Met1985 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 For the mountains peeps the best thing we can hope for is a great upslope event which is still very sketchy with such a cold dry air mass coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I’m surprised that no one noticed the GFS took a HUGE step towards the CMC/EURO of last night with the vort wrapping up nicely and trying to go neutral for this system. It’s a little late but what we want to see. 00z CMC 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: As long as we have that massive arctic front hitting I do not think we get a storm. The high pressure is just going to eat anything in its path. I agree, I think this pattern has clearly shown itself to be cold and dry. The northern stream is too dominant and the west not amplified enough to get real digging. Without a nino I wonder if we'll ever get an active STJ this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: I agree, I think this pattern has clearly shown itself to be cold and dry. The northern stream is too dominant and the west not amplified enough to get real digging. Without a nino I wonder if we'll ever get an active STJ this year. You hit the nail on the head! Northern stream dominant and these waves are not strong enough for these arctic highs. Suppression is a huge issue at this point and it looks like the troughs are deep into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 So we have a consensus with UK/CMC/GFS for a miss to the SE. It’s a ball tracking these misses...and it looks like Ryan Maues site isn’t free anymore. Going to be in the dark on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: So we have a consensus with UK/CMC/GFS for a miss to the SE. It’s a ball tracking these misses...and it looks like Ryan Maues site isn’t free anymore. Going to be in the dark on the Euro. euro is still free on weather.us i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: euro is still free on weather.us i believe yeah but the ensembles don’t come out until 3:30 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: euro is still free on weather.us i believe Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I’m surprised that no one noticed the GFS took a HUGE step towards the CMC/EURO of last night with the vort wrapping up nicely and trying to go neutral for this system. It’s a little late but what we want to see. 00z CMC 12z GFS Good pick up Snow! I have been busy at work this morning, however reviewing the 12z GFS, this think is close to going full nuke status. This has some serious analog similarities written all over it. The fact that Euro actually agrees with the general depiction at this point is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Who wants to pay to see the Euro make us go 0/4 on the day anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: So we have a consensus with UK/CMC/GFS for a miss to the SE. It’s a ball tracking these misses...and it looks like Ryan Maues site isn’t free anymore. Going to be in the dark on the Euro. It’s the trends tho. Take the GFS for instance, 6Z it tracks south of Cuba, 12Z has it tracking near Miami. One more shift like that and it’s tracking over JAX and some east of 95 are worried about BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Who wants to pay to see the Euro make us go 0/4 on the day anyway? My hands are up...LOL! I really like the look on this storm. It might be because the possibilities of this being a big storm are there. It probably has a higher percentage of being nothing but it has me intrigued. Go big or go home...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Who wants to pay to see the Euro make us go 0/4 on the day anyway? The Euro hasn't been removed from weather.us, . . . yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Who wants to pay to see the Euro make us go 0/4 on the day anyway? We are tracking model consensus on model misses!? How sad are we?? All wishing for a NW trend, that can't logically happen? Or we could score on the 7/8th event as pattern relaxes and we warm into the 50s and go cold after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: The Euro hasn't been removed from weather.us, . . . yet. I haven’t been out there today. It’s almost more fun waiting just to ride the emotional roller coaster of the pbp on these boards, rather than looking for yourself, knowing how it’s going to turn out in advance. At least here, you get to feel the model output: BOOM! Digging more! Staying intact longer! Farther west! Not getting sheared as much! NE vortex lifting out quicker! Much more like (insert model showing snow here)! Loving the trends! Big step in the right direction! Precip braking out farther north! Colder! Less suppressed! Gonna be good, I think! Ok, that was close. Definitely a better look. Man, if abcdefg were just slightly better/different/oriented different/faster/slower/taller/steeper/shorter/harder, that would have been a monster. On to the (insert model showing snow here). This pattern sucks. That is so much more fun than looking at a model run by yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, rduwx said: My hands are up...LOL! I really like the look on this storm. It might be because the possibilities of this being a big storm are there. It probably has a higher percentage of being nothing but it has me intrigued. Go big or go home...LOL! The fact that an RDU poster started the thread gives me at least a modicum of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: Respectable 1034 banana high pressure zone centered over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Our local met says we go below freezing on Sunday night and don't go above till Wednesday!? (CJ) Must be looking at CMC?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Next week might be the best shot we’ve seen at getting close to zero than we’ve seen in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Next week might be the best shot we’ve seen at getting close to zero than we’ve seen in some time. It would be amazing to see what it could do with at least 6” of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 GEFS members show an event for the Carolinas and 2 get it back to RDU. Probably an accurate percentage of the chance of this happening...10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: 3 GEFS members show an event for the Carolinas and 2 get it back to RDU. Probably an accurate percentage of the chance of this happening...10%. Considering it was south of Cuba last run, that’s a huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Considering it was south of Cuba last run, that’s a huge jump. well you got to look at how much the low moved... 6z: Cuba 12z: Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I haven’t been out there today. It’s almost more fun waiting just to ride the emotional roller coaster of the pbp on these boards, rather than looking for yourself, knowing how it’s going to turn out in advance. At least here, you get to feel the model output: BOOM! Digging more! Staying intact longer! Farther west! Not getting sheared as much! NE vortex lifting out quicker! Much more like (insert model showing snow here)! Loving the trends! Big step in the right direction! Precip braking out farther north! Colder! Less suppressed! Gonna be good, I think! Ok, that was close. Definitely a better look. Man, if abcdefg were just slightly better/different/oriented different/faster/slower/taller/steeper/shorter/harder, that would have been a monster. On to the (insert model showing snow here). This pattern sucks. That is so much more fun than looking at a model run by yourself. You forgot my favorite: baby steps! Hers hoping the Euro takes baby steps today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: well you got to look at how much the low moved... 6z: Cuba 12z: Miami Yeah that’s what I’m talking about. One more jump like that and it’s hovering over JAX beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: You forgot my favorite: baby steps! Hers hoping the Euro takes baby steps today! I’m thinking the Euro will take a baby poo, but we’ll see. This pattern has featured flatter and weaker...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12z CMC ensembles still showing an I95 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I’m thinking the Euro will take a baby poo, but we’ll see. This pattern has featured flatter and weaker...so far. You can already see by hour 96 the Euro will miss wide right. Ridge axis is further east. This is just sad now...we should just delete all these threads and pretend the last week didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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