downeastnc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: That’s what was said last January and we know how that turned out. The nam is incredibly good at finding warm noses. It is at the end of its range and will all depend on the final track but seeing the ice this far out is a bit concerning. It is a shallow warm nose though so wouldn’t take much to cool that layer. Meh last Jan was nothing like this setup though.....to me it comes down to rates, if we are on the fringe and the precip is light drizzly crap then the warm nose wins out.....if the low comes closer and the precip is heavier it will scour that warm nose out and dump on us......we are very close to getting a significant snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 MHX write-up is pretty solid for this range, much more developed than it use to be. Quote .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Updated as of 300 PM Sunday... Wednesday through early Thursday storm potential... 12Z guidance has continued to remain consistent with the previous 0Z runs if not a tad wetter, especially the EURO. With another set of model runs showing precipitation over most of Eastern North Carolina, confidence is increasing that we may not miss out of this next system. It is important to remember that the upper level disturbance that will spawn this storm is just now west of Edmonton, Alberta. As this moves south the next few days and it continues to have better sampling within the upper air network, we should have a much better handle on it by this time tomorrow. That is the hope at least. Before we get too excited please keep in mind this is Sunday night and we are 3 days out from this event. A small wiggle east or west with the eventual storm track will drastically change precipitation amounts (whether we see anything or not) and thermal profiles (will it be a cold rain or snow). Used a model blend through the period to incorporate some uncertainty at this time range. Placed a heavier emphasis on the GFS/CONSALL/SUPERBLEND, which seem to be reasonable middle of the road option. Less emphasis was placed on the EURO which is the wettest and the Canadian which if the driest. Precipitation should blossom over the area Wednesday afternoon and may initially be in the form of rain with a bit of sleet or snow mixed in. Boundary layer temps are fairly warm at the onset with surface temperatures expected to be above freezing during the daylight hours. The main period of concern is Wednesday night. By Wednesday evening soundings go isothermal which will translate into either a cold rain or snow (with a bit of sleet possible in the transition area in between). Using the top down approach, strong lift in the column and some evaporational cooling supports a transition from rain to snow over the majority of our area outside of the Outer Banks and right near the immediate coast. Way too early to get much more specific than that, given trends could swing one way or another. Precipitation rapidly ends Thursday morning as mainly snow, but still a rain or snow mix over the Outer Banks where surface temperatures are just a tad warmer. Certainly an exciting time as we head into the first week of 2018! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 We need the 18z Navgem, Ironic, and Swiss Miss to straighten this thing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We need the 18z Navgem, Ironic, and Swiss Miss to straighten this thing out. Add the Australian and German for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: MHX write-up is pretty solid for this range, much more developed than it use to be. Yeah thats a much better write up than pat years.....just need this 100 miles closer to the coast and its game on for a big event I think...even as it stands now a few inches seems somewhat likely now with only the Canadian shafting us....and with the cold frozen ground and roads we wont have to worry about hearing about ground temps lol....and sun angle is about as low as it gets here EVER so there's no worry with that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How many models do you need to see to understand you get 0 snow! GFS looked like a jumbled mess that run! Not too far off trim the NAM run! GFS way much different at 5H than the NAM after about 54 hours. It handled the phasing much differently and was quicker with both pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z German came in a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How many models do you need to see to understand you get 0 snow! GFS looked like a jumbled mess that run! Not too far off trim the NAM run! Yup, its definitely not happening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: 18z German came in a bit stronger. Wonder if it actually gets precip inland this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder if it actually gets precip inland this time? Cutoff looks like the I-95 corridor but might be a little underdone given the 5H setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z cmc looks improved. Precip maps aren’t out yet but LP looks a bit stronger and slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 CMC much wetter inland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Need the precip further west. Flizzard in se wake. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Uh-oh. AKQ afd already mentions rain/snow mix until late into the night Wed/early Thu. Looks like Tidewater will get warm nosed, it's worrying that the NAM is already picking up on it. Hopefully it won't slash totals too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 How do the GEFS members look? Anyone have the slides? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: How do the GEFS members look? Anyone have the slides? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 hours ago, HKY_WX said: NAM just took a 75m NW shift. Could easily happen again. The pattern aloft would actually argue for a slightly further NW slp reflection on the NAM at 18z, however, the boundary layer conditions are so cold, the baroclinic zone further SE than it traditionally would be. Suggesting on theEast Side of the Gulf Stream? = baroclinic zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Well we just have to hope that NAM is overdone with this, it ALWAYS has a warm nose at 925.....we never EVER get snow chances here without this threat...every big snow we ever got here has this threat looming over our heads but the NAM isnt always right with the warm noses.....I will take my chances with the warm nose and a track 100 miles closer to the coast, versus no storm at all. Evaporation cooling will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z Canadian developing a gulf low like the 12zUK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z Canadian developing a gulf low like the 12zUK. That would be great! Get that to bomb and neutral tilt, hello GSP snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 There were 2 ensembles that were further west at 12z than 18z but there is a better cluster of westward ensembles on the 18z now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: There were 2 ensembles that were further west at 12z than 18z but there is a better cluster of westward ensembles on the 18z now Yep..nice to see the EPS and GEFS with more members showing eastern Carolinas hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 We all know this is going to continue to come west and end up blasting the I-85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That would be great! Get that to bomb and neutral tilt, hello GSP snow! It would have to start going neutral at the MS River, and neg tilt soon after to bomb a low in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wow said: We all know this is going to continue to come west and end up blasting the I-85 corridor. Yep, especially at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 CIPs finally perking up...took 90% to show but still counts :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 WOW,, please Give us Coastal peeps some love here, We do not want the dreaded "Warm nose".. Hoping for "Dynamic cooling".. Let us reel in the "Big Dog" of every 40~50 years or so.. Meanwhile.. Anyone up around OBX can confirm? DownEast ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep..nice to see the EPS and GEFS with more members showing eastern Carolinas hit. That gfs cluster also has more of a southwest/northeast orientation rather than circular..could be signs of a shift maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Uh-oh. AKQ afd already mentions rain/snow mix until late into the night Wed/early Thu. Looks like Tidewater will get warm nosed, it's worrying that the NAM is already picking up on it. Hopefully it won't slash totals too much.Crapola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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