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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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looking at the radar, is it just me or does it appear like more precip is blossoming just west of south carolina? not sure if this was modeled

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Lol @ Deep Thunder.

I'll bet lots of people will be happy if that one verifies.  Can't wait to see the 12z WRF-AWR-2-GEM-OMGITISN'TGOINGTOSNOWINRALEIGH

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Brad P just released a vid and seemed to have increased totals further west..basically splits RDU in half 2-4 inches on the east side and 1-2 inches on the west side. in his first map he had RDU getting flurries. will be interesting how this thing unfolds

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1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

Brad P just released a vid and seemed to have increased totals further west..basically splits RDU in half 2-4 inches on the east side and 1-2 inches on the west side. in his first map he had RDU getting flurries. will be interesting how this thing unfolds

yup.  he seems confident its goin to snow in this area...just doesnt think its gonna be much

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Dave Williams (local Charleston meteorologist) just RTed a Mesoscale Discussion saying there was going to be heavy freezing rain for the next few hours for the entire SC coast for the next few hours before the changeover to all snow.

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Looking at the radar, what’s causing the precipitation to just stop about midways up the SC coast for about the last hour and a half?

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There is obviously a lot of bias for Raleigh here because a lot of members are from there but could anyone here update me what the coast is looking like? Have expected snow totals stayed the same, increased or decreased?

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Just now, scottk said:

Looking at the radar, what’s causing the precipitation to just stop about midways up the SC coast?

hrrr showed this nicely, precip just hits a wall and begins to pivot offshore. 

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We just had a few minutes of freezing rain here at the house.  We're about halfway between Myrtle Beach and Conway.  30° at the house so it's already about to go downhill here

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2 minutes ago, sctvman said:

Dave Williams (local Charleston meteorologist) just RTed a Mesoscale Discussion saying there was going to be heavy freezing rain for the next few hours for the entire SC coast for the next few hours before the changeover to all snow.

So difficult to predict how stubborn the warm nose will be. The sooner we changeover the more snow we get. I certainly would rather have the snow than this ice we're getting now.

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3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

0.00" qpf for rdu. oy.

hrrr_apcpn_seus_10.png

seems a bit extreme..has areas east of RDU that expect blizzard conditions with low QPF as well

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1 minute ago, sctvman said:

Snow starting to mix in around Summerville. Statesboro, GA is covered in snow. 

summerville is going to jackpot i believe. big totals coming.

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4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

hrrr showed this nicely, precip just hits a wall and begins to pivot offshore. 

Ok. I guess that “wall” is exptected to wear down at some point

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7 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

There is obviously a lot of bias for Raleigh here because a lot of members are from there but could anyone here update me what the coast is looking like? Have expected snow totals stayed the same, increased or decreased?

Monitoring from DC but looks like 4-8 is a safe bet for Little Washington 

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Nice partly cloudy day here in Raleigh.  Always good to see before a big winter storm.  Looks like convection clustering along the lower SC coast, att.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Monitoring from DC but looks like 4-8 is a safe bet for Little Washington 

Thank you. My local news stations have been pretty quiet about this storm and kind of downplaying it and I’m trying to learn here but a lot of the more complex stuff just goes over my head. 

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20 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

There is obviously a lot of bias for Raleigh here because a lot of members are from there but could anyone here update me what the coast is looking like? Have expected snow totals stayed the same, increased or decreased?

I think you're in a good spot.  If I were making a call for that area, I'd go with 3 to 5 inches.  I do think mixing issues is what's going to keep your totals down.  Good luck.

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