mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Snow in the panhandle of FL, about to crush Packs anti-weenie game! Same or better than the last run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow, 18z NAM more amped with precip over north Florida -- not quite as cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow.. figured it wpuld be amped up though with the SREF the way it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: Wow, 18z NAM more amped with precip over north Florida -- not quite as cold though. I’m telling you what man. So many times we’ve seen the qpf trend even more crazy as the event nears. That thing is Uber amped right now and ready to bring the goods. That look at 500 is phenomenal. Usually a good indicator as well nam will amp some when you have the SREF way west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Low is bombing a bit earlier there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Snow in the panhandle of FL, about to crush Packs anti-weenie game! Same or better than the last run! It's not the same or better...the SLP is east of 12z run. And the west trend has stopped. The PV low over Canada is pressing down more, curious to see how far north it can climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Low is bombing a bit earlier there Yeah, and everybody keeps calling out your handle for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Big QPF in SE GA on NAM. Looks like heavy dynamic snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Aiken, SC to just west of Savahnah getting crushed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Big QPF in SE GA on NAM. Looks like heavy dynamic snow easily biggest snow there ever by leaps and bounds...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 low pressure tightening up just off the GA coast line at 51... lookin' windy and snowy over E GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: How's more precip in SC ?? Surface low placement, is not everything! I don't live in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Aiken, SC to just west of Savahnah getting crushed this run Getting so close to here. I can almost smell it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RAH Afternoon disco Snow is expected to begin spreading into the Southern Coastal Plain during the early afternoon, spreading north as the afternoon progresses, and then tapering off over all but perhaps the Northern Coastal Plain by midnight. A tight QPF gradient is expected at this time, peaking ~0.15 inches in the eastern Coastal Plain. Using a climatological ratio of 9:1 gives us amounts of an inch or slightly more along and east of Interstate 95 tapering to a trace to a few tenths in the Triangle and Sandhills areas. Since we're still 48 hours out, snowfall amounts will be highly subject to uncertainty inherent with the location of the strong cyclogenesis and potential for banded precipitation. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Oof. Our precip doesn’t look good with this run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 546dm about to cutoff over SAV at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Big QPF in SE GA on NAM. Looks like heavy dynamic snow yeah...southeast ga just gets annihilated. A lot more liquid precip...about a half inch more. Back edge of the precip is about the same but given the fact it's a touch slower aloft and the sharpness...i'm again a bit surprised there isn't more precip further inland. The main negative factor of snow not falling over interior ga/sc more is the column is very dry initially so a lot of virga is falling. But man...at 500mb it sure looks dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 will it keep inching nw with the precip shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow, this is going to put down a stripe of some serious snow somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's not the same or better...the SLP is east of 12z run. And the west trend has stopped. The PV low over Canada is pressing down more, curious to see how far north it can climb. Actually look at hour 57 and toggle back to hour 63 on 12Z. It’s way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I guess I will take my cold rain here in Wilmington. NAM seems locked into that at least. I am hoping you guys in GA and SC score big along with NE NC. NAM seems locked into this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think we are starting to see why the Euro/EPS/GFS/GEFS have SLP tracks that are closer to the coast but qpf is not increasing into NW NC. Compare NAM v/s CMC. We need the big low over Canada more west, NAM has it right over and thus QPF can't get north and SLP tracks around it. Don't listen to Mack, doesn't know what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Wow I don't see why that look isn't translating better for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Wow Username checks out. This thing is a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 KILM AFD hot off the Presses.. cliff notes Temperatures will average 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Chances are increasing that a coastal low pressure will bring wintry precipitation to the area on Wednesday. We MAY break a record Low Temp this evening, (which is 14) Ilm: 14, set in 1928. Forecast low is 14. -------------------------------- Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/... as of 300 PM Monday...the big story this period is the potential for a decent winter storm across the area. The reliable GFS and European model (ecmwf) models continue to show good run to run consistency with the important parameters. A potent shortwave will dive into the Tennessee Valley spawning low pressure well off the southeast coast. Moisture will overspread the region early Wednesday with decent isentropic lift and some mid level frontogenesis. There will obviously be a very cold airmass in place. As we will be on the western periphery of the storm total quantitative precipitation forecast amounts aren't overly impressive and have been wobbling back and forth either side of about a quarter of an inch with the higher amounts on the coast. The NAM, which is much wetter with low pressure much closer to the coast has been discounted. Regarding the all important thermal profiles, the GFS mav numbers have leaned toward more all snow as have the BUFKIT soundings. With the warm nose not all that impressive my feeling is that boundary layer temperatures will dictate precipitation type. I basically used a 34 degree line to differentiate rain or snow. With the weak warm nose, the chances for melting aloft have diminished and therefore have the chances for sleet or freezing rain. Using a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio (this is a little higher than climatology) and accounting for some rain Wednesday afternoon, the latest forecast shows a swath of just over two inches across inland New Hanover and Pender counties trending downward as you go west and south. This matches up well with wpc and adjacent offices. All kinds of caveats here of course. Snow to liquid ratios could be higher, so could quantitative precipitation forecast. If quantitative precipitation forecast is lower or there is sleet or freezing rain that could change accumulations. Finally any watches or warnings will probably begin later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Any chance this thing cuts off, sits and spins and bombs away circa Jan 2000? What feature will keep this from cutting off and stalling off the coast of SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy for those getting pummeled on this run, but selfishly...another close one that’s just not going to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: Happy for those getting pummeled on this run, but selfishly...another close one that’s just not going to pan out. trend is our friend my man. This setup and LP placement historically kicks butt for Central NC. Every system is different but man it doesn't get to looking much better than that with the cold air supply we'll have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Too bad! You'll get some flurries LOL...your such a tool sometimes. Well most of the time. Great run for SC and people south. The west trend has stopped, atleast for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Happy for those getting pummeled on this run, but selfishly...another close one that’s just not going to pan out. 5h is much improved. Idk why everyone is jumping ship. The low is taking over closer to the SC/NC coast. If that happens no way the weakening dual low structure east of that tugs it away. Very possible it cuts off. Very possible Nam is on some type of recreational drug throughout the run to some degree as well. Just never know with the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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