overcome the dry air. But I am also very hopeful for an inch or two.

I'm going positive here and say we'll see at least an inch.  You know we've been in a snow drought if we're excited for an inch...LOL!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.