Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I could be wrong, but part of the problem for central/western NC is that there is no tap from the GOM and I don't see any way for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...your such a tool sometimes. Well most of the time. Great run for SC and people south. The west trend has stopped, atleast for NC. It trended west again. Just look at hour 57 and toggle it back to 64 on the 12Z. Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I hope I done this correctly.. went to the site, clicked on the star, eg: Wilm, NC.. And got this.. good??? (snow) or bad, (No snow),, or so, so?? Highlighted in red is what I chose.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Great AFD out of TLH. Got to love the mid range starting with "Oh boy....". http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TAE&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Check out the 3k predicted radar and calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 High Res NAM bringing the precip inland more than 12k. With the upper level look, I think that's a better representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 So why did QPF drop off? The arctic wave was further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 nam showing some near hurricane force winds off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Check out the 3k predicted radar and calm down. Always forget about it weenie panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wow said: So why did QPF drop off? The arctic wave was further south. This does make sense as well and is the general theme of this winter where the cold just dominates every and any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The setup is pretty much ideal for GSO east from what the NAM is showing. The only issue is the degree of cold dry air in place. The cutoff line is going to be PAINFUL. Per the 3KM NAM , Raleigh is heavy snow while it's cloudy in GSO. Not really buying that, but it's interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM 3k snowmap lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It trended west again. Just look at hour 57 and toggle it back to 64 on the 12Z. Come on man. No it didn't, not for NC it didn't. Not saying it's right...but it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: So why did QPF drop off? The arctic wave was further south. Yep...we've been focused on these trailing waves phasing that is the biggest obstacle for you and I. Got to be weaker and/or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 958 mb. Blizzard for RDU east if this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Great AFD out of TLH. Got to love the mid range starting with "Oh boy....". http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TAE&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Hey, I know that guy! Or at least I did, in high school... CHS is playing it low-key so far: Tuesday through Thursday: Arctic high pressure to persist with a strong upper disturbance expected to move through Wednesday which will drive surface cyclogenesis off the Southeast U.S. coast. There remains some uncertainty regarding how close the low and associated moisture get to southeast SC/GA. For now we have leaned toward the drier GFS/ECMWF solutions compared to the wetter NAM but still have introduced some snow/sleet accumulations of around 1-3 inches, mainly along the SC coast and extending farther inland into Berkeley County toward Lake Moultrie. This matches fairly well with WPC`s snowfall forecast. At this time we are leaning toward the colder solution which would be more snow/sleet compared to freezing rain but all weather types cannot be ruled out at this time depending on the exact track of the low and evolution of the atmospheric temp/moisture profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Pack, check out that 3k snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: No it didn't, not for NC it didn't. Not saying it's right...but it didn't. Pack, to Blue Ridge’s defense, the upper levels at 500 are thee only good thing that happened on this run. It should’ve translated better on the surface but it’s obv the Nam being the Nam. Everything looked even more improved basically from 51-63 hours. It does it again and you would expect to see marked improvement on the surface at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: No it didn't, not for NC it didn't. Not saying it's right...but it didn't. I’m talking placement of the low. Surface will play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Sounds like per Allan’s latest tweets he’s not feeling it for RDU. Still, these runs are coming in unlike I expected. Maybe something is really there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Pack, to Blue Ridge’s defense, the upper levels at 500 are thee only good thing that happened on this run. It should’ve translated better on the surface but it’s obv the Nam being the Nam. Everything looked even more improved basically from 51-63 hours. It does it again and you would expect to see marked improvement on the surface at some point. No it didn't...the PV low was much more suppressive and shunts it east. See my post a page back and Wow just posted on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM 3k snowmap lol.. Crazy thing is that it's still snowing in a lot of NC at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 nesday and Wednesday night: This remains the period of interest regarding potential snow associated with a coastal low that will rapidly develop and quickly deepen during the day and Wednesday night as it lifts northward off the coast of the Outer Banks. There has not been much change in the thinking regarding this potential storm despite the 12z NAM coming in with an apocalyptic solution that has the surface low closer to the coast and is forecasting several inches of snow over our area with unreasonable amounts of QPF. This NAM solution was deemed an outlier and not given much consideration given the other operational deterministic guidance which has shown reasonable run to run consistency. The latest GFS looks very similar to the 00z run and keeps moisture generally east of the forecast area with the surface low further offshore and the bulk of the precipitation along and off the coast. The 12z Canadian and ECMWF had a very similar solution to GFS and are in good agreement so have decided to keep the current forecast in tact with slight chance of snow along the far eastern Midland counties but not expecting any accumulation at this time. Thermal profiles are such that any precipitation that falls would likely be snow due to wetbulb temps well below zero and diabatic cooling effects. NWS cola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wow said: So why did QPF drop off? The arctic wave was further south. Acted more like a kicker. The 500mb was almost cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: No it didn't...the PV low was much more suppressive and shunts it east. See my post a page back and Wow just posted on it too. My bottom line is the kicker. You have alluded to this in previous posts. That thing digs anymore south and it will help to lift this storm more north than east. 3k Nam people are posting looks darn good. I hope you get smoked dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The setup is pretty much ideal for GSO east from what the NAM is showing. The only issue is the degree of cold dry air in place. The cutoff line is going to be PAINFUL. Per the 3KM NAM , Raleigh is heavy snow while it's cloudy in GSO. Not really buying that, but it's interesting nonetheless. For real...same situation here. Taken these pasts two runs literally, heavy snow is falling 50 miles away (maybe less than that) while not a flake falls here. The dry air below 850mb is killing us...although the nam is showing enough RH for a few hours here and in the southern upstate that i would think at least a little light snow reaches the surface but it will be still be a challenge with surface dewpoints so low. Although there is a lot of dry air to ovecome, i wouldn't be surprised if there is at least a narrow zone of light snow that fall with the upper level shortwave as it crosses through alabama and ga . . the nam has hinted at it at times and there has been a few ensembles showing the same on the various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I guess I will take my cold rain here in Wilmington. NAM seems locked into that at least. I am hoping you guys in GA and SC score big along with NE NC. NAM seems locked into this solution. Weak Warmnose "forecasted" by KILM NWS, Dynamics will over come this fairly easy.. Hopefully there is a Warm nose at all... See the AFD I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On the 15z SREF, there’s members with as much as .8 for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 MHX Updated as of 300 PM Monday... Confidence continues to increase that we will see snow across Eastern North Carolina Wednesday into Thursday. The 12Z guidance continues to adjust a bit but overall remains in excellent agreement. It is still important to remember that with the rain/snow line intersecting our forecast area, we will likely be dealing with a large west to east snow gradient. Football may be a game of inches with weather being a game of miles. For our first estimate of snowfall amounts visit us on social media (NWSMoreheadcity), or head to weather.gov/mhx and scroll down and click on the winter weather icon. Since the snow starts later in our 4th period with the heavier amounts just beyond that (Wednesday night), in collaboration with Raleigh, Wilmington, and Wakefield we will not be issuing winter storm watches with this update. With our criteria of 3", if model trends continue and confidence grows, watches may be needed with future updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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