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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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2 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I would keep an eye on the precip field the next couple hours.  Models like the RAP have it really consolidating and tightening up, bringing most of the precip closer to shore and not interior NC much at all.

The precip field is already more expansive to the North especially and somewhat to the west compared to what short term models showed for this time frame.

Now, it could be the virga is so expansive that most are under virga the whole storm and see nothing and the models precip field more accurately depicts where it will actually fall and accumulate.

Will be very interesting to watch for sure.

hey, fellow stallings guy!  Im afraid we're gonna be under virga the entire storm....or atleast the part of the storm that affects us, which is like an hour long, lol.  Too much dry air

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I was a bit iffy on snow totals here (NW Va Beach) since I'm always afraid it'll mix more than modeled, but I feel better now... Thank you for your insight. 
Maybe all our room and gloom has been misguided.

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Seeing noon met updates saying the storm is showing signs of being pretty impressive and it could come in more west. Idk. Thought I’d throw that out there. 

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3 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

hey, fellow stallings guy!  Im afraid we're gonna be under virga the entire storm....or atleast the part of the storm that affects us, which is like an hour long, lol.  Too much dry air

Yea I doubt we see anything other than some rogue flurries if a band breaks off and moves through here.  That was more meant for others to the east of here.

Downeastnc, the other crazy part about what you posted is the low placement.  I overlayed the first low with much more precip and it is quite a bit further east than the second image.  Not often we see a low move 100 miles west when we want it to move west, but the precip then moves 100 miles east at the same time...?

 

image.png.59572c370c8ff98de6a5c81bc88f2ada.png

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The good news is the HRRR is finally starting to shift the double low to the west and developing it stronger. Looks like it is transferring energy to the primary low that is west sooner this run, much sooner.

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58 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Yeah, it’s Virga. And here in Myrtle beach that blue is just 30 degrees and raining atm 

Goldman, where in MB are you?

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

The snow has just moved in over my house.  Only 5000 feet to go.  It's a race against the clock!

Atleast we don't have to worry about temps for once.  Don't get to say that often. 

Think the RAP is doing a little better then HRRR...I hope.

get_orig_img.php?model=rap&run_time=16z&

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16 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea I doubt we see anything other than some rogue flurries if a band breaks off and moves through here.  That was more meant for others to the east of here.

Downeastnc, the other crazy part about what you posted is the low placement.  I overlayed the first low with much more precip and it is quite a bit further east than the second image.  Not often we see a low move 100 miles west when we want it to move west, but the precip then moves 100 miles east at the same time...?

 

image.png.59572c370c8ff98de6a5c81bc88f2ada.png

Yeah good graphic, all info points to a monster bomb off the SE coast and that's rare hard to imagine it doesn't crush central and eastern NC

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Atleast we don't have to worry about temps for once.  Don't get to say that often. 

Think the RAP is doing a little better then HRRR...I hope.

get_orig_img.php?model=rap&run_time=16z&

Latest HRRRRR ticked back west a bit.  Back with a little snow over Wake.  We'll see.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Latest HRRRRR ticked back west a bit.  Back with a little snow over Wake.  We'll see.

Euro ticked NW again...has you 1.5-2", NW Wake has 1".  But yeah, it has 2" up to Wake Co (well west of 95).   3-4" for FAY.  

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So the precipitation seems to have been blocked at this spot for about the last 4 hours...

B6E8FA72-BCDA-41A9-BF33-382F29E41E57.jpeg

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Lol, wasn't it just last year (or maybe the year before) that we had a weaker low sitting right over Hatteras, 25ish miles west of the one below,  and we got rain and sleet here in the Triangle while places to the west got several inches?  SMH

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_19.thumb.png.7a5cde38cc935a4936b5df823bffd3dc.png

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Latest HRRRRRRR continues to trend slower and more westward with the low.  No longer dry for Wake.  May look slightly better than the last run, precip-wise, if you can believe that. :bag: :weenie:

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Latest HRRRRRRR continues to trend slower and more westward with the low.  No longer dry for Wake.  May look slightly better than the last run, precip-wise, if you can believe that. :bag: :weenie:

Maybe if you let the system develop as it bombs over the afternoon rather than reacting to ever model like it's the end of days you'll feel less of a need to obsess. Models are only telling one story right now, and the jet is making a symphony.

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5 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Maybe if you let the system develop as it bombs over the afternoon rather than reacting to ever model like it's the end of days you'll feel less of a need to obsess. Models are only telling one story right now, and the jet is making a symphony.

Maybe, but obsessing is more fun.  Thanks for the tip, though. ;)

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