SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like the low is moving more nne than northeast. You would think that will throw moisture much further inland. Looks to move just east of hatteras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The trend is your friend today if your west of 95 it seems. Not so sure we have zero higher scoring globals on board right now. Although their relevance juxt to the SR models is diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS always moves in increments. It won't completely jump in 1 run at this short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Pack, you even get snow on that run. That can’t be right, can it? I like the 12km NAM...completely snow holed us. GGEM has more snow for DC now then us....so that atleast feels right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 possible light snow accums for Western SC/Western NC with continued trends? upslope snows for those in the Foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Models are trying to figure out what to do with the surface pressure field just off the coast (NW of the main low on the model), adjusting to lower pressures there each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Well UK at 72 looks east of CMC and way east of NAM...but we care about what happens before that. But based on the 48 hour map, the trough doesn't look as sharp as the 0z run. And assuming since nobody posted any precip out put from the 0z UK it couldn't have been good and this run looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Models are trying to figure out what to do with the surface pressure field just off the coast (NW of the main low on the model), adjusting to lower pressures there each run. yep its like clock work 850 vort is moving north this is why we shift the 0c 850 line NW at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM is rain in Boston...but it will be a windy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well UK at 72 looks east of CMC and way east of NAM...but we care about what happens before that. But based on the 48 hour map, the trough doesn't look as sharp as the 0z run. And assuming since nobody posted any precip out put from the 0z UK it couldn't have been good and this run looks worse. the 0z uk didn't look bad at all precip wise. snow all the way back to augusta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Lookout said: the 0z uk didn't look bad at all precip wise. snow all the way back to augusta. Well we will finally have the event within 72 hours so we don't have to wait on someone to post the QPF after 72 from RMaue's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 How does the ICON look?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the ICON look?? current vs previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3k NAM is real good with ptypes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: . That's interesting. Thanks for posting Frosty! I thought it was about the phase myself but HM would definitely know more than I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 UKMet looks a little further west, but precip panels aren't out yet. Anyone got them from another site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, rduwx said: That's interesting. Thanks for posting Frosty! I thought it was about the phase myself but HM would definitely know more than I would. Giving absolutes in weather, not wise, don't care who you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, rduwx said: That's interesting. Thanks for posting Frosty! I thought it was about the phase myself but HM would definitely know more than I would. Note that he says "for the eastern US". It does phase, it's just too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z cmc is a 95 special again. Looks good from just north of sav to outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: . My guess is he is talking about the PV low over the lakes...not the chaser. The chaser definitely phases and definitely helps the southern piece go neutral/neg, hour 42. At 66 you see the PV low drop down, that will not phase, if it did then yes, it would 93 redux. Yep...makes sense what he says...in the NAM runs you see the PV low (NS) kick out the southern h5 low, which is why the heaver QPF never really makes it to central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 UKMet precip is out on Meteocentre. It's a lot beefier than 00z and the low is definitely further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: UKMet precip is out on Meteocentre. It's a lot beefier than 00z and the low is definitely further NW. i'm a bit surprised it didn't really change the back edge of the precip further inland much, despite the better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: My guess is he is talking about the PV low over the lakes...not the chaser. The chaser definitely phases and definitely helps the southern piece go neutral/neg, hour 42. At 66 you see the PV low drop down, that will not phase, if it did then yes, it would 93 redux. If that phased, we'd get rain. So I'm fine without a triple-phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here’s the new UK precip panel. A crusher for Eastern NC with well over .5” in qpf, presumably as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, snowlover91 said: Here’s the new UK precip panel. A crusher for Eastern NC with well over .5” in qpf, presumably as snow. Wrong image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ukie is west of its 0Z run and stronger,have to see the qpf maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: If that phased, we'd get rain. So I'm fine without a triple-phaser. Yep...but the kicker part is the bigger worry now. Been so focused on when those two pieces of energy phase and never considered the PV low swinging through and kicking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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