FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, downeastnc said: I would feel better about the hi res 10-15" outputs if the globals where more than 2-4"...that's a large difference in the two camps.....MHX calling for 3-4" for MBY so that's pretty good I will take that all day. It's a war between the short and long range models. We should be putting more weight now on the short range, but I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 6z 12km NAM and 6z GFM have the SLP almost in the same spot but GFS has minimal precip inland. 12km is stronger but 986 on the GFS is fairly stout and should get more then 0.1" to PGV. If the NAM is correct with that track and strength then PGV to 95 look like the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Would like to believe the 3km NAM but...952? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 WRAL/Gardner says "possible" 1-4" Wednesday night. Some warnings are up but east of I-95 only so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: The 6z 12km NAM and 6z GFM have the SLP almost in the same spot but GFS has minimal precip inland. 12km is stronger but 986 on the GFS is fairly stout and should get more then 0.1" to PGV. If the NAM is correct with that track and strength then PGV to 95 look like the sweet spot. Any other storm and I feel like us central NC folks would be jumping for joy at that low position off Cape Hatteras. There isn’t much model support for it, but I still have a hunch the globals are missing something. It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented (just have to think back to December). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Would like to believe the 3km NAM but...952? Yeah that's friggen insane and it goes from like 990ish to 952 in like 8 hrs.....that if it verifies is borderline blizzard conditions in eastern NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I have lived in Central NC my whole life and it seems like most of these coastal setups over perform to some extent on the western edge. However, this is some very dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ajr said: Any other storm and I feel like us central NC folks would be jumping for joy at that low position off Cape Hatteras. There isn’t much model support for it, but I still have a hunch the globals are missing something. It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented (just have to think back to December). The 12km NAM looks really good for SLP track, just a hair east for what we ideally would like, the 3km is near perfect track but it deepens it to 952. If the 12km NAM is correct wouldn't be surprised to get a little snow. I still don't know why the GFS is so dry, the air is really dry so I get it, and we don't have a gulf feed to moisten but these are really big/strong lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6z GFS ensembles moved LP west (from 0z) but precip field contracted or didn't change on western cutoff. Not sure how that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: 6z GFS ensembles moved LP west (from 0z) but precip field contracted or didn't change on western cutoff. Not sure how that happens. I know...I don't get it at all. I am sure it's correct, we usually scratch our heads and then after we realize it was right. Keep coming back to Dec 2004...this was the SLP track during that event. Of course this one originated deep from the gulf but SLP track looks close to what the models are printing out...except this one will be deepening rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: 6z GFS ensembles moved LP west (from 0z) but precip field contracted or didn't change on western cutoff. Not sure how that happens. How good are some of these models at figuring out how much a storm can overcome very dry air? Is that why we are seeing the differences in westward extent of the precip regardless of SLP location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 3km NAM had issues with overamping tropical systems, I bet it's having the same issues with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That atlantic ridge has been trying the past few runs...it gets an A for effort, need this to keep up another 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The globals can pick up the broader dynamics like the NS press I suspect and that can compress the western edge like a brick wall is all i can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 With most systems, the globals have been abandoned at this short range, but it seems like folks are holding on to them still because they don't believe the short-range. This one could sneak up on a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: The globals can pick up the broader dynamics like the NS press I suspect and that can compress the western edge like a brick wall is all i can think of. Well starting with today's 12z runs the meso's should really be leading this, it's so complicated. The models are not phasing with that trailing wave but have more separation, which is good if we can keep the first h5 low strong. Nice trend on the NAM...PV low over Canada is pointing more SW (slower kicker) and southern vort isn't bad. We need close to some miracle changes to get anything over a dusting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So when you look at Globals vs meso models the similarities are there. The ONLY major difference between the groups is how much precip is inland... so so in reality the Globals are backing the high res they just don’t see the precip. We are definitely in Meso model range. Guys I think this might be a big one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, ajr said: If the low forms a big cut off over SC and the kicker trough hangs back then yeah....but nothing is showing that. It's hard not to stare at the pic below and dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: So when you look at Globals vs meso models the similarities are there. The ONLY major difference between the groups is how much precip is inland... so so in reality the Globals are backing the high res they just don’t see the precip. We are definitely in Meso model range. Guys I think this might be a big one.. You PGV guys, I would be surprised if this isn't a big winter storm for you. NAM has you guys tainting with sleet but still, would love to trade places with you guys. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kpgv.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: So when you look at Globals vs meso models the similarities are there. The ONLY major difference between the groups is how much precip is inland... so so in reality the Globals are backing the high res they just don’t see the precip. We are definitely in Meso model range. Guys I think this might be a big one.. That's what I'm hoping. For us Central NC folks to get 2-3", we need you to get 10". So I'm really pulling for you to score big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Only pause I have is the EPS qpf mean is pathetic for eastern NC. That's usually very reliable inside 60 hours. It's not even close to getting that 0.5" line to PGV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: Only pause I have is the EPS qpf mean is pathetic for eastern NC. That's usually very reliable inside 60 hours. It's not even close to getting that 0.5" line to PGV. Yeah the globals are all pathetic with QPF and this could easily bust and end up a 1-3" event here.....or the hi res could be right and we get a foot.....pretty much the typical winter storm dilemma we have here....we all know which one of those two scenarios tends to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: If the low forms a big cut off over SC and the kicker trough hangs back then yeah....but nothing is showing that. It's hard not to stare at the pic below and dream. Hard to look at and realize this thing manages to give nothing to anyone, except the coastal people. What a text book setup that will be shunted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This event is all or nothing. It’s such a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9Z SREF mean is 3.71 for RDU; 1" for GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston SC 333 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 SCZ048-049-051-021645- /O.NEW.KCHS.WS.A.0001.180103T1100Z-180104T0500Z/ /O.CON.KCHS.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/ Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Coastal Jasper- Including the cities of Beaufort, Hilton Head Island, and Edisto Beach 333 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills this morning. Expect wind chills to range from 15 above zero to 5 above zero. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on Wednesday. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches are possible. * WHERE...Beaufort, Coastal Colleton and Coastal Jasper Counties. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 10 AM EST this morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Significant reductions in visibility are possible during winter precipitation Wednesday through Wednesday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and gloves. A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Poimen said: 9Z SREF mean is 3.71 for RDU; 1" for GSO. Unfortunately that number is pretty well inflated by one 22" outlier. There's a lot with 0 or a trace...best case hopes are dwindling. EDIT: That one 22" member went from 10" --> 22" from 3z to 9z. I'll have whatever that's having lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 44 minutes ago, ajr said: Any other storm and I feel like us central NC folks would be jumping for joy at that low position off Cape Hatteras. There isn’t much model support for it, but I still have a hunch the globals are missing something. It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented (just have to think back to December). Mhx doesn' even mention any hi res outputs in their overnight afd. They talk about the agreement of the globals and then give us a general 1-4 event. So close to something special but it seems the hi res models are on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 SREF QPF doubled this run. It wasnt much but thats something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.