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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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As Allan posts the above, RAH just put this out...

As of 450 PM Wednesday 

We will add a row of counties to the west to account for current 
observational data / radar trends indicating accumulating light snow 
in Richmond... Moore... Lee... Chatham... Durham... Granville... and 
Vance Counties of the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont. An average of 
up to an inch is likely in the Advisory Area. 


...Winter Storm Warning in effect for counties along and east of I-
95. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for counties between U.S. 
Highway 1 and I-95...

We did not change the Warning or Advisory areas. However, trends in 
the observational data and the latest models  with the 12z/03 
January run for the event, have been drier inland over central NC, 
and faster in ending the snow over the Coastal Plain. The 
observational data continues to support this idea as very dry air 
continued to advect into central NC from the NNW. The winds have 
backed to the NW in response to the deepening storm well off the SC 
coast at mid-afternoon. Dew points were near zero in the NW and 
Central Piedmont ranging to 10 or so around Clinton and Goldsboro. 
Needless to say, this is a very dry air mass and it continued to dry 
from the NW over inland areas. Light snow has been 
developing/spreading northward into the southern part of the 
Sandhills where some very light trace accumulations have been 
reported around Rockingham and even Southern Pines as of 330 PM. 
Temperatures have leveled off in the 29-34 range, with readings 
expected to fall from here. 

Light snow is expected to overspread the southern and eastern third 
of our region by 00z/this evening, with a chance of light snow as 
far NW as Wadesboro, Sanford, Raleigh, and Louisburg by that time. A 
light dusting to 0.5 inch is expected, mainly south of Sanford to 
Smithfield to Wilson by 00z/this evening. The very dry air in the 
west and north will greatly limit the NW extent of the precipitation 
shield, with plenty of evaporation and likely a few hours of virga, 
even in the east. 

The light snow is expected to spread north and northeast, with the 
emphasis along the Interstate 95 corridor this evening into the 
early morning hours of Thursday. This occurs as the low deepens and 
tracks along or just east of the Gulf Stream off the SC/NC coast. 

The trends from this morning continue to suggest the dry air will 
win out over much of the eastern Piedmont where only a dusting is 
expected. We will maintain the Advisory area but concede that this 
most likely would be a worst case scenario. 

The Coastal Plain is still expected to get 2-4 inches of snow (the 4 
inches should be east of Interstate 95), with 2-3 inches on average 
expected over the Warning area. This is 25 percent less than the 
previous package due to the trends. 
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3 minutes ago, SandhillsSnowLover said:

I'm in a snow hole or something. What's up with that slot between Dunn, Smithfield, and Clinton on radar? Will it ever fill in? Geezzz!!

We got hosed with that big band just west of Wake Co.  The band to your east won’t get much further west.  Unfortunately we got snow holed...bummer.  But precip definitely made it further west than anticipated.  

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Just now, packbacker said:

We got hosed with that big band just west of Wake Co.  The band to your east won’t get much further west.  Unfortunately we got snow holed...bummer.  But precip definitely made it further west than anticipated.  

What would cause that hole?  Air to the west of us is even drier, yet snow made it to the ground there.

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

We got hosed with that big band just west of Wake Co.  The band to your east won’t get much further west.  Unfortunately we got snow holed...bummer.  But precip definitely made it further west than anticipated.  

It’s still coming, Pack

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6 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

What would cause that hole?  Air to the west of us is even drier, yet snow made it to the ground there.

The 3km NAM showed this, the hrrr has it but a tad further east.   Just bad luck with where the band setup.  We needed some luck, or avoid bad luck and we didn’t get either.  

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The 3km NAM showed this, the hrrr has it but a tad further east.   Just bad luck with where the band setup.  We needed some luck, or avoid bad luck and we didn’t get either.  

WAY too much freakout - there is no hole... its all about where the radar location is. Look at the band over RDU setting up on the ILM radar.

Its early. Chill

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4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

WAY too much freakout - there is no hole... its all about where the radar location is. Look at the band over RDU setting up on the ILM radar.

Its early. Chill

Who’s freaking out...ain’t my first rodeo.  Just talking weather.  As AA says...R E L A X

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14 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

WAY too much freakout - there is no hole... its all about where the radar location is. Look at the band over RDU setting up on the ILM radar.

Its early. Chill

You say no. Eric Webb twitter says yes. What the heck?  

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