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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

JMA looks like a bomb...no idea on precip, though.  Probably meager, like the other globals.  How about the ICON?

looks euroish, which makes sense because it's so closely related. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Take your metric system like a big boy. 


I think 27MM=1in

Ha nice.  Then I'm probably not calculating it right.  It's like a 6hr average in mm.  So I don't know.  The first panel had .1 units, the next frame had .25 units, and the third frame had .1 units, whatever that means.

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19 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Can't remember from my more-engaged winter tracking days the reliability of the HRRR, but we are coming into its range. Shows a much more western extent of precip than even the hi-res short-term models with snow breaking out as far west as Panama City at 9z tomorrow. 

hrrr.png

Do you think we come close this event? 

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/christmassnow1989

 

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ha nice.  Then I'm probably not calculating it right.  It's like a 6hr average in mm.  So I don't know.  The first panel had .1 units, the next frame had .25 units, and the third frame had .1 units, whatever that means.

25.4 = 1" to be exact

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

26.2 = 1" to be exact

Good deal!  Any idea how much the Navgem is actually showing?  Like, not that it matters in the least, but it gives us something to do between server crashes.

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I can’t imagine the mossy oaks in the FL panhandle will fare well in an ice storm.  Hard to believe some of the model output I’m seeing for this area.  Wish I was further east, but things are looking mighty interesting...

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Just now, tramadoc said:
5 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:
25.4 = 1" to be exact

Well, just a shade under but close enough for government work. LOL

yeah, lol  me too on the metrics for work. I saw your post and realized I was wrong

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7 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Based on everything I've seen on here, this feels a little conservative.5a4bbff6c6a91_ScreenShot2018-01-02at12_22_08PM.png.6de362001b8f696726d6f8c431a9d97f.png

They always go very conservative.   Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right.  

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

They always go very conservative.   Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right.  

Absolutely. I respect them over the others for sure, but I'm hoping this is wrong.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

They always go very conservative.   Fishel was very very skeptical of the storm has January and ended up being right.  

He was very skeptical of the Jan 2000 storm too and kept having to up the totals more and more till it was we don't know how much it's gonna be. It is what it is.

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2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

He's going to wait on the euro.

You always know they're not sure when they're not going into a whole lot of detail. Usually as they get more certain they explain what they're looking at that shows whatever they're forecasting.

Greg has some weenie in him, he'll explain the letdown if/when it comes lol

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Just now, Steven_1974 said:

He was very skeptical of the Jan 2000 storm too and kept having to up the totals more and more till it was we don't know how much it's gonna be. It is what it is.

 I went to bed after seeing him say "trace to an inch for us here in Raleigh" - 20 inches later well it was all history!

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Based on everything I've seen on here, this feels a little conservative.5a4bbff6c6a91_ScreenShot2018-01-02at12_22_08PM.png.6de362001b8f696726d6f8c431a9d97f.png

That's a great forecast for what we know at this point. They can always ramp up later today or tomorrow, but would not want to put out higher amounts and cause panic.

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1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

You always know they're not sure when they're not going into a whole lot of detail. Usually as they get more certain they explain what they're looking at that shows whatever they're forecasting.

Especially this dang close to an event. 

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Just now, Tar Heel Snow said:

You always know they're not sure when they're not going into a whole lot of detail. Usually as they get more certain they explain what they're looking at that shows whatever they're forecasting.

You won't find a met that's more of an expert on NC weather than GF. He is a big fan of the EURO for good reasons.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That's a great forecast for what we know at this point. They can always ramp up later today or tomorrow, but would not want to put out higher amounts and cause panic.

I was reading a piece yesterday on their website  from about 8 Years ago and he was reflecting on Jan 2000. “I’d rather be right than first.” I respect that.

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1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

I was reading a piece yesterday on their website  from about 8 Years ago and he was reflecting on Jan 2000. “I’d rather be right than first.” I respect that.

 He usually is and will show the math to explain.

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