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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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8 minutes ago, Regan said:

Havent checked in on Brad P. is he saying everyone is stupid?  He usually does when he thinks it’s bs. 

He hasn't said too much other than the WSW for the coastal sections. He doesn't expect much if anything for his forecast area. 

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7" totals as close to the city as Chesterfield. That is 55 miles SE as the crow flies. Statistically speaking, a 50 mile model shift is practically nothing.

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The 16z HRRR may be on to something at the end of it's run blowing up convection in Northern Florida. None of the Global models have this feature:

 

HRRRSE_prec_radar_018.png

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1 minute ago, jjwxman said:

The 16z HRRR may be on to something at the end of it's run blowing up convection in Northern Florida. None of the Global models have this feature:

 

HRRRSE_prec_radar_018.png

How does the HRR verify, particularly at the end of its range?

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11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The 3K NAM has 3"totals as close to Charlotte as Midland and 1" totals as close as Kannapolis and Concord.

As cold as it has been an inch of snow would cause a lot of travel issues. Anything that falls this far west will stick instantly. 

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the HRRR tends to generally be a little amp-happy towards the end of its run.

Nevertheless, that's a major winter storm it's showing for the FL panhandle and the models do tend to be trending in that direction, so maybe it should be heeded.

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the HRRR tends to generally be a little amp-happy towards the end of its run.

I tend to like the NAM 3km a little better than the HRRR with close range precip/temp placement

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This has a solid chance of overperforming - especially after how December was handled, I wouldn’t expect the NWS/TV mets to predict 6”+ of anything until 4” are already on the ground and heavy flakes are flying. 

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14 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

what in the world

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

Looks like that would throw a huge deform band over central NC but that run keeps the deep precip nearer to the coast. Hope the precip amounts will go up further West closer to game time.

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a definite shift west with precip on the euro compared to 00z. 00z had snow right into florence county in sc and 12z has it stretching well into chesterfield county. a few more shifts west like that and clt will have a shot at some snow.

 

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The Euro is WAY west compared to the 00z and much stronger. Looks like the Euro wants what the HiRes models have been smoking the last 36 hours.

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12Z Euro actually putting some decent snow into the southern Midlands of SC especially along the US 301 corridor. 

After watching in the background all week, have enjoyed the  great discussion as always guys and gals. 

IMG_8107.PNG

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5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

a definite shift west with precip on the euro compared to 00z. 00z had snow right into florence county in sc and 12z has it stretching well into chesterfield county. a few more shifts west like that and clt will have a shot at some snow.

 

Look at the 3K NAM. We aren’t too far out of the ballgame. I still doubt it happens but it’s enough to keep me interested.

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Euro definitely west of 0z, SLP is almost where 3km has it at 42 hours.   1” snow almost get to Wake Co.  95 and east is 2” with 5” in PGV

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