Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z rgem looks more impressive precip wise than the 12z nam at 48 hours at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 51 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Where you at in Tallahassee? Definitely away from the water is the best. Tallahassee is about 45 minutes from the Gulf, so that shouldn't be a big factor. The airport is on the southwest side of town at low elevation along the plain (80ish feet, I think). I'm in the NE part among I-10 at somewhat higher elevation (200ish feet?), so if the miracle NAM run did happen, that would be pretty cool. I didn't expect to get NAM'd down here. It won't happen, though, so I wish I didn't see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z rgem looks more impressive precip wise than the 12z nam at 48 hours at least Very much so. Think that would extend back to I-85 in NC and possibly SC if that run were extended out further in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z rgem looks more impressive precip wise than the 12z nam at 48 hours at least It's also more west compared to the 6z (hr 42 compared to 48 on 6z). ....trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's worth repeating, can a nontropical storm not be closed off at 500mb and be so low pressure so far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's worth repeating, can a nontropical storm not be closed off at 500mb and be so low pressure so far south? Take a look at the longwave trough being depicted on the NAM... That's how you get bombogenesis. Now, is it accurate in that wicked trough depiction? who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS at 42 has the two pieces of energy at roughly the same spot as the NAM but just doesn't want to phase them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's worth repeating, can a nontropical storm not be closed off at 500mb and be so low pressure so far south? March '93 was lower pressure, so it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Finally have a global to join the party....not the one we want but it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS not budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Western ridge still trending taller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS holds it's ground, refusing to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, griteater said: GFS not budging The differences with the NAM's start at 36 hours...yeah the JMA came on board but it's the phase happy JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS at 42 has the two pieces of energy at roughly the same spot as the NAM but just doesn't want to phase them yet. Allan said hes focusing more on the shortrange models now, so while we wont totally discount the globals, the NAM and RGEM are the ones to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: The differences with the NAM's start at 36 hours...yeah the JMA came on board but it's the phase happy JMA. Shortwaves are going to be sampled today. Maybe more accurate runs at 0z? For better or worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS not budging compared to the 06z run it's slightly improved at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam,RGeM,JMA and then there's the GFS, which trended toward nam compared to its 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Icon and ukie up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 rgem at 500mb looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM nice jump west, waiting on better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Now we know how it feels to track noreasters up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM is going to melt this board...967 off the benchmark for boston. Looks like solid precip back to 95 on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GGEM looks like a decent hit for coastal areas of NC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I highly doubt its going to stop there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The trend is your friend today if your west of 95 it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS may be late to the party as usual but it was close as well just didnt want to phase until too late and shunted East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS holds it's ground, refusing to phase. Refusing to phase? 3 pieces of energy on that map. Could be a bomb or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Pack, you even get snow on that run. That can’t be right, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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