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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We've become really reliant on model data to tell us what to forecast.  I don't know whether that's a bad thing or not.  But for public consumption, you rarely have a met step out against model consensus and issue a forecast.  Webb has been consistently arguing for a farther westward system, in terms of it's precipitation output, based on meteorological rationale and historical pattern recognition.  In all honesty, it could go in several different directions, but he's expecting the models to correct to his thinking.  I don't disagree with him.  I just always feel better when the guidance starts to show it.  It's great that we've seen some of the globals move west today, rather than the mesoscales cave the other way.  We're on the edge of a knife here.

Any small shift in the track of this thing and it's completely different. One way or the other.

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4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Well, the NAM does, but I agree. That's a long shot.

That is a reach but he knows winter storms for Raleigh.  But yeah, that would need the NAM’s to shift west.  That would be an epic modeling bust for the Euro/EPS too.  This isn’t just shifting qpf 50 miles on the GFS/Euro, this is like 200 miles.  

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39 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

No they haven't. Just look at the GFS changes I posted above for GA, HUGE increase and big differences for them. CMC just came in much snowier for a lot of us. High res models > Globals inside 48 hours.

Yeah, GFS went from showing nothing, to significant ice storm for SE GA, followed by an inch or two of snow. Also models trended colder to across SE GA. Most were showing a changeover to rain. Say the NAM/EURO/RGEM have the best handle on this. EURO had actually consistently had some type of wintry precipitation for SE GA every run for the past week.

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

That is a reach but he knows winter storms for Raleigh.  But yeah, that would need the NAM’s to shift west.  That would be an epic modeling bust for the Euro/EPS too.  This isn’t just shifting qpf 50 miles on the GFS/Euro, this is like 200 miles.  

Not trying to discredit or bash or say it won't happen but I've known of eric for a long time and he has always loved to throw the weenies a bone, but way back during sandy he nailed the models showing a far east solution and hammered on about them coming west based on h5 

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3 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

Not trying to discredit or bash or say it won't happen but I've known of eric for a long time and he has always loved to throw the weenies a bone, but way back during sandy he nailed the models showing a far east solution and hammered on about them coming west based on h5 

He’s obviously very smart and doubt he is doing this to be a hero.  I hope he is correct...even half correct would be good.  

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We've become really reliant on model data to tell us what to forecast.  I don't know whether that's a bad thing or not.  But for public consumption, you rarely have a met step out against model consensus and issue a forecast.  Webb has been consistently arguing for a farther westward system, in terms of it's precipitation output, based on meteorological rationale and historical pattern recognition.  In all honesty, it could go in several different directions, but he's expecting the models to correct to his thinking.  I don't disagree with him.  I just always feel better when the guidance starts to show it.  It's great that we've seen some of the globals move west today, rather than the mesoscales cave the other way.  We're on the edge of a knife here.

I don't disagree with anything you said.  Just a fascinating situation with the globals vs meso models literally giving us conflicting information.  This is where forecasters will earn their money - and their reputations. :)

 

It will also hopefully be a reminder to us hobbyists and laymen as to why we need forecasters.

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25 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

For the triangle folks, we need to the SLP to get to roughly the HAT point. That's kind of the benchmark if you want a major/historic storm. As of now, I am seeing this as a Jan2000 storm shifted east about 75 miles. That would put Greenville/Elizabeth City/Tidewater area as the major winners(12+) at this point in time w/ Raleigh in the 1-3 range. But keep in mind the last minute shifts we often see in the models, degree of strength/convection firing offshore on this one (Could influence downstream ridging via latent heat release) and the gulf stream. These mesoscale features can easily throw off a SLP 50 or 100 miles. This is what causes surprise snowstorms. Also, one of the most important things is often the 500 and 300mb patterns, which all look classic to me for the Triangle. Surface features are often the last feature to correct on the mods. Best of luck to everyone on this one, as it's going to crush some board members hearts.

Yeah I doubt we see Jan 2000 type totals but 12-15" lollipops inside a general 8-12" between I 95 and Hwy 17 and north of I 40 seems plausible at this point, though I really am trying to keep my expectations realistic...that said I am thinking we have a real decent chance at getting at least 5-8" IMBY

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Can't remember from my more-engaged winter tracking days the reliability of the HRRR, but we are coming into its range. Shows a much more western extent of precip than even the hi-res short-term models with snow breaking out as far west as Panama City at 9z tomorrow. 

hrrr.png

Hey man, I'm pulling for you! It's pretty insane how deep this second cold shot is going to push into the peninsula. 30s down to Palm Beach!

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I think we can now agree that the mesoscale models have definitely outperformed the globals as things have trended towards a LP closer to the coast and more precip inland. A blend of the NAM and RGEM should yield close to what we see transpire, especially the 00z runs tonight they should have things about nailed down... also kudos to the NAVGEM as it has been the one global that has consistently shown the LP near the coast and qpf well inland to RDU or so.

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Water temps in the Charleston area are cooler than I can recall. 47 degree water temperatures in the ocean. Still much warmer than the air temperature, but usually lower 50s is the lowest we get to during the year. That could be a difference in if we get more sleet or snow in the Lowcountry.

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