January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

[NCSNOW]

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

Definitely a good trend, with plenty of time to keep coming west.

Yep at h5 we where a nose hair, 6 to 12 hr earlier phase and it's a big hit. That was beyond a baby step that run. 5 days away, ukie and euro pretty tight. You know it'll adjust one way or the other. Does it adjust NW like normal or SE which is the current past 10 day normal? Phases are tricky. That lead shortwave was really delayed imo this run and bought the trailing shortwave more time to catch up futher west , which is what we need. 12z ukie and euro will be interesting tommorow.

[snowlover91]

Usually in phasing scenarios we get the NW trend especially inside 72 hours. It may not happen with this system but I feel better about our chances here than I do the past two systems. 

[goldman75]

On that last euro image, what’s causing it to show more ice pellets than snow?  I’m assuming something in the upper atmosphere is a tad warm.  Just hard to believe with temps in the 20s along the coast of NC and sc that have been that cold for 3-4 days

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, snowlover91 said:

Usually in phasing scenarios we get the NW trend especially inside 72 hours. It may not happen with this system but I feel better about our chances here than I do the past two systems. 

Can agree. Up here during Dec 8-9th, we had a rapid NW trend within 72 hours. March 13-14 2017 and Jan 6-7 also had last minute NW trends. I can mention a ton more, and I feel that this storm will be no different. 

[BullCityWx]

2 hours ago, goldman75 said:

On that last euro image, what’s causing it to show more ice pellets than snow?  I’m assuming something in the upper atmosphere is a tad warm.  Just hard to believe with temps in the 20s along the coast of NC and sc that have been that cold for 3-4 days

It’s hard to say without seeing a full atmospheric sounding. It could be that your best moisture is too shallow and beneath the snow growth layer. 

[goldman75]

06z gfs swings and misses east of the coast again for the Monday and Wednesday threat

[Tar Heel Snow]

16 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

06z gfs swings and misses east of the coast again for the Monday and Wednesday threat

Hopefully UK and Euro continue good trends today

[packbacker]

Been good trends with timing of the two pieces of energy.  Need that first piece of energy to go more neutral tilt quicker so the 2nd piece can catch it, otherwise it's just two pieces of energy within the same flow and they will just follow each other until its to late.  And you can see that big low off the west coast backing up allowing the ridge in the west to stay further west.  Need a little more help from that too.

[packbacker]

GEFS mean perked up but this was skewed by a couple of big members.  But still it has 6 of 20 members that show show in eastern NC.

[msuwx]

18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GEFS mean perked up but this was skewed by a couple of big members.  But still it has 6 of 20 members that show show in eastern NC.

Yep.... 

[nchighcountrywx]

KGSP AFD on Cold Wave

    SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/     AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY: THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD   SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE DEEPENING COLD WAVE.   ANTICIPATE A 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SPRAWLING FROM THE DAKOTAS   TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE   LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST   AREA. A 140+ KT UPPER JETLET WILL STRETCHING OUT JUST NORTH OF THE   REGION ON SUNDAY TO CONTRIBUTE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION,   WHILE A NARROW ZONE OF 900 TO 850 MB MOIST UPGLIDE DEVELOPS AT LOWER   LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. A TRANSIENT LOBE OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE   WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT   SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY   THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH APPROXIMATELY 10 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE   MEMBERS YIELDING LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS,   WESTERN UPSTATE, AND NORTHEAST GA. HOWEVER, THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL   BE VERY DRY AND ANY FORCING IN THE PASSING, CHANNELED VORTICITY   LOBES IS HARD TO FIND SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.     COLDER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL IN FROM THE   NORTH ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS   THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE   FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. FRIGID TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL   INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TEENS EAST. A SLIGHT   UPTICK IN WIND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EASILY   YIELD WIND CHILL ADVISORY VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND   POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE   HWO MENTION FOR COLD WAVE AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE.    

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING  
FCST. THE OP MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE  
PATTERN WHICH FEATURES SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SUBS LEADING TO  
THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF A CA SFC HIGH ENCOMPASSING THE  
ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN A LITTLE ON WED  
AS A STRONG H5 S/W CROSSES THRU THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA  
OF WRN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH ON THU AND  
REINFORCE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THRU THE PERIOD.  
 
MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE 30S EACH DAY EXCEPT WED WHEN 40S  
ARE EXPECTED...WHILE MINS WILL BE MAINTAINED THE TEENS TO L20S  
EACH MORNING. THUS A COLD WAVE THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU THE  
PERIOD. EVEN THO SFC WINDS WONT BE TOO HIGH...APPARENT TEMPS WILL  
DROP INTO ADV/WARN CRITERIA TUE AND THU MORNINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF THE NC MTNS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FAR WRN NC  
MTN -SNSH DURING THE DAY FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND WITHIN  
THE LLVLS...THE MOIST LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW LEADING TO  
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMS. SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL  
LOWER INTO THE FIRE DANGER RANGE TUE/WED...THUS A FIRE WEATHER  
SECTION IS INCLUDED IN THIS AFD.  

[packbacker]

Getting tired of seeing big lows that far south of NF.   If that would just lift out quicker....it eventually does and a ridge builds in which will definitely help the NE.  Hopefully the 12z runs puts us out of our misery...

[Cold Rain]

Ducks on the pond, Pack.  Plus, there was a ring around the moon.  Have a little faith!

[Seminole]

12/30 12Z NAM is one big mess for North Georgia by hr 33. Sleet/Ice event for all of GA north of Macon. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

12/30 12Z NAM is one big mess for North Georgia by hr 33. Sleet/Ice event for all of GA north of Macon. 

 

Yeah I gotta figure its out to lunch.  It still has no support from anything else

[packbacker]

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ducks on the pond, Pack.  Plus, there was a ring around the moon.  Have a little faith!

Well the good news is this will either be a miss or snow.  We don’t have to worry about taint...not sure we have said that in a long long time.  

[packfan98]

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Well the good news is this will either be a miss or snow.  We don’t have to worry about taint...not sure we have said that in a long long time.  

We did last January.  It didn't work out that way...

[packbacker]

4 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

We did last January.  It didn't work out that way...

That was always tenuous with regards to snow vs sleet.  Nobody thought it would be zero snow and mostly rain with some sleet.  

Unless this tracks over/inside HAT we would have to worry but that has like a 2% chance of happening and that’s generous.  

[packbacker]

Where’s the dgex when you need it. And the stupid Atlantic ridge is needed for once.

[mackerel_sky]

Since there's not a thread for the NY Eve threat, I find it very interesting that GSP even mentions a chance of sleet/snow tomorrow night! Say it's very dry and 20% chance or so, but it may have some tiny legs!?

[Wild Weather Monger]

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Where’s the dgex when you need it. And the stupid Atlantic ridge is needed for once.

That is a much better look than the GFS.  Slower with the lead, and the trailer is stronger and quite a bit further SW at Dakota's/Minnesota border rather than NE Minnesota.  

[NCSNOW]

Today is a big day. Trend is our friend. Hope it continues

[packbacker]

3 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

That is a much better look than the GFS.  Slower with the lead, and the trailer is stronger and quite a bit further SW at Dakota's/Minnesota border rather than NE Minnesota.  

 

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Today is a big day. Trend is our friend. Hope it continues

If the GFS and Euro show what the 84 hour NAM shows that would be something.  It seems like the past 2 weeks we get one set of model runs to suck us back in and then the next set pull the rug.  

[packfan98]

21 minutes ago, packbacker said:

That was always tenuous with regards to snow vs sleet.  Nobody thought it would be zero snow and mostly rain with some sleet.  

Unless this tracks over/inside HAT we would have to worry but that has like a 2% chance of happening and that’s generous.  

I recall that for us in the triad region we were supposed to be all snow. The models didn't have any mix for about 100 miles.  Early on, we were wondering if it was going to come north enough to give us good precip.  It kept trending and ended up with a famous sleet storm.

[packbacker]

Just now, packfan98 said:

I recall that for us in the triad region we were supposed to be all snow. The models didn't have any mix for about 100 miles.  Early on, we were wondering if it was going to come north enough to give us good precip.  It kept trending and ended up with a famous sleet storm.

Thank the pesky Atlantic ridge for that.  Now where is it when we need it. 

[snowlover91]

Look at the trend in the nam from 06z to 12z with our two waves. 

06z

12z

[NCSNOW]

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

 

If the GFS and Euro show what the 84 hour NAM shows that would be something.  It seems like the past 2 weeks we get one set of model runs to suck us back in and then the next set pull the rug.  

Yea but ukie and euro have been somewhat consistent in the trend the past 2 or 3 cycles big time slowing the lead wave down and lesser speeding up the trailing vort. We are really close here. I'd love to see trailing vort come in a tick futher west as it enters conus, nam just had it at 84. That would be big hit espeacilly eastern NC, perhaps central NC

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea but ukie and euro have been somewhat consistent in the trend the past 2 or 3 cycles big time slowing the lead wave down and lesser speeding up the trailing vort. We are really close here. I'd love to see trailing vort come in a tick futher west as it enters conus, nam just had it at 84. That would be big hit espeacilly eastern NC, perhaps central NC

I don’t think there’s anyway this storm gets west of a line from Wilson to Fayetteville to Lumberton but I sure hope I am wrong. 

[packbacker]

27 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yea but ukie and euro have been somewhat consistent in the trend the past 2 or 3 cycles big time slowing the lead wave down and lesser speeding up the trailing vort. We are really close here. I'd love to see trailing vort come in a tick futher west as it enters conus, nam just had it at 84. That would be big hit espeacilly eastern NC, perhaps central NC

I still can’t envision how two waves in the same flow catch each other until it rounds the base of the trough.  I guess we get a little sharper trough in the east and really spike the ridge so the 2nd piece dives straight down.  Probably why EPS has virtually nothing west of the immediate coast.  

[Buddy1987]

Gfs @72 making a significant adjustment to the s/w energy as well over the KS/NE. Will see where this goes. 

Edit: meant to put in a positive way. I’m on my phone so I can’t post maps but there is a significant adjustment to kinking it back to the west southwest.