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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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2 minutes ago, Regan said:

NWS still less then inch for Wake. 

Well in the WWA the nws did mention the 1-2 inches for the advisory area which included Raleigh and Wake County :

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
348 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...Snow expected to impact portions of central and eastern North
Carolina this afternoon through Thursday morning...

.Intensifying low pressure off the Carolina coast will bring a
threat for snow to the eastern half of North Carolina from noon
today through Thursday morning. Bands of heavy snow are possible
over eastern portions of the coastal plain late this afternoon and
evening.

NCZ010-026-041-077-086-032030-
/O.EXA.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.180103T1700Z-180104T1200Z/
Warren-Franklin-Wake-Harnett-Hoke-
Including the cities of Norlina, Wise, Afton, Warrenton,
Lake Gaston, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, Franklinton, Raleigh,
Cary, Dunn, Anderson Creek, Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier,
Lillington, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, Rockfish,
and Silver City
348 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Warren, Franklin, Wake, Harnett and Hoke Counties.

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For those Raleigh, Charlotte, Greensboro people, this is really interesting from GSP:

 

As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.

Concern is growing that a baroclinic leaf structure might start
lining up farther west than anticipated today as the system goes
solidly neutral tilt over Georgia this afternoon, then negatively
tilted crossing the western Carolinas. Upper jet divergence ahead of
this feature should sharpen up very quickly over the central
piedmont of the Carolinas from 18Z to 21Z and a robust region of
deep layer Q-vector convergence will likely cross the area as well.
Meanwhile, the associated surface reflection will likely develop
near the north Florida coast and then deepen northward over the
Carolina coastal waters. All of these features may well come
together to provide just enough moisture, and improving forcing, for
snow showers to develop mainly southeast of Charlotte. This could
lead to some quick accumulations of snow on the very cold ground,
especially over Union County NC this afternoon and early this
evening. The current feeling is that any strong frontogenesis bands
will set up east of the forecast area, so we shouldn`t be looking at
any heavy convective rates in our forecast area - unless the
aforementioned slower and more westward trends accelerate. Radar
trends will need to be monitored closely today for a short fuse SPS
or winter weather advisory should any snow showers threaten the
lower piedmon
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News around Raleigh this AM is still less than inch in Wake. That’s really discouraging. To be so close time wise and still hug the euro/gfs so completely. Last night Fish say most likely the highest even east sees was 2in or so. 

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For what it's worth, I saw a ring around the moon this morning driving into work in Raleigh, NC.   It's faint, but it is certainly there.

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NWS still going with .25-.30 ice and 1-3" snow for mby. I know there will be a special sounding balloon this morning out of CHS (along the coast) to help with the pressure drop.

TWC is going all in with 6-8 for mby and 8-10 just across the bridge in Beaufort/Ridgeland    :lol:   Radar returns are at my door step  :D  

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Gardner in WRAL this AM isn’t wanting to saw a whole lot it seems in amounts in Wake. Live, she said “aggressive” models suggest 1-2 here in Raleigh and the app says this:

 

7823ECB4-A7A4-4AB4-9AE4-2C6D1CBC9DFB.jpegSounds like we may get little notice. Seems they are setting us up for changes. Still being vague. 

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15 minutes ago, Regan said:

Gardner in WRAL this AM isn’t wanting to saw a whole lot it seems in amounts in Wake. Live, she said “aggressive” models suggest 1-2 here in Raleigh and the app says this:

 

7823ECB4-A7A4-4AB4-9AE4-2C6D1CBC9DFB.jpeg

So their forecast is... We don't have one we will wait until the event is happening then make a forecast. What a joke! Of course this is the station that tells their viewers "central nc is the hardest place to forecast weather". Just terrible 

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WRAL mets have pretty much sold out for the sake of "accuracy." sure they've been burned a few times and i understand them not wanting to bust but they dropped the ball big time on this one. all the local mets have. Now they're all scrambling.  

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I know it’s frustrating but they did the same thing last January and ended up right.   Fishel has said a million times he’d rather be right than first.   There must be something with this system they don’t quite like yet.  

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I look at this way...  I get the tv mets fears of ratings. They get a lot of trouble from viewers. No envy there. I do however think they need to be more upfront. Just say look, get your stuff together because where it could be 1-2, we could be wrong here and it could be more because this is a complicated situation that doesn’t happen in these parts often. Just buy what you need.  Yeah, we have free will and can go against them and buy food to stash, but so many people depend and hang on their last word and will be unprepared. So, for their sake...  anyway. 

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I’m starting to be concerned about power outages in Eastern NC. 5-8 inches of snow with up to quarter inch of ice and winds up to 25 mph. We aren’t really prepared for conditions like this. Thankfully I have a generator but I’m concerned for people who don’t have that luxury. 

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I’m getting concerned about the wind potential and power outages from this. Latest 3km nam suggests gusts to 50mph to I-95 and near 100mph on the Outer Banks...

 

BC19926A-91C4-4006-AF07-213C0C79BB24.png

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at the model radar forecast, it looks like the actual precip is more westward and robust.

We'll have to watch this today to see how far precip develops to the west.

 

aaaa.jpg

It always end up more NW with the precip.... this thing is gonna be a monster..... 

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Charleston is basically closed today. People are taking no chances with this snow. Almost nothing is open. Will probably be another little bit before it starts. Schools closed, most work is closed.

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Keep the discussion on topic. If you don't like what your local met is saying, go to school....get a degree....replace him/her and forecast away, while explaining the reason you think this way. Until then....drop it  ;) 

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Of course the 3k Scam caved for the Triangle.  Of course it did.  What a piece of garbage.  It can’t be wrong when it shows the snow west.  Nope.

Anyway, it’s going to be fun watching this unfold today.  Very powerful storm.  West hallucinations should begin shortly. :)

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Of course the 3k Scam caved for the Triangle.  Of course it did.  What a piece of garbage.  It can’t be wrong when it shows the snow west.  Nope.

Anyway, it’s going to be fun watching this unfold today.  Very powerful storm.  West hallucinations should begin shortly. :)

The best short range model is the rgem

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