WiseWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: I will say this. Late phasers are historically difficult to model. See the 2010 Christmas storm, Jan 2000, Dec 2000 bust. THis is a dynamic setup. You'd be dumb to not follow this one until the last hour. Wasnt the christmas storm well ots 48 hrs prior to the onset and it took a huge jump NW on 0z on the 25th?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Maybe we start trending back toward a storm... 970mb low 60 hours out, how fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well the UK certainly brought the goods tonight for Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, bess said: Wasnt the christmas storm well ots 48 hrs prior to the onset and it took a huge jump NW on 0z on the 25th?? That's a different type of setup than what we have this time. I'll have to defer to the veterans to explain in detail though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Because the trough is so positive tilt, good shortwave phasing has to occur over Bama/GA in order to get the trough to neutral to get good precip back into parts of the central Carolinas. The 00z NAM went away from the phasing. Not having the phasing means less precip in coastal areas as well, but less of a warm nose, so its better for places like Wilmington and New Bern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, bess said: Wasnt the christmas storm well ots 48 hrs prior to the onset and it took a huge jump NW on 0z on the 25th?? Totally different setup. Low developed in the Gulf of Mexico, exited NE Florida. The 500mb way behind it and closed off at 500mb and was able to pull the storm north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I get the feeling it's going out to sea. Few inches along the east coast. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12/26/2010, I got 14 inches of snow but this is a different set up. We need the coastal low to bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This reminds me more of when Cape Hatteras got a foot of snow back in 2014. Coastal just stayed too far east. http://myfox8.com/2014/02/12/incredible-photos-of-snow-along-the-outer-banks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM a noticeable bit west, with Low and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Samuel Roback on Twitter said this tonight: With all the talk of phasing, for what it's worth, the RAP has been trending towards a more separated northern and southern stream all day. Would allow our trough to acquire a more negative tilt and throw precip farther west (Raleigh). We'll see phasing phasing schmasing basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Best case scenario 12/26/2004 One foot of snow on the peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Significant ice storm looking likely for SE GA now. 00Z GFS playing catch up and now looks like the NAM/EURO/RGEM. Winter storm watches are up now. Last winter storm watch for Waycross was February 2010. Nothing happened with that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The NAM says good morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: The NAM says good morning. That looks great! What's amazing is what it's showing down into Florida. Of course a lot of that is ice, but still any frozen precip is something to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM and NAM3 average for MBY is 10-12" and both mix me quite a bit if that doesnt happen you can probably bump those totals 2-4" at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Insane monster storm on nam and euro from a slp and stream phase perspective.... If these pressures are anywhere close to right holy cow..... this one will be fun to follow regardless... going to be tough for the mods to handle the dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Insane monster storm on nam and euro from a slp and stream phase perspective.... If these pressures are anywhere close to right holy cow..... this one will be fun to follow regardless... going to be tough for the mods to handle the dynamics I missed the Euro. Is it in line with the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Insane monster storm on nam and euro from a slp and stream phase perspective.... If these pressures are anywhere close to right holy cow..... this one will be fun to follow regardless... going to be tough for the mods to handle the dynamics RGEM is a monster as well. The upper level dynamics are incredible especially after hour 42. For NC, this definitely looks to be Raleigh and eastward storm. I'm thinking someone gets up to 18 inches along the I-95 corridor out of this when it's said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, wake4est said: I missed the Euro. Is it in line with the NAM? Not as far west but it bombs out again, lending credence to the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Not as far west but it bombs out again, lending credence to the nam. Yeah a blend of the hi res and globals is a solid thumping for eastern NC.....kinda rooting for the RGEM and no mixing issues, though in Dec 2000 we had mixing and still got 12-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah a blend of the hi res and globals is a solid thumping for eastern NC.....kinda rooting for the RGEM and no mixing issues, though in Dec 2000 we had mixing and still got 12-15". I’ve been looking forward to a storm like this for a long time. I’d be happy with 4 inches but it would be pretty awesome to see 12-15”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, wake4est said: The NAM says good morning. Probably means it's coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Insane monster storm on nam and euro from a slp and stream phase perspective.... If these pressures are anywhere close to right holy cow..... this one will be fun to follow regardless... going to be tough for the mods to handle the dynamics You holding onto hope that we see some? Im to your west in Granite Falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 WWA's well into Florida. Cross City, Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Not as far west but it bombs out again, lending credence to the nam. I am with you Brandon. This needs to be watched to the final hour. I have a hard time believing that if this thing bombs out like it is showing that more Precip will not spread further west. I know we would not see no where near the amounts that closer to the coast would see, but I have a hard time believing that we will not get something out of this. I guess it all depends on how this baby tracks. I know we have some super dry air to overcome as well! I am jonesing for another February 2004 type storm brother. HAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Insane monster storm on nam and euro from a slp and stream phase perspective.... If these pressures are anywhere close to right holy cow..... this one will be fun to follow regardless... going to be tough for the mods to handle the dynamics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6z NAVGEM jumped back westward. Has the low a little closer to the coast and a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I would feel better about the hi res 10-15" outputs if the globals were more than 2-4"...that's a large difference in the two camps.....MHX calling for 3-4" for MBY so that's pretty good I will take that all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: I would feel better about the hi res 10-15" outputs if the globals were more than 2-4"...that's a large difference in the two camps.....MHX calling for 3-4" for MBY so that's pretty good I will take that all day. You're in a good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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