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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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Good luck to you SC/NC guys! Just wanted to ask a quick question. Maybe I am grasping at straws, but is there any way Atlanta could get some snow out of this? Any way a big enough NW trend could put Atlanta in play too? It would be awesome because the snow would stick around for a while since it's so cold. But, Atlanta already got a great snow in Dec :) That was enough to make me happy for the entire winter.

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Inside 72 hours it was the worst with our storm earlier this month.

 

Yep, my dusting that the Euro and GFS showed 3 days out turned into 10”. Even the NAM 3km struggled showing those type totals in my area 36 hours before the storm. I relied on the NAM 3km and it proved to me that it can lead the way for my area. Also helped me yesterday with the freezing rain/grapel event.

 

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The western ridge has a march 93 look to it, with the various jet streams lining up (arctic/polar/STJ). This is different than your traditional small cutoff/partial phase we often see.

 Notice you can draw a line from alaska all the way down to the GOM. The 2nd GIF is from March 93. This will ramp up/accelerate parcels of air down the jet stream to the bottom of the trough axis (amplifying it) and then back northeast up the other side of the trough. This will create a jetstreak over the east coast seen at the bottom on the NAM. As the parcels accelerate back up the jet stream and vacate it creates a vaccum, rising motion results and you get huge dynamics in the Right Rear Exit Region of the jet streak  (aka exploding SFC low pressures). That's why we're seeing these 950mb lows being spit out. The global models are not going to be accurate with the exact timing of the bombing out on this one. The question for me is when does the bombing start?   

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_3.png

 

[GIF]

 

Notice the lack of 300mb winds off of SC/NC. This an area of massive rising motion. A bombing SLP would result as we see on the NAM.

180101183456.gif

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1 minute ago, Hvward said:

 


Yep, my dusting that the Euro and GFS showed 3 days out turned into 10”. Even the NAM 3km struggled showing those type total in my area 36 hours before the storm. I relied on the NAM 3km and it proved to me that it can lead the way for my area. Also helped me yesterday with the freezing rain/grapel event yesterday.

 

I am not wish-casting here, but climo has to be taken into account. Coastal storms like to ride the thermal boundary. The surface low depiction on some of the global models just don't match the 500mb set-up. This screams a more westward track. I believe the higher resolution models will lead the way on this one just like they did with the last storm. Just going off past history.

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10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The western ridge has a march 93 look to it, with the various jet streams lining up (arctic/polar/STJ). This is different than your traditional small cutoff/partial phase we often see.

 Notice you can draw a line from alaska all the way down to the GOM. The 2nd GIF is from March 93. This will ramp up/accelerate parcels of air down the jet stream to the bottom of the trough axis and the back north up the other side of the trough. This will create a jetstreak over the east coast seen at the bottom on the NAM. As the parcels accelerate back up the jet stream and vacate it creates a vaccum, rising motion results and you get huge dynamics in the Right Rear Exit Region of the jet streak  (aka exploding SFC low pressures). That's why we're seeing these 950mb lows being spit out. The global models are not going to be accurate with the exact timing of the bombing out on this one. The question for me is when does the bombing start?   

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_3.png

 

[GIF]

 

Notice the lack of 300mb winds off of SC/NC. This an area of massive rising motion. A bombing SLP would result as we see on the NAM.

180101183456.gif

 

 

Wow. There does look to be many similarities :)

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

What are some analogs to this system? I have seen many years thrown around, but which ones are legit? I love looking at analogs and they help during hurricane season. So, any analogs?

Two of the top 3 from the analog page: 

 

1. Tidewater/NENC snowstorm from December 2004.

 

3. 1/25/2000

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NAM trend as the wave drops south... Notice the western ridge growing taller and the arctic wave moving faster along, both allowing the southern wave to dive farther south and give it more room to develop and pull it to a neutral/neg tilt faster.

SJIl27V.gif

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5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

What are some analogs to this system? I have seen many years thrown around, but which ones are legit? I love looking at analogs and they help during hurricane season. So, any analogs?

Here are the analogs for the  12z NAM

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2018010112&map=tbl

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11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I'm sure thats your best analog :weenie: . Don't worry i'm riding the 2000 one till the wheels on the bus fall off. Then will have to fix that and Packs wipers. 

No, in all seriousness it does. The low didn't form in the gulf, like this one. It also rode up the coast from Florida, but not well inland. Cold air was well established as well. As much as I would love 20 inches of snow, I feel like we would be lucky to get 3 or 4 inches. Just because the analog I picked was that one doesn't mean that is what I believe it will do :+). Though I hope so lol.

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13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

500mb much different with this one. Trough did not go negative with that one. 

Sure, but there are no perfect analogs. For me the set up of the low and the direction it is going along with having cold air in place is a good start. It is also listed in the NAM's analogs and not too far down the list.

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@HKY_WX couple questions for you. #1 do you expect the 500 setup based on past weather related instances for this to keep trending in a more westward fashion? #2 do you expect a more well defined western qpf shield than what the models are portraying at present? Finally #3 can we expect more significant adjustments or are we pretty much capped as to how much we can shift this thing? Thanks for your insight and knowledge you drop in to the forum. 

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14 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I'm sure thats your best analog :weenie: . Don't worry i'm riding the 2000 one till the wheels on the bus fall off. Then will have to fix that and Packs wipers. 

Actually that's not far fetched. It could very well end up an I-95 jack-pot. This is a tricky set up, and I would not rule anything out just yet. Whatever happens, it has still been fun watching the trends.

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