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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Going to be a LONG next two-three days all.  Lots of spread!

ETtracks_neus_storm02_ensemble01.pngwebsite_cyclonetrack_legend_nontropical.

It seems some of the models have converged on a track well offshore the NC coast - gets fuzzy for MA area. The MA folk are probably biting their nails right now, lol. 

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Any of the 'left' one-third of those tracks would be sweet hit for RDU. 

The 'mean' and wide right would be a miss.

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7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any of the 'left' one-third of those tracks would be sweet hit for RDU. 

The 'mean' and wide right would be a miss.

This is a scenario when us SE Wake folks near JoCo may get something and RDU misses out.  Which would be perfectly fine because it is the other way around 90% of the time.

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Local grids look like snow for 10-12 hrs mostly after dark with temps falling well into the 20's...

Wednesday
A chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

I guess hope for e1 :(

Nope, I don't think any of those members have the final solution. Too much spread between the high res models and the globals. Let's get this energy sampled and then go from there.

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Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Nope, I don't think any of those members have the final solution. Too much spread between the high res models and the globals. Let's get this energy sampled and then go from there.

Fair. And one model/ensemble is never going to be perfect. Hence why forecasting is so difficult.

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^ Low seems farther offshore.  I do expect the precipitation progs to expand west (assuming the surface low doesn’t start trending east), as that is a common occurrence.  I’m not sure we get the dream scenario of the 3k Nam, though. I said it in the Sanitary thread, but if we could get just one main model to show one run like that, it would be a lot easier to swallow.

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This is a tough one.  The main global models (GFS, CMC, Euro, UKMet) really aren't budging, just minor wobbles.  The hi-res NAM and RGEM are sharper with the wave at the base of the trough, bring precip farther inland, and are warmer aloft along the coast (850mb warm nose). 

Do you say that 1) the hi-res models are too sharp at the base of the trough and will trend SE toward the globals, 2) the globals will become sharper at the base of the trough and trend NW toward the hi-res models, or 3) take a blend?

I'm inclined to go with a blend at this time.  The areas I like best for snow accumulation are along a line from Lake Moultrie, SC (NNW of Charleston) to Whiteville, NC to Kinston, NC to Greenville, NC to Norfolk, VA

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17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

21z SREF came back down to reality.... only showing a mean of around 1" or so for mby.

Can some one give a quick background to the SREF?  Is it just the ensemble version of the NAM?

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17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Can some one give a quick background to the SREF?  Is it just the ensemble version of the NAM?

Basically yes, though unlike other ensembles it has two different kinds of models (13 ARW members and 13 NMMB members). The NMMB members are more of a "true" NAM ensemble, though all 26 members are generally considered as a single unit.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

NAM with a trend toward the globals

Of course.  It was on an island.  Hopefully, the outer banks get a nice snow.  It’s a great climo time for it.

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

So the LP is actually closer to the coast than 18Z yet less precip. Interesting 

It's less amped this run at 500mb.  Precip going to snow right close to the coast as it gets going good

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Just now, negative-nao said:

Local forecasters calling for up to 3 inches in Berkeley County South Carolina not sure what model they are looking at

Models mixed with gut intuition from their knowledge and experiences.  Something models don’t have.  Hoping they’re right for your sake assuming that’s where you’re from :)

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