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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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17 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

It's likely we'd have a westward shift with the s/w as we get closer, which could kick off the low a little further west. Could be enough to get CLT with some snow? But I think you are right that it's unlikely that CLT gets a lot. Even RDU getting more than a small amount is pretty low chance right now.

If we could get that scenario then I would feel much more confident. I just don’t know if we have such a significant model error left.

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

If we could get that scenario then I would feel much more confident. I just don’t know if we have such a significant model error left.

For any other kind of setup I'd be 100% no for us, but with this, esp. after seeing Jan 2000 take place, I'm more like 90% no.  This is all about seeing a hardcore phase.. the earlier the better for us inland folk.

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

For any other kind of setup I'd be 100% no for us, but with this, esp. after seeing Jan 2000 take place, I'm more like 90% no.  This is all about seeing a hardcore phase.. the earlier the better for us inland folk.

It just has to be such a perfect setup for us to ever feel any effects from a coastal. 

 

FWIW, the SREF isn’t totally dry.

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

It just has to be such a perfect setup for us to ever feel any effects from a coastal. 

 

FWIW, the SREF isn’t totally dry.

Right, it would basically have to hug the coast.  Still unlikely but can't help but follow this one.  Hopefully someone really cashes in.

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GEFS is locked in tight over the past few runs.  At 78 things don't look to bad, SLP just off Florida looks like it wants to head NNE to just east off HAT with how the isobars are bending.  There is a ridge to it's NE and low to its NW but...

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_14.png

 

then at 84 it heads ENE at 45 degree angle.  We sure can screw up a potential snow storm.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_15.png

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Can someone enlighten me on the precip along the eastern escarpment in WNC?

 


Models are keying in on some moisture developing over the area this afternoon. Could produce a surprise dusting or a bit more per UKMET.

 

Heres the precip map for the next 18 hrs.  Appears to fall as all frozen.

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_18.png

 

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

UK at 60-72...again looks ominous.   Digging the lead wave into central Tx.  It has separated from the NE low too.

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_060_0500.gif

You'd like to see the phasing wave over E South Dakota behind (more to the west of) the lead wave in OK in order to get more height rises in the SE. 12z GFS improved in this regard

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Just now, griteater said:

You'd like to see the phasing wave over E South Dakota behind (more to the west of) the lead wave in OK in order to get more height rises in the SE. 12z GFS improved in this regard

Reminds me of boxing day where the trailing wave needed to dig west a little more.  You have graphics from that?

 

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

You'd like to see the phasing wave over E South Dakota behind (more to the west of) the lead wave in OK in order to get more height rises in the SE. 12z GFS improved in this regard

In 2010 the backside parcel was much more discrete and phasing occurred over the NW Gulf Coast, just east of the Mississippi.  I have RAP graphics somewhere I will try to dig up.  If memory serves entry points in to CONUS for both vorts were slightly west of what is being showed here, the leading vort was also a good bit stronger than this one. 

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4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

In 2010 the backside parcel was much more discrete and phasing occurred over the NW Gulf Coast, just east of the Mississippi.  I have RAP graphics somewhere I will try to dig up.  If memory serves entry points in to CONUS for both vorts were slightly west of what is being showed here, the leading vort was also a good bit stronger than this one. 

Oh yeah, lead wave was a juicy southern streamer 

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