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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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24 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Naw it' fine were it is B).....really though it should be pummeling most of the central and eastern part of NC with the low there. 

you would think so w/ a Cat 4 SLp sitting off the coast. I just want insurance. I never underestimate Raleigh's ability to screw up a good storm.

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I love how snow seems to surround us in the SE tip of NC. Even far south parts of the SE coast get more snow. To this day it is still weird to me why that is the case. It tends to happen with every storm no matter what angle it takes. Models seem to be shifting west some, so I fully expect to see cold rain before all is said and done. NWS keeps talking about snow here, however, the safe bet is to always call for cold/freezing rain here. They should know better.

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

you would think so w/ a Cat 4 SLp sitting off the coast. I just want insurance. I never underestimate Raleigh's ability to screw up a good storm.

It will come around, if we end up getting something like Jan 2000 here then you guys will end up 3-5" at least, especially the eastern side of the Triangle.....how many times have we seen the NW precip shield come in stronger than modeled as the storm moves up the east coast, its like every single one of them......though the west gradient is gonna be brutal as hell......

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Yeah the global models coming west is simply them getting in line with High res.

 

Watch the high res models instead of global. The high res ones are the models you want to come west. 

 

Here is the 3km nam for the past 4 runs. Notice how the SLP doesn't rly move much east or west in a trend it just wobbles and just slows down?  There isn't a really big west trend with the surface low pressure BUT there is a trend for more precip inland.  I don't expect the SLP to trend much more. 3KM is pretty rock steady BUT you guys should look for more expansive precip

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.11503073a0534b8d2642bd5d35eeade5.gif

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Our vort appears to be spinning it's way SE in western Kansas as we speak, per the WV.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

TY for that since i spotted that very thing yesterday as it moved into montana and noted here something was dropping south into wyoming......this isnt very close to what any model called for from the things i have read here and elsewhere.......

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15 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Such huge jumps for all of the global models with the 12z suite with the low placement.  All of them shifted over 100 miles I think.  Too bad the precip shield only shifted about half of that, for now.  We need to put more faith in the NAM and RGEM maybe?  Here's the Euro comparison from DT:

DSjpNeGWkAAgj_9.jpg

That is a huge difference in just 12 hours.  If we get just half of that over the next 12 hours, that will make a very big difference as to the effects here.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That is a huge difference in just 12 hours.  If we get just half of that over the next 12 hours, that will make a very big difference as to the effects here.

All you're seeing is the globals correcting to what the high-res models have shown all along. I expect very little shifts going forward now that they are in agreement with the meso models.

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

All you're seeing is the globals correcting to what the high-res models have shown all along. I expect very little shifts going forward now that they are in agreement with the meso models.

That's a good point.  It's a pretty volatile setup, where even a few small changes (convection, small changes in the speed of shortwaves, etc.) could still have a pretty decent affect on where the SLP forms.  So, we could still see even the mesos change a bit.

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3 minutes ago, Snovary said:

SREF mean down to less than 2 for RDU, probably means NAM is moving a bit

Gotta remembrer that RDU is way west.  Zoom in on the map and click the blue dot in eastern wake..  the mean is closer to 4 inches.

Wake is going to be a huge gradient (as it stands right now)

Time for the eastern part of the county to cash in for once!

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That's a good point.  It's a pretty volatile setup, where even a few small changes (convection, small changes in the speed of shortwaves, etc.) could still have a pretty decent affect on where the SLP forms.  So, we could still see even the mesos change a bit.

It's certainly possible but the meso models have been in a tight gradient with their tracks. I could see small 10-20 mile shifts but not the big 100+ mile jumps we saw in the globals. This looks to ride the natural baroclinic zone along the Gulf Stream waters and I think the SLP track is pretty much locked in now.

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46 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Let’s be generous and put you in .4, which would probably get me into two tenths. 

 

Seriously. If we keep seeing this thing move west, it’s possible.

Whats up Jeremy! It will be interesting to follow the Hi-Res/Short Term Models tonight/tomorrow, as well as the radar. Hoping we can sneak in on some of the action. Hope all is well and you all had a Happy New Year! 

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8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Here's the 850mb low per the NAM. Extremely stout and there will be an intense band of heavy snow about 100 to 250 miles west of the 850mb low. That would put the band around Greenville NC.

850 low.gif

Right....and another 50 mile shift west, albeit unlikely as the global and hi-res models are coming to a truce, would still only skirt RDU and maybe toss a flurry west of there.  So for the vast many here, this is looking more and more like a non-event.  It's a coastal folks, we just need to accept it and say congrats to dozens of posters who don't have a dog in many of our fights.

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47 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

we are seeing less QPF to the NW and W because the modeling is expecting us to have a lot of virga due to the current airmass? Just a theory

I would think so Jeremy. I know that we had INSANE DP's for that one storm that BUSTED back in the early 2000's. I cannot remember the exact date, but they had us under a Winter Storm Warning in CLT and surrounding areas for 6"-12" of snow. We ended up with ZIP - DE NADA. I remember Greenville, SC getting around 6"-8" while we were partly cloudy. Remember that one. Anyways, the Dry Air is a KILLER, so I hope we can get some luck on our side and have a ULL form or something to push some precip into our areas of the Piedmont. Hope all is well. 

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